Cut the exchange rate fever
In response to rumors that it will adjust the exchange rate, the State Bank (SBV) has affirmed: It will not adjust the exchange rate and has many forms of intervention to stabilize the market.
The current exchange rate fever is market speculation.
Speculative factors causing volatility cannot be ruled out.
Immediately after the State Bank adjusted the average interbank exchange rate up by 1%, the trend of increasing the listed exchange rate at commercial banks (CBs) and especially in the free market was clearly revealed. Even in some banks, the situation of two exchange rates reappeared. In this adjustment, the average interbank exchange rate is 21,036 VND, commercial banks are not allowed to buy or sell lower than 20,826 VND and not higher than 21,246. However, in reality, many enterprises had to buy USD at banks at 21,500 VND/USD with related costs such as money transfer, foreign currency conversion... all included in the selling price. Enterprises even had to buy on the free market at up to 21,800-21,900 VND/USD.
The reason for the increase in exchange rate comes from the increased demand for foreign currency to import goods for year-end production of enterprises. Due to the fear of price increase, many enterprises that do not really need it immediately rush to buy; meanwhile, people and enterprises with surplus foreign currency do not want to sell because they expect the price to increase further. Therefore, "the phenomenon of exchange rate fever in recent days may have psychological and immediate factors, this bubble will deflate quickly if there is government intervention" - an analyst.
To quell the speculative fever of the market, on the afternoon of July 10, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Le Minh Hung sent a message from the operator with a firm affirmation: There will be no exchange rate adjustment and resolute measures will be applied to stabilize the exchange rate, including strong intervention in selling foreign currency to support market liquidity.
| Immediately after the tough message from the operator, the exchange rate in the market cooled down, especially in the free market, the USD price decreased by 100-200 VND in both buying and selling, trading around 21,480-21,580 VND/USD. The listed exchange rate at commercial banks remained unchanged, BIDV and Agribank had the lowest buying price, respectively 21,220 VND/USD and 21,210 VND/USD. |
Foreign exchange surplus at high level
The State Bank of Vietnam said that the overall balance of payments in 2013 is expected to have a surplus of 5 billion USD. The foreign currency status of banks and transaction turnover with customers has not changed dramatically. Mr. Hung affirmed: The exchange rate movements in recent days are mainly influenced by psychological factors, not from the imbalance of foreign currency supply and demand; Vietnamese dong liquidity is abundant, so some banks have increased their buying activities. Of course, it is not excluded that some illegal foreign currency traders in the free market are taking advantage of the opportunity to speculate and manipulate prices for illegal profits.
According to the State Bank of Vietnam's forecast, Vietnam's international balance of payments will continue to have a surplus in the last 6 months of the year. A survey of foreign currency demand in the third quarter of 2013, conducted by the State Bank of Vietnam for a number of credit institutions with large foreign exchange turnover, also showed that demand from customers has increased but not significantly, with little possibility of putting pressure on the exchange rate. Mr. Hung added that, from the beginning of the year, the State Bank of Vietnam affirmed that the exchange rate fluctuation in the whole year of 2013 will only be 2-3%, so in the coming time, this agency will apply all necessary measures to ensure the stability of the exchange rate.
According to (baocongthuong) - PH
