Normalizing US-Cuba relations: Both sides need each other!

(Baonghean) - On July 20th, Cuba officially opened its embassy in the United States. To mark this event, Bao Nghe An newspaper conducted an interview with Associate Professor, Major General Le Van Cuong, former Director of the Institute of Strategic Science, Ministry of Public Security.

Reporter:From a researcher's perspective, could the Major General summarize the process of confrontation between the United States and Cuba?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The United States has an area of ​​9.4 million square kilometers, while Cuba has 110,000 square kilometers, meaning the US is 85 times larger than Cuba in terms of area. In terms of population, the US has 320 million people, while Cuba has 12 million, meaning the US population is 27 times larger than Cuba's. In terms of economic scale, the US GDP is 230 times greater than Cuba's.

The Cuban flag is about to be hoisted at the entrance to the U.S. State Department.

The Cuban Revolution succeeded in January 1959. In 1960, the US imposed sanctions on Cuba. In 1961, US-backed Cuban exiles landed at the Bay of Pigs, but were crushed by Cuba. Following this, the US severed all relations with Cuba. From 1962, the US imposed a complete embargo on Cuba. From 1962 to July 19, 2015, over 53 years, ten US presidents successively imposed sanctions and embargoes on Cuba. Not only economic, but the CIA also organized dozens of assassination attempts on President Fidel Castro, all unsuccessful. The CIA trained and financially supported Cuban exile organizations, but also failed. It can be said that 53 years of hostility between the two nations resulted in a loss of $1 trillion USD for Cuba.

However, there were also three instances of positive signs. The first was in 1874 when Gerald Ford, shortly after taking office, attempted to initiate secret negotiations with Cuba, but failed. The second was President Jimmy Caster in 1977, who established interest representative offices in Washington and Havana to normalize relations, but also failed. The third was President Bill Clinton, who at the time had the power to veto the Hembosston Act; however, this failed, and Bill Clinton was forced to sign the 1996 Act, further tightening the embargo against Cuba.

From 1962 to 2015, according to official figures presented by Raul during his meeting with Obama, Cuba suffered losses of 164 billion Euros. Other figures suggest losses of approximately 1 trillion USD. It's noteworthy that for the past 53 years, Cuba has not participated in any financial organization or institution. Participation requires US approval. The Cuban economy faced extreme difficulties after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Fortunately, Cuba recently received financial assistance from Venezuela. However, since 2014, Venezuela's financial difficulties have also pushed this source to its limits. Venezuela itself is also on the verge of collapse.

Cuba is facing extreme difficulties and a severe capital shortage. A Cuban economic leader once stated that Cuba needs at least 1.8 to 2.3 billion euros annually to ensure normal economic development.

Given this situation, Russia and China are willing to provide support, but they cannot resolve the fundamental issues. This requires Cuba to reconsider its international relations, first and foremost with the United States. This is a prerequisite for a meeting between the US and Cuba.

Reporter:General, could you please tell us about the process of restoring relations between the United States and Cuba over the past period?

Major General Le Van Cuong:A remarkable normalization process has taken place between the United States and Cuba, as they both need each other. In December 2013, after 53 years, President Raul Castro shook hands with President Obama for the first time. On December 7, 2014, President Obama called President Raul Castro, and the two sides agreed to move towards normalizing relations. This moment in the history of Cuba-US relations must be considered a turning point. From this point on, Cuba no longer faced direct confrontation with the United States.

On January 21, 2015, President Raul Castro held a meeting lasting over an hour with President Obama. On April 1, 2015, President Raul Castro and President Obama held a closed-door meeting. On May 29, 2015, the US State Department removed Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. On July 1st of this year, President Obama and President Raul Castro decided to establish embassies in each other's countries.

Yesterday, July 20th, the Cuban Embassy officially opened in the United States. The US Embassy's opening will be postponed until around August 20-25, coinciding with Secretary of State John Kerry's visit.

On the US side, establishing an embassy and funding for an ambassador's operations requires approval from both the Senate and the House of Representatives. President Obama has one month left to convince them.

