Does the tariff gamble pose a political risk for Trump?

"Tariff Liberation Day"

According to Reuters, experts believe it will take years to restore manufacturing in the US, reshape supply chains, and bring production back to the country – goals that President Trump, a Republican, and his supporters hope to achieve through tariff policies.

Meanwhile, consumers may face higher prices, the economy risks recession, and allies may impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods – consequences that Trump calls "disruption," but voters may not be ready to accept, with the midterm elections approaching next year.

Trump's Republican Party currently controls both the House and the Senate by a narrow margin. If the damage from his tariff policies leads to a defeat in the midterm elections, control of one or both chambers could fall to the opposing Democratic Party.

“He (Trump) has a very high tolerance for pressure, but that could translate into real pain at the polling stations in November 2026,” said Mike Dubke, former communications director for President Trump during his first term. “The worrying thing is, when will we see the benefits that he and his advisors believe they will reap? Because he only has 18 months before the midterm elections.”

Economists argue that tariffs are essentially a form of tax on consumers, and according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, a majority of Americans – 70%, including 62% of Republicans – believe that increased tariffs will raise the price of food and other consumer goods.

Approximately 53% of survey participants agreed that increasing tariffs would do more harm than good, while 31% disagreed. The remainder were unsure or did not provide an answer.

Only 31% of respondents agreed that American workers would benefit from the country imposing tariffs on imported goods, while 48% disagreed.

“The main risk right now is economic,” said Lanhee Chen, a research fellow at the Hoover Institute and former adviser to Republican leaders such as Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio, referring to tariff policy.

"One of the immediate risks is prices, and what that means for a president who was elected with a promise to lower consumer prices," he said.
"Another risk is the possibility of the economy entering a recession," Chen noted, while warning that describing the economic impact is purely speculative and expressing support for using tariffs as a public policy tool.

Trump promised during his presidential campaign to bring prices down, and voters' concerns about inflation have put his opponent in the 2024 election – former Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party – at a disadvantage.

On April 2nd, Mr. Trump announced that the new tariffs, including 34% on Chinese goods (in addition to the previously applied 20%) and 20% on goods from the European Union, would fill the US treasury.

"Now is the time for us to grow prosperous, and from there use trillions of dollars to cut taxes and pay down public debt – and all of that will happen very quickly," he said.

However, tariffs are paid by American importers, not exporting countries, and this additional cost is often passed on to consumers.

Election risks

Signs of discontent with Trump began to emerge within the Republican Party.

Republican candidates won two special elections in Florida on April 1st, but by much smaller margins than Trump's victory in the state last year. In Wisconsin – a key swing state that Trump previously won – a liberal candidate won a seat on the state's Supreme Court, seen as a rejection of Trump and his billionaire advisor Elon Musk.

On April 2, the U.S. Senate passed a bill aimed at ending new tariffs on Canada by a vote of 51-48, with four Republican senators supporting it. By April 3, one of those four, along with a senior Democratic senator, introduced a bill to limit Trump's authority to impose tariffs. However, both bills are likely to fail in the House of Representatives.

Trump's tariff announcement sent US and global stock markets plummeting. The US president largely dismissed this on April 3rd. "The market will boom, stocks will soar, the country will thrive, and the rest of the world will find a way to reach an agreement," he told reporters at the White House.

“Liberation Day seems to be about freeing American businesses and consumers from their money,” said a former Republican congressional aide, who requested anonymity. “You can’t make an aircraft carrier stop instantly, and you can’t reshape the entire global economy in a single day.”

The White House, which blames former President Joe Biden for inflation, claims the Trump administration is doing everything it can to lower the cost of living and dismisses concerns about the political consequences of his trade policies.

“President Trump’s one and only priority is the welfare of the American people. His historic trade actions… reflect a commitment to restoring American greatness to our industries and workers – not to getting bogged down in meaningless political theories,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said.

Biden, a Democrat, has also sought to boost domestic manufacturing and production through three landmark laws, totaling trillions of dollars, aimed at rebuilding American infrastructure and encouraging investment in strategic sectors such as semiconductor manufacturing, energy, and electric vehicles.

The Democratic Party is likely to attack the Republican Party over the economic impact of tariffs.

The robust economy that Trump inherited from Biden – with growth projected at nearly 3% in 2024, unemployment around 4%, and inflation below 3% – is showing signs of weakening, although the “hard” data that economists use to measure it, such as gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, do not yet show clear evidence of a short-term recession.

However, surveys measuring confidence in the economic outlook among households and businesses have fallen sharply in the past two months since Trump began pushing his tariff policies, a stark contrast to the optimistic atmosphere when he was elected in November.

“From a political risk perspective, this is a really bad idea,” commented Philip Luck, director of the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former deputy chief economist at the State Department under Biden, noting the possibility of retaliation from U.S. trading partners.

Barbara Trish, a professor of political science at Grinnell College in Iowa, argues that Trump is facing considerable anxiety from voters, but he has previously avoided serious criticism.

“How many times have observers actually thought, ‘OK, this will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, the Teflon coating (referring to Trump’s immunity from scandals) will finally be scratched –’ but then it didn’t happen?” she said.

Small business owners have had mixed reactions.

In Baltimore, a city with a tradition of supporting the Democratic Party, Drew Greenblatt, owner of Marlin Steel, said that Trump's tariffs are helping to increase orders because customers are switching to products made in the U.S.

But Michelle Lim Warner, owner of DCanter wine shop in Washington, D.C., has a more pessimistic view. European wines make up two-thirds of her inventory, she says, “Who would be willing to pay $75 for a bottle that used to cost only $25?”