Normalizing US-Cuba relations: Both sides need each other!

(Baonghean) - On July 20, Cuba officially opened its embassy in the United States. On this occasion, Nghe An Newspaper had an interview with Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong, former Director of the Institute of Strategic Sciences, Ministry of Public Security.

Reporter:From a researcher's perspective, can the Major General summarize the confrontation between the US and Cuba?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The US has an area of ​​9.4 million km2, while Cuba has 110,000 km2, the US is 85 times larger than Cuba in terms of area. In terms of population, the US has 320 million people, while Cuba has 12 million people, the US is 27 times larger than Cuba. In terms of economic scale, the US GDP is 230 times larger than Cuba's GDP.

The Cuban flag is set to be raised at the entrance to the US State Department.

The Cuban Revolution succeeded in January 1959. In 1960, the US sanctioned Cuba. In 1961, the US-backed Cuban exile forces landed at the Bay of Pigs and were defeated by Cuba. After that, the US cut off all relations with Cuba. From 1962, the US imposed a complete embargo on Cuba. From 1962 to July 19, 2015, over 53 years, 10 US Presidents took turns embargoing and punishing Cuba. Not only economically, the CIA also organized dozens of assassination attempts on President Fidel Castro but failed. The CIA trained and financially supported Cuban exile organizations but also failed. It can be said that the 53 years of the two countries living in hostility caused Cuba to lose 1 trillion USD.

However, there were also three positive signs. The first time was in 1874 when Gerald Ford, when he first took office, intended to initiate secret negotiations with Cuba but failed. The second time was when President Jimmy Carter, in 1977, established representative offices in Washington and Lahabana to normalize relations but failed. The third time was when President Bill Clinton, at that time he had enough power to veto the Hembosston Act, but this failed, Bill Clinton still had to sign the 1996 Act to continue tightening the embargo against Cuba.

From 1962 to 2015, according to official figures that Raul mentioned in his meeting with Mr. Obama, Cuba suffered a loss of 164 billion Euros. According to other figures, Cuba suffered a loss of about 1,000 billion USD. It is worth mentioning that in the past 53 years, Cuba has not participated in any organization or financial institution. To participate, it must have the consent of the United States. The Cuban economy after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe was extremely difficult. Fortunately, Cuba has recently received funding from Venezuela. Since 2014, Venezuela has been in difficulty, so this source has reached its smallest limit. Venezuela itself is also facing the limit of collapse.

Cuba is in extreme difficulty, severely lacking capital. A Cuban economic leader once said that Cuba needs at least 1.8 to 2.3 billion euros annually to ensure normal economic development.

In such a situation, Russia and China are ready to help, but they cannot solve the fundamental problems. That requires Cuba to re-evaluate its international relations, first of all with the United States. This is the condition for the United States and Cuba to meet.

Reporter:Major General, can you tell us about the process of restoring relations between the US and Cuba in recent times?

Major General Le Van Cuong:The US and Cuba have undergone a spectacular normalization process, because they both need each other. In December 2013, after 53 years, President Raul Castro shook hands with President Obama for the first time. On December 7, 2014, President Obama called President Raul Castro and the two sides agreed to normalize relations. The history of Cuba-US relations must take this moment as a milestone marking a turning point. From now on, Cuba will no longer directly confront the US.

On January 21, 2015, President Raul had a meeting with President Obama that lasted more than an hour. On April 1, 2015, President Raul Castro and President Obama had a secret meeting. On May 29, 2015, the US State Department removed Cuba from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism. On July 1, President Obama and President Raul decided to establish embassies in the two countries.

Yesterday, July 20, the Cuban Embassy officially opened in the United States. The US Embassy had to be postponed until around August 20-25, scheduled to coincide with the visit of Secretary of State John Kerry.

On the US side, to establish an embassy and fund its operations, it must be approved by the Senate and the House of Representatives. President Obama has one more month to convince them.

