Covid-19: The final 'bet' in President Trump's race

“Shaking up” the race to the White House

More than any other head of state, US President Donald Trump's informationpositive for SARS-CoV-2immediately became “hot news” in almost all international newspapers. In US history, there has never been a President who fell ill so close to the election and was also a candidate. The pandemic is not related to politics or parties, but President Trump's Covid-19 infection has “shaken” the 2020 race in a very fundamental way with the question “how will he continue to run for election”.

President Donald Trump leaves the White House for Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on October 2, 2020. Photo: Getty

From a medical perspective, Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis is worrying. He is older (74), overweight, has high cholesterol, and is male – all factors that could put him at risk of severe illness if he contracts SARS-CoV-2. While President Trump’s doctors say he is “doing very well,” the US media has been told that his health is worrying. There are clearly too many things to worry about at this time.

Mr. Trump has now been quarantined from the White House and moved to Walter Reed military medical facility, outside Washington, DC. This means that upcoming campaign activities such as campaigning and live speeches will have to be postponed, including visits to key battleground states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada. According to the plan,live debate2nd between him andJoe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate will take place on October 15. In case his health does not allow, or Mr. Trump still tests positive for the virus, the live debate will most likely have to be postponed.

Many have speculated about postponing the election if Trump becomes ill. However, changing the election date would be up to US lawmakers, not the president. It would require a majority in both houses of Congress to vote in favor of any date change. However, that is unlikely to happen, as it would have to go through the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives.

Dr. Sean Conley, physician to President Donald Trump, and a team of doctors were dispatched to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. Photo: AP

Regarding the running of the country, if the President becomes too ill to perform his duties, the President must transfer power to the Vice President, according to the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution. When he recovers, the President can take over his position. Because of the disruptions that may occur when Mr. Trump is infected with Covid-19, both the people and investors seem to be confused. The US and Asian stock markets have both fallen on news of the health crisis in the White House.

Is there a silver lining?

Obviously, the news of Mr. Trump being infected with Covid-19 casts a shadow overelection campaignis taking place at its peak. The disadvantages of this incident are said to come from many sides. First is the election platform. It can be seen that in the past, Mr. Trump tried to shift the focus of his election campaign away from the Covid-19 pandemic, instead aiming at the theme of economic recovery and civil unrest, the aspect in which he believes he has an advantage. However, now, whether they like it or not, voters will certainly focus on Trump's health, the impact of the pandemic and many other issues surrounding Covid-19.

“Americans will care about the health care aspect of Covid-19, not the economic aspect.”

Matt Gorman - Republican Advisor

While Trump is widely seen as having an edge over Biden on the economy, recent polls show that many Americans trust the former vice president because of his handling of the pandemic and the health care system. Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis has only reinforced the view that he has failed to handle the pandemic, which has been his political Achilles’ heel.

President Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Fayetteville Regional Airport on September 19, 2020. Photo: AP

Next, the inability to go directlyvoter mobilization, especially in the battleground states, will lose the opportunity to stir up enthusiasm among supporters - which has been an advantage for Mr. Trump since the last election season. In other words, he will have to "give the stage" to Mr. Joe Biden. Not to mention, his fundraising will be affected when he cannot directly contact donors, while on the other side, candidate Joe Biden continuously breaks records in fundraising for the election. In September, Mr. Biden's campaign budget was 466 million USD, 141 million USD higher than Mr. Trump.

However, that does not mean that the SARS-CoV-2 virus will “block” Mr. Trump’s race because in “bad luck” there is sometimes “good luck”. First of all, the media is now only focusing on him and his health, which will invisibly “advertise” his campaign from different angles. Although Covid-19 has never been a topic that the current White House owner “wants to pursue”, at this time it helps him “distract” public opinion from issues that could potentially block his path, such as tax records or other personal scandals.

During his nearly 4 years as President, Mr. Trump has been known to make unexpected, unpredictable and hard-to-predict decisions. This time, Mr. Trump's infection with the virus at a sensitive time has also sparked speculation around the question, "what strategy is he hatching and when will he launch it?" Not to mention, in the event that he easily defeats Covid-19, it will be the clearest answer to his long-standing argument that Covid-19 is not dangerous. And even in the worst case, if he loses the election, the biggest fault probably lies with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not himself.

Mr. Trump's Covid-19 infection can be considered an important "variable" in this year's election. Photo: Getty

Furthermore, illness can increase voters’ sympathy for the President. According to a Washington Post/ABC News poll, US President Ronald Reagan’s approval rating increased by 11 percentage points after a failed assassination attempt early in his first term in 1981. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who contracted Covid-19 in April, also increased by 17 points compared to the previous month… Indeed, after learning of Mr. Trump’s illness, supporters from Portland in the West, Ohio in the Northeast, to around the Walter Reed medical facility all held rallies in support and sent their well-wishes to him.

Mr. Trump’s infection with Covid-19 can be considered an important “variable” of this year’s election, even an “October surprise” that often occurs in US election seasons. So, let’s wait and see if this new “bet” will be a “nightmare” or a breakthrough opportunity for Mr. Donald Trump?