Choose a major for the future

Many candidates are rushing to enroll in some majors that are considered trendy, easy to find jobs, and have high incomes at the present time. But will it be easy to find jobs in those majors in the next five or ten years?

Human resource forecast through banking industry training - (Source: synthesis of forecast results from the State Bank's human resource development plan for the banking industry in the period 2011-2020)

According to the forecast of the Institute of Development Strategy, the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, by 2020 the total demand for human resources will increase by more than 12 million people compared to 2011. The largest demand belongs to the industrial and construction sector with more than 8 million people, the service sector will increase by more than 3 million people. The agricultural, forestry and fishery sector alone will increase by the least with about 800,000 people. Notably, the human resources that the economy needs are mainly trained human resources.

Differences in the aquaculture industry

According to forecasts by experts and authorities, in the period 2011-2020, the proportion of human resources in the agricultural, forestry and fishery sector in the total social labor force tends to decrease rapidly. Compared to other sectors, by 2020 the proportion of labor in this sector will decrease by nearly 10% compared to 2011. However, the absolute number of workers has not decreased significantly, even increased slightly. It is forecasted that the number of trained workers in all types of agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors will reach about 27% in 2015 and 50% in 2020, equivalent to about 7 million and 13 million people, respectively.

However, in this industry group, aquaculture is different. While the rate of trained labor in the agriculture and forestry sector as well as this sector is not high, the demand for trained labor in the aquaculture sector in 2020 will reach 68%, mainly vocational training. In addition, the demand for human resources in the aquaculture sector also has the highest growth rate in the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector.

It is forecasted that by 2020, the total trained labor force of the fisheries sector alone will need 1.7 million people. The growth rate of labor demand in the fisheries sector is also much higher than that of other sectors in the same sector, especially in the period from now to 2014. While the annual growth rate of labor demand in the entire sector is always below 0.5%, the fisheries sector will increase from 2.21-3.8%. This leads to the fisheries sector's labor demand also increasing to more than 2.4 million people compared to 1.9 million in 2011.

Construction industry grows strongly

The total number of workers in the industrial and construction sector is forecast to be nearly 15 million in 2015 and increase to nearly 20 million in 2020. Of which, the trained workforce will be 11 and 16 million, respectively. Of the trained workforce, the majority will still be vocationally trained at 82-85%, while the proportion of intermediate vocational, college, university and postgraduate training will gradually decrease from 17.9% to 14.2%. According to forecasts, the proportion of workers trained at university level will account for about 6.2%, while intermediate training accounts for 5.9% of the workforce in the industrial and construction sector.

In the industrial and construction sector, the highest increase in labor demand is in the processing industry. According to statistics, the labor demand of this industry is about 7.5 million people. However, by 2015, this industry will need more than 9 million workers and by 2020, more than 11 million people. But if we consider the rate of increase in labor demand, we must mention the construction industry. This is the sector that is forecast to have the highest labor growth rate as the industrialization and urbanization process takes place more and more quickly. According to calculations, the construction industry's labor force by 2015 will be 5 million people, an increase of nearly 2 million people compared to 2010. By that time, the total number of trained laborers in the construction industry will be approximately 3 million people, by 2020 this number will be 5 million people. According to forecasts, from now until 2020, the demand for human resources in the construction industry will increase by 400,000-500,000 people each year.

On the contrary, industries in the mining and manufacturing industry, electricity, gas and water distribution group tend to grow slowly, even decreasing labor demand. In particular, the mining industry group will steadily decrease labor demand from now until 2020, decreasing by about 100,000 people each year.

Services requiring high-skilled workers

Along with the industrial and construction sector, the workforce in the service sector such as hotels, restaurants, engine repair, transportation, communications, finance, credit, science and technology activities, education and training... is forecast to increase rapidly in the period from now to 2020. According to calculations, the workforce in this sector by 2015 will be 15 million people, an increase of nearly 2 million compared to 2010, and by 2020 it will increase to nearly 17 million people, accounting for about 27% of the total workforce in the national economy.

It is noteworthy that the number of trained workers in the service sector is much higher than in other sectors. It is forecasted that by 2015, the number of trained workers in the service sector will be about 12 million, accounting for 80% of the workforce. And this number in 2020 will be nearly 15 million, equivalent to 87%.

In terms of training levels, the service sector also has different characteristics from other sectors in that it requires a fairly high level of training. While other sectors require a large number of

According to Tuoi Tre