The South China Sea remains a potential obstacle in China-ASEAN relations.

The East Sea will remain a hot spot in 2015 and disputes between China and ASEAN countries are potential obstacles in bilateral relations.

2014 ends with many "storms" in the East Sea

Last year, according to many experts, was a year of many storms in the relationship between ASEAN countries and China. In 2014, China made many arrogant moves to stir up tension in the East Sea.

Through actions such as illegally placing drilling rigs in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), sinking Vietnamese fishing boats, brazenly claiming sovereignty over the East Sea, publishing a vertical map covering 85% of the East Sea area, and illegally constructing in Hoang Sa... China has clearly revealed its ambitions.

New vertical map released by China (AP photo)

China's ambitions have alarmed the United States. After China's above-mentioned actions, the United States declared that it has interests in the East Sea region and issued a resolution on the East Sea, calling on China to respect peace and sovereignty at sea.

In the face of increasing tensions in the East Sea, in 2014, ASEAN demonstrated its responsibility and leading role in maintaining peace, security and stability in the region.

On May 10, 2014, ASEAN Foreign Ministers issued a historic statement on the East Sea, emphasizing the importance of peace, stability, and security at sea. In August 2014, ASEAN countries once again mentioned the East Sea issue through the AMM-47 Joint Communiqué.

The two statements did not mention China, but could be seen as a change in the views of each ASEAN member country. For ASEAN countries, the territorial dispute between ASEAN member countries and China is no longer a bilateral issue, involving only two countries, but a common issue for the entire community.

In 2014, ASEAN strongly promoted solidarity, expressed a common voice and unity on strategic issues in the region.

It can be said that in 2014, ASEAN has strongly promoted solidarity, expressed a common voice and unity in the face of strategic issues in the region. In 2015, ASEAN will move towards forming a common community, with closer ties with member countries. Many experts have questioned whether with its new role, ASEAN will be able to overcome the "storm" in the East Sea next year or not?

The East Sea is "hot" or "cold" depending on China

Responding to the press, Dr. Hoang Anh Tuan, Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Vietnam, said whether the East Sea will continue to heat up in 2015 or not depends on China's upcoming moves.

On December 3, Business World Online published an analysis by Standard & Poor's (S&P), an American financial analysis company, commenting that the situation in the East Sea and Ukraine will remain the biggest geopolitical risks in 2015.

S&P commented that with China's growing political and economic power in the international arena, the country is likely to continue to impose its power on some neighboring countries for quite a long time to come.

In its report on geopolitical risks surrounding sovereignty issues in 2015, S&P assessed that there will be occasional tensions between China and its neighbors in the near future.

S&P added that Beijing is likely to continue new (illegal) exploration activities in the East Sea, and territorial disputes in the region are also likely to continue to prolong tensions in the relationship between this country and some neighboring countries in the region.

If war does break out, it would be a disaster for China as the dispute could severely impact the economic gains the country has accumulated over the past decades. Will China choose war and territorial expansion or choose peaceful prosperity in 2015? Beijing certainly cannot have both, The Conversation said.

The East Sea remains a potential obstacle.

The Diplomat commented on November 13 that the East Sea remains a potential obstacle to China-ASEAN relations. Even China is aware of this.

Despite China's disagreements with ASEAN countries, it still needs ASEAN in economic cooperation projects, The Diplomat said.

China needs Southeast Asian countries to agree on the Maritime Silk Road, which is a maritime complement to the economic Silk Road. While the overland routes have made significant progress, the maritime route remains ambiguous, partly due to concerns from China’s neighbors, The Diplomat noted.

Map of China's maritime (blue) and land (orange) Silk Roads (AFP Photo)

According to The Diplomat, it is difficult for China to increase maritime cooperation with its neighbors while its neighbors feel threatened by China's rapid development of its navy and coast guard.

If tensions in the South China Sea continue to “heat up,” Southeast Asia could become the “missing link” in China’s Maritime Silk Road. India is still uncertain about its participation in the project, and thus the Maritime Silk Road risks sinking if it is boycotted by ASEAN member states.

However, speaking to the Jakarta Post in November 2014, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that the maritime disputes “will not affect regional stability or the overall relations between China and ASEAN.”

Li Keqiang added that China “fully believes that as long as the parties move in the right direction, maintain the momentum of dialogue and consultation, and strengthen practical maritime cooperation, they will be able to properly handle the South China Sea issue.”

Commenting on the above statement, The Diplomat wrote that if China can really work with ASEAN to ensure peace and stability in the East Sea (the first thing is that the parties need to comply with the COC and DOC), then Beijing will probably go a long way towards reducing tensions between China and Southeast Asian countries.

Territorial disputes in the East Sea cannot be resolved soon, but these disputes cannot be allowed to destroy cooperation between China and ASEAN, especially when China wants to establish an important position in the Asia-Pacific region, The Diplomat said./.

According to VOV.VN