Reporter:According to the Major General, why were both President Obama and President Raul so determined to accelerate the process of normalizing relations between the US and Cuba in recent times?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Regarding President Obama, in my opinion, there are four reasons. First, on January 7, 2014, President Obama stated that after more than half a century of sanctions without results, this method was outdated. A different approach was necessary. Second, stemming from the crisis in Ukraine, President Obama took a proactive step to prevent Cuba from completely aligning with Russia. The possibility of Cuba aligning with Russia and developing close ties with Russia cannot be ruled out. Normalization can be seen as a necessary step to prevent Cuba from falling into the arms of Russia and China. If this were to happen, it would be extremely dangerous. Now, at least Cuba hasn't completely fallen.

The third reason is that normalizing relations with Cuba would restore American influence in Latin America. Almost every year, General Assembly resolutions have called for the lifting of the embargo, which has damaged America's prestige. Finally, Obama wanted to leave a historical mark. During his seven years in office, Obama achieved many economic successes, pulling the US out of the 2008 crisis. However, in foreign policy, Obama had no significant achievements, and the image of the US has even deteriorated considerably in recent years. The crisis in Ukraine, the war against ISIS, the Syrian crisis, the issue of stability in Iraq... all represent failures of the Obama administration. Therefore, normalizing relations with Cuba and achieving the P5+1 agreement on resolving the Iranian nuclear issue are the lasting legacies Obama wanted to leave.

From Raul Castro's perspective, one must look deeply into the Cuban economy to see how extremely difficult the situation is. Cuba does not produce enough to meet domestic needs, let alone export. Currently, the list of goods Cuba needs to import is 27 pages long, while the list of export items is only 6 pages. This is an extremely difficult problem. If the economic issue is not resolved, political problems will arise. The lesson that Venezuela is facing is something Cuba must learn. Therefore, normalizing relations with the US can be seen as the inevitable way out for President Raul and Cuba.

So, the US and Cuba, like Obama and Raul, both needed to meet, and they did!

Reporter:General, could you assess the challenges ahead in the path to normalizing US-Cuba relations?

Major General Le Van Cuong:First, regarding the difficulties, we need to talk about the US side. Currently, both houses of the US Congress are unwilling to normalize relations with Cuba. 53 years of hostility is not easily abandoned within the US elite. Therefore, the first obstacle comes from within the US itself, especially the Senate and House of Representatives, which are dominated by the Republican Party. Even lifting the embargo requires approval from both houses. Therefore, in the remaining time, Obama must find ways to persuade both houses.

On the Cuban side, the veteran revolutionaries who have been with Fidel Castro since 1959 are very cautious in their relations with the United States. They believe that expanding relations with the US could threaten their independence and sovereignty, and the socialist regime. Even within the Cuban population, there are differing opinions. The younger generation and businesspeople are eager to normalize relations with the US.

Therefore, President Raul was essentially "walking between two fires." Moving too fast would alienate the older generation, while moving too slowly would alienate the younger generation. That's why President Raul proactively affirmed that he would not change the political system to reassure the older generation.

Along with that, Cuba also made a number of demands to the US, such as: demanding the closure of RFA, a radio station that specializes in criticizing Cuba; demanding the return of the Oantanamo base; and demanding equal treatment from the US when normalizing relations... However, these demands are not easily accepted. Obstacles to the normalization of relations still face many difficulties.

However, despite the difficulties, the trend toward normalizing relations is inevitable. In fact, there are many favorable conditions for development between the two countries. In recent polls, 50% of Cubans surveyed consider the US a friend, while only 10% consider it an enemy; 97% of Cubans support normalizing relations with the US, and 80% have a positive opinion of Obama. Thus, the majority of Cubans have chosen the path of normalization. When the majority of the people support it, the remaining conservative forces cannot stand in the way. Normalization is the aspiration of the people, and that aspiration benefits Cuba.

Reporter:Thank you, Major General!

Chi Linh Son(Perform)