Tensions in the Senate battle in the US midterm elections

The Senate race is tight and which party wins the Senate will likely only be determined later this year or early next year.

On November 5, American voters will go to the polls to elect the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. While Republicans are almost certain to retain the House, control of the Senate will have to wait until the vote count is finalized, possibly early next year.

Republican candidate Mitch McConnell waves to supporters during a campaign rally in Louisville, Kentucky (photo: Reuters)

In the most expensive midterm election in US history, with a cost of nearly 4 billion USD, American voters will vote for all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 36 members of the Senate and 36 governors. This important election is not only decisive for the remaining two years of President Obama's term, but also a "warm-up" step for all parties to prepare for the 2016 presidential and congressional elections.

At present, the Republican Party holds a majority in the House of Representatives with a ratio of 234-201 seats while the Democratic Party controls the Senate with a ratio of 55-45 seats. With the Democratic Party considered to have accepted defeat due to its inability to close the large gap with the Republican Party in the House of Representatives, the current race is mainly focused on the Senate.

Although the latest polls show a very close race between the two parties' candidates, analysts say the Republicans are likely to gain at least six seats, enough to take back the Senate from the Democrats, something they have not done in nearly a decade.

Historical and current factors are on the side of the Republican Party. According to the results of the poll released by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal on November 4, 46% of American voters support the Republican Party controlling Congress and 45% have the opposite opinion. Meanwhile, the Pew Research Center said that Republican voters are more interested in the midterm elections than Democratic voters, which means that the Democrats will lose a large number of votes.

Two years ago, the votes of Latino, African-American and Asian voters, who tend to support the Democratic Party, contributed significantly to Mr. Obama's victory in the presidential election. Another noteworthy statistic is that the incumbent President's party almost always loses seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives during his second term. Sadly, the percentage of Americans who support President Obama has never exceeded 50% during the past year.

The next disadvantage for the Democratic Party is that although the US economy is growing, the employment situation is continuously improving, and the budget deficit is significantly reduced, most Americans still feel insecure about the sustainability of the labor market as well as about household income, which is still only at the level of the 1980s after inflation.

If the Republicans take over Congress, President Obama could find himself in a difficult position, relying on the Senate to balance the House of Representatives he has relied on for the past four years. With a majority in the Senate, Democrats control the agenda, set the rules, and decide which bills get debated and voted on, but that buffer would be gone if the Senate were in Republican hands.

Even though he still has the power to veto, President Obama will have to spend a lot of time and effort dealing with Republicans, instead of focusing on the issues that he is prioritizing. If so, American politics will continue to be paralyzed when no major bills or policies are passed in the next 2 years.

However, according to analysts, the Republican Party, even though it may win, will not win enough 60 seats in the Senate to be able to pass major bills that require the support of at least 2/3 of the Senators, and therefore will still have to find a way to compromise with the Democrats.

In addition, the heavy criticism from the American public about the conflict between Congress and the government in recent times will also make the Republicans less tough, and at the same time, they will seek to demonstrate their leadership ability to compete with the Democrats in the 2016 Presidential and Congressional elections, a time when the rate of Democratic voters going to the polls will most likely be higher.

If the Republicans compromise, the two sides will likely find common ground on some sensitive issues such as immigration, the Obamacare health care reform law, etc., while President Obama himself is trying to create certain marks to create a foundation for the Democratic candidate in the elections in 2 years.

The Senate race is very tight and some states like Louisiana or Georgia are likely to have runoff elections because no candidate is expected to win a majority of the vote. If so, the party that wins the Senate will not be determined until late this year or early next year./.

According to VOV