Is the door closing for Ukraine peace talks?
(Baonghean.vn) - The opportunity for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which could have happened only a month or two ago, is rapidly narrowing as Russia gains confidence in its advantage on the battlefield.
The US Responsible Statecraft newspaper reported on January 26 that the main topic of the US this week is related to the issue of providing emergency weapons to Ukraine. Two senior officials of President Joe Biden's administration told the US Congress that if a decision on the next aid package for Ukraine is not passed soon, Russia could win on the battlefield within months, or even weeks.
According to Responsible Statecraft, while European leaders are trying to help the Ukrainian Armed Forces replenish their arsenals, without US support it will be difficult to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses and keep its economy from collapsing. Moreover, it is increasingly likely that any future funding to Kiev, if any, will focus solely on providing military support, to the exclusion of economic support.
Responsible Statecraft argues that the US failure to provide economic assistance to Kiev would severely damage the Ukrainian government, which currently relies on US and European money to pay state employees and perform many core functions.
Meanwhile, the European Union (EU), which has been much more generous with budget aid to Kiev than with military aid, faces internal difficulties in finding future funding for Ukraine.
As the EU considers a new $54 billion aid package, all eyes are on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has long opposed support for Ukraine. But the West still holds out hope that Orban will change his mind, as he did when he voted for Ukraine to join the EU, in exchange for $11 billion in EU funds for Hungary.
Responsible Statecraft argues that all this uncertainty has put Ukraine in a difficult position, and that it should be prepared for President Zelensky and Ukrainian officials to blame the West for the military failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
At the same time, Responsible Statecraft believes that the dynamics of the developments show that the opportunity for peace negotiations, which was very possible a month or two ago, is now rapidly narrowing, as Russia is confident in its advantage on the battlefield./.
