The whole country wants to have boys, Vietnam lacks 4 million women

Not only is Vietnam lazy and prefers to have sons, the Vietnamese population is aging at one of the fastest rates in the world.

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Over the past 60 years, Vietnam has successfully implemented family planning, helping to reduce the birth rate by tens of millions of people. However, we are facing new population problems, including 3 major challenges that directly impact all aspects of economic and social life.

The whole country wants to have a son.

The Deputy General Department of Population and Family Planning said that Vietnam is currently among the 15 countries with gender imbalance at birth.

Although it appeared late, the gender imbalance in Vietnam is increasing very quickly, spreading from urban to rural areas and across 6/6 territories. The more economically well-off and educated people are, the more they choose their gender at birth.

The gender imbalance at birth in Vietnam is increasingly serious.

Mr. Tan cited that in 2006, there were 109.8 boys/100 girls, then by 2013 this number increased to 113.8/100 and is currently 112 boys/100 girls. This ratio in Hanoi is 114 boys/100 girls and it is said that it is very difficult to bring it back to a natural balance.

In particular, some suburban districts of Hanoi have sex ratios at birth reaching the red alert threshold such as: Ung Hoa (132.6 boys/100 girls); Me Linh (127/100); Ba Vi (123.6/100); Soc Son (123.5/100); Son Tay (123.2/100); My Duc (121.9/100).

Mr. Tan warned that if this situation continues, by 2050, Vietnam will lack 2.3-4.3 million women, while currently there is only a shortage of a few hundred thousand.

At that time, the family structure will break down, women will marry early, the divorce rate, singlehood will be high, domestic violence, gender violence, loss of security and order, trafficking of women and children, HIV/AIDS will increase...

Risk of empty houses and empty classrooms

Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Affairs, said that in the 1960s, on average, each Vietnamese woman gave birth to about 6.8 children. From 2005 to now, Vietnam has maintained a replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children/woman. However, this rate is gradually decreasing.

Professor Cu cited that many provinces and cities have very low birth rates, such as Ho Chi Minh City in 2015 with only 1.45 children/woman; Ba Ria-Vung Tau: 1.56, Binh Duong: 1.59...

Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu

The short-term benefits of low fertility include rapid declines in maternal and child mortality; high school enrollment rates at all levels; declines in poverty as family size and population quality increase.

However, in the long term, it will create many serious challenges for development. Population decline will lead to empty houses, empty classrooms, and roads with few people. High internal and international migration, increasingly scarce labor, rapid aging...

“Many countries in the world have low birth rates that will last until the middle of this century, and the elderly will account for half, or even 60% of the population, such as Japan and South Korea... These countries are struggling to deal with the severe consequences at high costs, including expanding immigration and importing labor,” Professor Cu analyzed.

The world's fastest aging population

The Deputy General Department of Population and Family Planning said that Vietnam began to enter the aging population since 2011, when the proportion of people over 60 years old accounted for over 10%, with about 11 million people.

According to calculations, by 2030, the proportion of elderly people in our country will account for 17% (aged population) and by 2050 will enter the super-aged population. In the Asian region, Japan is currently the country with the super-aged population (the proportion of elderly people accounts for over 40%).

Notably, Vietnam’s population aging rate is among the fastest in the world. While countries with developed economies take decades, even centuries, to transition to an aging population, Vietnam only takes 17-20 years.

For example, France took 100 years, Sweden 85 years, Australia 73 years, America 69 years, Canada 65 years...

In addition, the average life expectancy of Vietnamese people has increased, but the burden of disease is large. On average, each elderly person suffers from 2.69 diseases, mainly non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, etc.

Meanwhile, Vietnam's economy is still at an average level, aging before it has become rich, contrary to the order of other countries. This will be a big challenge for the social security system.

According to VNN