Covid-19: The crisis has no end in sight

The worst case scenario has not happened yet.

Part of the horror is that many poorer countries will not have the wherewithal to act in the face of a pandemic. And without the international community’s leadership and organization in the face of a global crisis, they will not be able to count on help from wealthier nations.

So far, with the exception of Iran, the countries that have been hit hardest are those with the world’s best economies, scientific and health systems; and Iran even has a relatively functioning health system. What lies ahead, perhaps, is the spread of the coronavirus across conflict-torn countries, overcrowded migrant camps and detention centers in places like Syria or Bangladesh, crowded cities like Mumbai, Rio de Janeiro or Monrovia where social distancing is impossible…

A father takes his son to a grocery store in Rawalpindi, during Pakistan's nationwide lockdown. Photo: AFP

At that time, it would not only be a disaster for them but also for the rest of the world, as raw material supplies are disrupted, fragile economies collapse, the rich and poor become more divided, and the virus cannot be ruled out as a "double threat" in the northern regions.

So far, the most vulnerable regions have reported relatively few cases of Covid-19, one in Yemen, scattered across Africa and the Middle East. But that may be partly due to underreporting or deliberate suppression. The numbers are rising, and as the world has seen, Covid-19 is likely to expand dramatically and rapidly.

A survey by the International Crisis Group (ICG) said it was difficult to predict the full impact, but “if the disease spreads widely in dense urban centers in fragile countries, the situation could be almost unmanageable. The already severe economic slowdown would disrupt trade flows and cause unemployment, creating losses on a scale that is hard to predict and grim to contemplate.”

The nationwide lockdown in India will be extended until at least May 3. Photo: AFP

“The Real War”

To get a sense of the dire situation in some developing countries, consider one of the most critical pieces of medical equipment used to treat Covid-19: ventilators. According to a recent estimate, the United States has about 160,000, while Sierra Leone has 13, South Sudan has four, and the Central African Republic has three. In Venezuela, where 90% of hospitals are currently understaffed, according to a report by the International Rescue Committee, there are only 84 intensive care beds for a population of 32 million.

“The lesson of this crisis is that the weakest links in the global health chain pose a threat to health everywhere. We cannot afford to lose these weak links, and must scale up efforts in war-torn countries and communities to improve their chances of survival.”

International Crisis Group (ICG) Chairman David Miliband

In the United States and Europe, governments and businesses have been able to pay many laid-off workers at least a portion of their wages, and others are eligible for unemployment benefits. But billions of people in Africa, Latin America and South Asia have no safety nets and no savings. The United Nations has warned that income losses in developing countries could exceed $220 billion.

Australia's unemployment rate is expected to rise from 5.1 to 10% in the second quarter due to Covid-19. Photo: AFP

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) have been quick to offer billions of dollars in emergency loans to poorer countries, though they warn that this will not be enough. Countries with relatively stable governments, such as Peru, have been quick to respond; while stricken countries such as Haiti and Venezuela have had little protection in place. Some “dictatorships” in the West, such as Egypt, have been seen as using the pandemic to tighten their grip on power. In the global South, the effects of the pandemic may be mitigated by the young populations of African countries such as Niger, Angola, Chad, Mali, Uganda and Somalia, where nearly half of the population is under the age of 15. In the US, that figure is just 19%.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Pope Francis have called for a halt to all global conflicts to focus on what Guterres called “the real war of our lifetimes.” Last week, Saudi Arabia announced a ceasefire in its war against Houthi rebels in Yemen, and armed groups have expressed a desire to halt fighting in Colombia, Cameroon and the Philippines. The Afghan government and the Taliban are both launching efforts to contain the spread of the virus. And Russia could feel the burden of supporting the Syrian military if Covid-19 takes a heavy toll on its economy.

But the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) is calling on its supporters to step up their efforts. Houthi fighters have not responded to Saudi Arabia’s ceasefire proposal, and fighting is escalating in parts of sub-Saharan Africa…

Measuring the body temperature of passengers to prevent the spread of Covid-19 at the international airport in Juba, South Sudan, January 31, 2020. Photo: AFP/TTXVN

Prepare for the next front

It is understandable that rich-world governments have focused primarily on tackling the Covid-19 crisis within their own borders. There has never been anything like the coronavirus that has turned so much of the world upside down in such a short time. But it is disappointing that a threat that is global and potentially devastating to the global economy has resulted in so little international cooperation and so little global leadership.

This is a crisis in which some countries, such as the United States, could emerge as leaders. But the Trump administration has done little to inspire the world from its domestic failures. The response in Europe has been confused and divided: the president of the European Union’s main scientific body resigned last week in protest at the bloc’s handling of the crisis. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has come under heavy criticism from those who believe its complicated relationship with China could undermine its mission.

The global crisis caused by Covid-19 is expected to get much worse than it is now. Photo illustration Getty

This situation is unlikely to change, especially as the pandemic continues to rage in the United States, Italy, Spain, and many countries in the Northern Hemisphere, and especially in a year when the United States holds a presidential election, the fight against Covid-19 is increasingly likely to become politicized. But Washington’s weakness should not prevent teams of experts in the developed world—including think tanks, media, universities, and NGOs—from focusing on a strategy for the next and perhaps fiercest front in the fight against Covid-19. Many have already begun to do so, recognizing that this may be the defining battle of our time, and that if the world needs a global response, it is now!