Western military expert: Ukraine deadlock fits Russia's 'wait and see' strategy
(Baonghean.vn) - The Independent newspaper quoted the opinions of military experts as saying that the conflict in Ukraine could remain deadlocked throughout 2024, as hopes of a major breakthrough by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the counterattack against Russia this year have faded.
According to The Independent, Western military experts have pointed out a number of reasons for the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, such as: Lack of manpower and experience in coordinating actions between units to achieve a breakthrough. In addition, the delay in supplying Western weapons has given Russia time to build excellent defense lines.
Dr Patrick Bury, University of Bath, said that winter is just weeks away. This will slow down the Ukrainian army's advance and the stalemate risks lasting through 2024. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have made no breakthroughs, only tactical gains, but not strategic ones.
Dr Bury, a former NATO analyst and British Army captain, said: “The developments of the past summer show that Ukraine can fight at the company level (about 100 soldiers), but when it comes to the battalion level, they do not have the experience to coordinate and fight all the battle positions.” He said that in the absence of large-scale training programs, new weapons and equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the situation next year will continue to be a stalemate with Kiev.
Meanwhile, expert Frank Ledwidge, a former military intelligence officer and now a PhD student at the University of Portsmouth, emphasized that to achieve results, the Ukrainian army would need to have a three-fold advantage over its opponent. However, this did not happen. According to Mr. Ledwidge, even if the US provided F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, it would not be able to turn the situation around.
“In the most basic military algorithms, you need a 3:1 attack-to-attack ratio, and Ukraine doesn’t have that kind of force. So, barring any significant change in that ratio, there’s really no reason to assume that future operations will see any improvement,” said former military intelligence officer Frank Ledwidge.
With the serious escalation of conflict in the Middle East, US attention and funding resources have now been diverted away from Ukraine, according to James Nixey, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House.
“While it is true that the US military is preparing resources to support two conflicts at the same time, the reality is that the pie will likely be smaller, with Ukraine’s funding tied to the aid package for Israel,” Nixey said.
Military analysts believe that the Ukrainian military stalemate is “pleasing” Russian President Vladimir Putin. Because “Putin’s strategy is to wait.” In addition, analysts say that the Russian leader is also betting on Donald Trump winning the next term as US President.
“President Putin has made a breakthrough here. He has essentially used the nuclear threat to slow down and cut off Western aid to Ukraine. That’s the effect it has had,” Dr. Bury said./.
