Russian expert proposes 5 scenarios for US-Russia military clash

President Donald Trump ordered an attack on Syria on April 13 (local time). Photo: AP

Scenario 1

The US decided to attack the targets, claiming that it was to punish the suspected chemical weapons attack in Douma. However, the attacks were only meant to be a deterrent.

Like last year, two US destroyers fired nearly 60 Tomahawk missiles at Shayrat Airfield in Homs Province, Syria. The damage was minimal. Only a few old aircraft and some ammunition were burned, while the airport infrastructure was not damaged much.

According to Victor Murakhovsky, a collective strike on targets is possible. The targets here could be airports, including Damascus airport. If the action is symbolic, the targets could be facilities that, according to the Americans, produce chemical weapons.

In this scenario, as last year, Russia was warned a few hours before the attack. In this situation, from a military point of view, it is unlikely that Russia will take any action, including activating its missile defense system. However, on the diplomatic front, Russia will certainly react.

Second scenario

The US could send a strike group to the eastern Mediterranean, where Russia has blockaded the Syrian coast for exercises. While the US military expands its forces in neutral waters, the Russian military also shows its capabilities in the region, chemical weapons experts continue to search for samples in Douma, and diplomats huddle in conference rooms. The result of such a “soft” confrontation could be similar to last year’s incident when the US sent troops to the Korean Peninsula.

However, Syria and North Korea are very different. With North Korea, the US government knows that attacking this country will lead to nuclear conflict. In the case of Syria, the US can be more forceful, because Russia cannot be a "bullet shield" for Syria. Russia and Syria only have a general agreement on fighting terrorism on Syrian territory, but there is no agreement that Russia must fight against the country that attacks Syria.

The US attacks will be coordinated with France and Britain. AP photo

Third scenario

The US attacked positions at Khmeimim and Tartus that the Russian military had left, aiming to break down the missile defense system, destroy aircraft and destroy Syria's airports.

With this scenario, it can be seen that without Russian support, the Syrian army cannot hold out for long.

To carry out this scenario, the US must deploy a large force and equipment here. Currently, the US has not seen such a large force deployed in this area.

Fourth scenario

The US attacked the headquarters of the Syrian armed forces, the residence of the Syrian President and government agencies. At that time, the operating system in Syria was cut off, leading to chaos, the opposition, terrorists... took the opportunity to attack on all fronts.

Mr. Victor Murakhovsky said that the US is unlikely to attack such positions because there are Russian military advisory units there.

If this scenario happens, the damage to Russian military personnel will be huge and Russia will certainly respond appropriately.

The frightened, panicked faces of Syrian children. Photo: Reuters

The fifth scenario

The US used cruise missiles to simultaneously attack all of Syria's military infrastructure, destroying command posts, missile defense systems and airports.

To carry out this scenario, the US must mobilize a huge force. But right now, that is not seen.

With this scenario, the US could spark a war with Russia.

Russian military forces can attack US military bases not only in the Middle East but also in Europe. Russia possesses Kalibr submarine-launched cruise missiles, or X-101 aircraft-launched cruise missiles that can attack US military bases.

Russia’s offensive capabilities are a concern for the US and its allies in the region. They could send more aircraft and weapons to the Middle East to counter Russian aircraft. Such a conflict could escalate out of control.

In Victor Murakhovsky's opinion, a direct clash between the US and Russia in Syria is very unlikely.