Reporter:According to the Major General, why are both President Obama and President Raul so determined to speed up the process of normalizing relations between the US and Cuba as in the past?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Regarding President Obama, in my opinion, there are four reasons. First, on January 7, 2014, President Obama said that more than half a century of embargo without results, this method is outdated. We must change to another method. Second, from the crisis in Ukraine, President Obama took a step forward, avoiding Cuba falling completely into Russia. It is not impossible that Cuba falls into Russia, having close relations with Russia. Normalization can be seen as a necessary action to avoid Cuba falling into the arms of Russia and China. If this happens, it will be extremely dangerous. Now, at least Cuba will not fall completely.

The third reason is that normalizing relations with Cuba will restore US influence in the Latin American region. Almost every year, the General Assembly resolution recommends that the US lift the embargo, which affects the US's reputation. Finally, Obama wants to leave a historical mark. After 7 years in power, Obama has had many economic successes, pulling the US out of the quagmire of the 2008 crisis. However, in foreign affairs, Obama has not had any significant achievements, and the US image has even declined significantly in recent years. The crisis in Ukraine, the fight against IS, the Syrian crisis, the issue of stability in Iraq... are all failures of the Obama administration. Therefore, normalizing relations with Cuba and reaching the P5+1 Agreement on resolving the nuclear issue with Iran are the marks Obama wants to leave.

As for Raul Castro, one must look deeply into the Cuban economy to see that they are in extreme difficulty. Cuba cannot produce enough for domestic demand, let alone export. Up to this point, the list of goods Cuba needs to import is 27 pages long, while the list of goods for export is only 6 pages. This is an extremely difficult problem. If the economy cannot solve it, political problems will arise. The lesson that Venezuela is facing is something that Cuba must learn from. Therefore, normalizing relations with the US can be seen as an inevitable way out for President Raul and Cuba.

So, America and Cuba, as well as Obama and Raul, both needed to meet and they did!

Reporter:Can the Major General assess the difficulties ahead on the path to normalizing US-Cuba relations?

Major General Le Van Cuong:First of all, speaking of difficulties, we need to talk about the US side. Currently, both houses of the US Congress do not want to normalize relations with Cuba. After 53 years of hostility, this is not easy to get rid of among the US elite. Therefore, the first obstacle comes from within the US itself, especially the Senate and House of Representatives, which are controlled by the Republican Party. Even lifting the embargo must be approved by both houses. Therefore, in the remaining time, Obama must do everything possible to convince these two houses.

On the Cuban side, the veteran revolutionary forces who have joined Fidel Castro since 1959 are very cautious in their relations with the United States. They believe that expanding relations with the United States could threaten the loss of independence, sovereignty, and socialism. Even among the Cuban people, there are many different views. The young and business people really want to normalize relations with the United States.

Therefore, President Raul had to “swing between two fires”. Going too fast would upset the old generation, going too slow would upset the young generation. Therefore, President Raul proactively affirmed that he would not change the political regime to reassure the old generation.

Along with that, Cuba also made many demands to the US such as: requesting to remove the RFA radio station that specializes in criticizing Cuba; requesting to return the Oantanamo base; requesting that the US must treat them equally when normalizing... However, these demands are not easily accepted. Obstacles to the roadmap for normalizing relations still face many difficulties.

However, despite the difficulties, the trend of normalizing relations will be inevitable. In fact, there are many favorable conditions for development between the two countries. In recent polls, up to 50% of Cubans surveyed said that the US is a friend, only 10% said that the US is an enemy; 97% of Cubans support normalizing relations with the US, 80% of Cubans have a good opinion of Obama. Thus, the majority of Cubans have chosen the path of normalization. When the majority of people support it, the remaining conservative forces cannot hinder it. Normalization is the aspiration of the people and that aspiration brings benefits to Cuba.

Reporter:Thank you, Major General!

Chi Linh Son(Perform)