Decisive step in Egypt's political transition roadmap

(Baonghean) -On January 14, Egypt began a referendum on a draft revised constitution, amid heightened security and ongoing anti-government protests. Although it took place quite late compared to the schedule outlined by interim President Atly Mansour, this vote still showed that Egypt's political transition roadmap is on the right track since the coup that overthrew the government of former President Mohamed Morsi.

According to the Central Election Commission of Egypt, about 54 million voters out of a total population of 85 million are eligible to vote at more than 30,000 polling stations across the country on January 14 and 15. Previously, from January 8 to 12, Egyptian citizens living abroad also went to vote. Although only 15% of the total of more than 680,000 Egyptians registered to participate in the referendum - a much lower rate than the previous referendum, the results showed that the percentage of voters living abroad who voted in favor of the draft constitution was very high. The "yes" vote rate was 100% in Palestine, 99.5% in Los Angeles (USA) and 99% in Rome (Italy). In addition, over 98% was also the result achieved in a series of other locations such as Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia, Paris (France), Austria, etc. According to the Election Commission, the official vote counting results will be announced immediately after the end of the domestic vote tomorrow.

Egyptians look at the voter list at a polling station.

According to analysts, the draft constitution is likely to be approved with over 70% of the votes in favor. A survey conducted by the Egyptian Public Opinion Research Center nationwide from December 24 to 26 showed that 74% of respondents said they would vote in favor of the new constitution, while only 3% said they would vote against it. The possibility of the draft constitution being approved with a high percentage is not only based on the survey numbers, but also on the analysis of the psychology of the Egyptian people - who are fed up with the violence and disruption of daily life due to street protests by Islamists in Cairo as well as in other cities across the country. On the other hand, with 247 articles, the draft amended constitution is considered to better ensure the basic rights of the people and the separation of powers between the executive, legislative and judicial branches of Egypt. For the Egyptian people today, “full stomachs and warm clothes” is the most immediate desire, not the extremist religious agendas of Islamic forces.

Although supported by many people, the new draft constitution has been strongly opposed by Islamist forces because it greatly affects the interests of the force that has a great influence in Egypt's political and social life. The new constitution will lead to a complete ban on Islamist parties in political activities and help consolidate the power of the military. In addition, this constitution also removes additional provisions considered similar to Islamic regulations that the majority Muslim parliament introduced under former President Morsi. That is why Islamist forces firmly boycotted the referendum, and continued to carry out violent attacks on security forces at many locations across the country. Therefore, to ensure security at polling stations, Egypt had to deploy nearly 400 soldiers, police and more than 600 mobile combat units with the support of aircraft and armored vehicles.

This referendum is considered an important test for the Egyptian interim government. If the government succeeds in holding a free and transparent vote without any major security incidents, it can declare victory in the fight against the Islamists. In addition, it is also a ticket for liberal and secular forces to take power in a "legitimate" manner after the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled to take place before mid-year. And more importantly, it shows the consensus of the Egyptian people, who have always been looking forward to the day when the severe crisis that has lasted for nearly 3 years after suffering the "Arab Spring" earthquake in the land of the Pyramids ends. However, whether the interim government can achieve this "satisfactory" outcome or not depends on the next moves of the Islamists. There are still concerns that the risk of being marginalized will fuel a wave of violent Islamist protests, leading them to devote all their energies to a war against the government.

Thuy Ngoc