The conflict in Yemen continues despite a "red alert" for the humanitarian crisis!

(Baonghean) - Over 80% of Yemen's population, or approximately 21.1 million people, are awaiting food supplies, with 13 million facing food shortages and in need of urgent aid. Given this situation, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen has been raised to emergency level 3 by the United Nations – the highest level in over 10 days. However, the last glimmer of hope – the humanitarian ceasefire proposed by the UN – was shattered just hours after it officially came into effect on the night of July 10th. It seems the suffering of the people there is still insufficient to deter the parties involved, as long as strategic interests remain unfulfilled.

The ceasefire was practically meaningless.

A UN-brokered ceasefire, effective from 11:59 PM local time on July 10th until the end of Ramadan on July 17th, is an emergency measure and the UN's last hope to address the urgent food needs of 13 million Yemenis, who are facing their worst crisis since the outbreak of hostilities. The protracted conflict and civil war have left over 80% of Yemen's population in need of humanitarian aid. The UN has also planned to provide approximately $1.6 billion by the end of this year to supply food, water, and shelter to around 11.7 million people most severely affected by the conflict. However, dozens of aid shipments remain stalled at borders and cannot reach the population due to ongoing fighting and airstrikes. The recent ceasefire has offered little improvement. Just two hours after the humanitarian ceasefire officially took effect, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition resumed airstrikes targeting objectives in Taiz, Yemen's third-largest city in western Yemen. The attacks followed intense ground fighting between Houthi rebels and opposition forces in the same city.

Approximately 13 million people in Yemen are facing food shortages and are in need of urgent aid. Source: BBC

As usual, both sides immediately blamed each other for violating the ceasefire. While the Houthi accused opposition fighters of trying to push them out of their positions, the other side claimed that the Houthi rebels were exploiting the ceasefire to expand their control. In fact, just 30 minutes before the ceasefire was due to take effect, coalition aircraft led by Saudi Arabia continued airstrikes on the city of Taiz. Houthi rebel leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi stated that the ceasefire agreement would be difficult to succeed. For his part, a Saudi Arabian official also declared the ceasefire "useless," adding that the coalition had not received "any evidence of commitment from the other side." These back-and-forth exchanges are understandable, as Yemen has from the beginning been a battleground for influence between the Saudi Arabia-led Arab coalition and Iran, which backs the Houthi rebels. At a deeper level, it is the tension and discord between Sunni and Shiite Islam in the volatile Middle East and North Africa region.

The Arab world fears the US will join forces with Iran.

Observers also believe that Yemen is becoming a crucial battleground in restoring the strategic balance of influence between the Arab world and Iran. The airstrike campaign by the Saudi Arabia-led Arab coalition reflects the frustration and anger of the Arab world over Iran's expanding role and influence in the region. Undisguisedly expressing his frustration, UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed stated that Iran is interfering in the conflict in Yemen and other areas in the region in the hope of establishing normal relations with Tehran. Furthermore, this frustration is accompanied by unease as nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group (Britain, France, the US, Russia, China, and Germany) are entering their final stages. Naturally, this fear is understandable for Arab countries, given that their ally, the US, is increasingly aligning itself with their common enemy, Iran. Egypt, and even Saudi Arabia, have witnessed unexpected coldness and turning away from the US administration in the past. Therefore, the progress in US relations with Iran is now providing a pretext for Arab countries to draw closer together, in the face of a "common threat" in the form of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations.

Despite repeated reassurances from their US allies, Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, are undoubtedly questioning whether the US will side with Iran for a larger strategy and then turn its back on them. Nothing is impossible; even the entire Middle East strategy can change. Therefore, the recent airstrikes in Yemen by the Arab coalition, while ostensibly targeting Houthi rebels, are actually acts of retaliation against the US, alongside a warning to Iran. Ignoring past differences, the Arab coalition is now aiming for a common military alliance, a unified voice to the US that we are united, we have the strength to lead ourselves and change the situation without needing US intervention. Therefore, the fighting in Yemen has not yet stopped. And if the Iranian nuclear negotiations continue favorably, the situation will likely worsen.

The US is at a crossroads - the crisis in Yemen continues.

Meanwhile, although the US claims to be accelerating the supply of weapons and increasing intelligence sharing and fuel for the anti-Houthi coalition, deeper intervention in the Yemen crisis is probably not in Washington's plans. A historic nuclear deal with Iran is what President Obama wants to push through in his upcoming term. The US also lacks the economic and defense resources to wage wars across the globe, and the Middle East is no longer a priority for US diplomacy at this time, compared to the Asia-Pacific, Ukraine, or counterterrorism. Therefore, if Arab countries still want to use Yemen as a platform to express their frustration with the US and Iran, it will likely not carry much weight.

As for Iran, it seems to have more than one option to strengthen its influence and position in the Middle East. But as long as Saudi Arabia continues to escalate tensions in Yemen, Iran is unlikely to back down either. Therefore, at this moment, with the power struggle between the parties still unresolved, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen is far from over. Ultimately, the people remain the most vulnerable. And no matter how many times the humanitarian red alert sounds, whether it is heard or not depends on the attitude and goodwill of all parties involved.

Phuong Hoa