Experts point out new points of tension between Russia and Ukraine

The bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia. Photo: Getty

“Each side has yet to unleash its arsenal of sanctions against the other, and may take various symbolic steps to demonstrate their determination to go all the way,” the expert said.

According to Mr. Chesnakov, in both Russia and Ukraine "there exist influential groups that consider increasing risks as an effective tool to maintain confrontation."

"Russia values ​​the existence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk Republics because they prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and the European Union. There is no other leverage. Faced with the risk of losing this asset, Moscow could start issuing Russian passports to residents of the Donbass region (southeastern Ukraine) or make other decisions to force Kiev to agree to a compromise or force the West to admit that Ukraine cannot integrate in the long term, as long as the risk of escalation of tensions remains in the east of the country," Chesnakov stressed.

The expert does not rule out the possibility that Ukraine could also increase the risks, by "provoking clashes in Donbass, in the Black Sea or the Sea of ​​Azov, seeking to increase Western involvement in the confrontation between Kiev and Moscow". However, according to Mr. Chesnakov, increased tensions do not mean war between the two countries.