Russian expert presents 5 scenarios for US-Russia military confrontation.
(Baonghean.vn) - Victor Murakhovsky, editor-in-chief of the Russian military magazine Arsenal Otechestva, has outlined five possible scenarios for the Syrian conflict ignited by the US.
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| President Donald Trump ordered an attack on Syria on April 13 (local time). Photo: AP |
Scenario 1
The US decided to attack these targets, citing the reason as punishment for the suspected chemical weapons attack in Douma. However, these attacks were only intended as a deterrent.
Similar to last year's incident, two US destroyers fired nearly 60 Tomahawk missiles at Shayrat airfield in Syria's Homs province. Following the attack, the damage was minimal. Only a few old aircraft and some ammunition were destroyed, while the airfield infrastructure suffered little damage.
According to Victor Murakhovsky, a mass attack on specific targets is possible. These targets could include airports, such as Damascus Airport. If the action is symbolic, the targets could be facilities that, according to the Americans, produce chemical weapons.
In this scenario, as in last year, Russia would have been warned just hours before the attack. From a military standpoint, Russia would likely not have taken any action, including activating its missile defense system. However, on the diplomatic front, Russia would certainly have reacted.
Second scenario
The U.S. could deploy a strike group to the eastern Mediterranean – where Russia has blockaded the Syrian coast for military exercises. While the U.S. military is projecting its presence in neutral waters, the Russian military is also demonstrating its capabilities in the region, chemical weapons experts continue to analyze samples in Douma, and diplomats are busily discussing matters in meeting rooms. The outcome of such a “soft” confrontation could resemble last year’s deployment of U.S. troops to the Korean Peninsula.
However, Syria and North Korea are vastly different. With North Korea, the US government knows that attacking the country would lead to nuclear conflict. In the case of Syria, the US can be more forceful because Russia cannot act as a "scapegoat" for Syria. Russia and Syria only have a general agreement on combating terrorism on Syrian territory; there is no agreement that Russia must fight against any country that attacks Syria.
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| The US attacks will be coordinated with France and Britain. (AP photo) |
Third scenario
The US attacked positions at Khmeimim and Tartus that Russian troops had withdrawn from, aiming to disrupt missile defense systems, destroy aircraft, and cripple Syrian airfields.
Given this scenario, it's clear that without Russian support, the Syrian army wouldn't be able to hold out for long.
To execute this scenario, the US would have to deploy a very large force and resources here. Currently, there is no sign of such a large US deployment in this area.
Fourth scenario
The US attacked the headquarters of the Syrian armed forces, the residence of the Syrian president, and government offices. This disrupted the Syrian command system, leading to chaos, which opposition groups and terrorists seized the opportunity to attack on all fronts.
Victor Murakhovsky argues that the US is unlikely to attack such positions because they house Russian military advisory units.
If this scenario were to occur, the losses for Russian military personnel would be enormous, and Russia would certainly retaliate appropriately.
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| The terrified, panicked faces of Syrian children. Photo: Reuters |
Fifth scenario
The US used cruise missiles to launch simultaneous attacks on all of Syria's military infrastructure, destroying command centers, missile defense systems, and airfields.
To execute this scenario, the US would have to mobilize an enormous force. However, that hasn't happened yet.
Under this scenario, the US could ignite a war with Russia.
Russian military forces could attack US military bases not only in the Middle East but also in Europe. Russia possesses Kalibr submarine-launched cruise missiles, or X-101 aircraft-launched cruise missiles, which could strike US military bases.
Russia's offensive capabilities are a concern for the U.S. and its allies in the region. They may deploy additional aircraft and weapons to the Middle East to counter Russian aircraft. Such a conflict could escalate beyond control.
According to Victor Murakhovsky, a direct confrontation between the US and Russia in Syria is highly unlikely.
