The war entered a crucial phase, Russia and Ukraine changed tactics and changed targets.

Change tactics

Ukrainian forces are locked in a standoff with Russian infantry and armor. Severodonetsk – at the end of Ukraine’s eastern defense line – is now in danger of being cut in two.

The Russian army continues to tighten its siege on the city while slowly advancing north in an attempt to cut off the roads leading to Bakhmut. Russian infantry and armor are also moving south, towards the strategic towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which have important rail junctions for the movement of equipment and vehicles.

Ukrainian soldiers sit on armored vehicles moving near the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Photo: NY Times.

These two Russian thrusts were designed to create an ever-tightening pincer movement until Severodonetsk and Lysychansk were cut off from the rest of Ukraine and Ukrainian units were completely encircled within.

The war is now in its fourth month and both sides are slowly changing tactics. The Russian army has retained its best units for the Donbass campaign, while consolidating its positions elsewhere by deploying reserves equipped with older tanks such as the T-62.

As Ukrainian air defense units withdrew from Severodonetsk to avoid encirclement, Russian forces, which were threatened by portable anti-aircraft weapons, could operate more safely. This allowed the Russian air force to support ground attacks, pouring firepower into besieged cities.

However, Russia also suffered certain losses. In early May, several Russian battalions attempted to cross the Siversky Donets River in order to cut off the Ukrainian defenses in two cities on either side of the river. To cross the river, Russia was forced to assemble pontoon bridges, but their activities were detected by Ukrainian drones. As a result, Ukrainian artillery units conducted a raid that destroyed the bridge, causing heavy losses to the Russian units.

Despite the difficulties in implementing the new tactics, Russian forces still made progress on the battlefield. Supply lines were shortened, objectives were narrowed, and success came more slowly but surely after the Russian high command learned the lessons from the early stages of the military campaign and adapted them to the Eastern front.

Both Russia and Ukraine are now using drones and artillery effectively. Artillery is the main weapon in the Eastern theater of war. Artillery attacks can be devastating for the enemy as they have little cover.

Foreign weapons systems, rocket artillery, tanks and multiple rocket launchers provided by the West to Ukraine may change the balance on the battlefield somewhat, but they also have their own limitations.

Change target

In addition to tactics, the objectives of the parties have also changed. The focus is now on important transport nodes, such as railways, because in the Donbass region, soldiers and military vehicles have to travel long distances from each other. Therefore, controlling these intersections brings many advantages.

Trains can transport hundreds of soldiers and thousands of tons of equipment to the front lines. This is very useful for each country's army, helping them sustain attacks on enemy targets.

Russia has not yet overwhelmed Ukraine’s air force and it does not appear to be trying to do so. Moscow is gaining certain advantages by using its experienced forces, as well as keeping casualties relatively low compared to the early stages of the military campaign. The air force has been more effective in supporting infantry and armored units.

The US and its NATO allies, despite massive arms transfers to Ukraine, have refused to provide the country with missile systems that can strike Russian territory for fear of being drawn into a direct confrontation with Moscow.

Logistical challenges

Prolonged conflict not only affects the morale of soldiers, but also wears down the weapons each country uses. Gun barrels wear out after firing thousands of rounds, lose accuracy and need to be replaced. Tracks on armored vehicles need regular maintenance. Many damaged vehicles need to be repaired. But these jobs require a lot of time and manpower.

While the Russian military faces many difficulties in maintenance, Ukraine also faces a big challenge when repairing many foreign military equipment for which it is not familiar or has few spare parts. Moreover, Ukraine lacks human resources in professional maintenance teams that can repair damaged military equipment such as tanks or artillery and make them work effectively again.

Analysts say one of Russia's strategically clever moves is to attack Ukrainian repair facilities behind the front lines to disrupt Ukrainian equipment repair and maintenance work, with the ultimate goal of reducing the number of weapons and vehicles available to the enemy on the battlefield.

But Russia is also starting to run out of armor and artillery as the war takes a heavy toll on its equipment and its economy struggles with sanctions. The conflict is now focused on supply lines and logistics, and attacks are focused on small targets rather than large ones.

According to information from President Zelensky's advisor - Mr. Mikhail Podolyak, Ukraine loses about 100 to 200 soldiers every day in Donbass. Kiev is losing its best soldiers as its forces are caught in the vortex of a fierce war that shows no signs of cooling down.

The fighting has been going on for months now and there seems to be a hidden race between Russia and Ukraine to see which side will be exhausted first in this new phase of the conflict, as well as whether the West can continue to arm Ukraine as Russia gradually achieves its goals.

The escalation of the conflict could prompt Russia to call a general mobilization to increase the size of its military. The threat of nuclear weapons use could become a reality one day if the country feels seriously threatened. The West’s biggest fear is that the conflict could quickly spiral out of control, even leading to nuclear war – something all sides, including Russia, want to avoid.