'The battle' between Türkiye and Mediterranean countries

From Türkiye's "footprint" in Libya

In a recent online conference, five countries including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Greece, France and the Republic of Cyprus issued a joint statement expressing concern about the escalating violence in Libya, and criticized Türkiye's military intervention in Libya, which is making the country more unstable and threatening the stability of other neighboring countries in Africa.

The joint statement was issued by the five countries after Türkiye's recent moves such as providing military support to the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, failing to prevent the flow of foreign fighters from Syria to Libya... The five countries accused these moves of violating the UN arms embargo on Libya, according to which no country is allowed to provide weapons to any faction in Libya.

Türkiye's actions in the eastern Mediterranean have been criticised by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Greece, France and Cyprus. Photo: Armedia

Since the civil war in Libya led to the fall of the Qaddafi regime in 2011, the political landscape in this North African country has become increasingly internationalized, with foreign powers supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in the capital Tripoli and the eastern government of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Turkey has chosen to side with the Government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, stemming from the need to protect the relationship that Türkiye has built with Libya since the Qaddafi government - a relationship that has brought Türkiye both economic and political benefits.

Before the war broke out in Libya, 25% of Turkish workers in Arab countries worked in Libya. Under Gaddafi, the number of contracts that Turks won in Libya reached 18 billion USD. If Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar gains control of Libya, Türkiye could lose many large contracts in the fields of construction, infrastructure, and business services.

Besides, having many Muslim figures in the Libyan National Unity Government is an advantage for Mr. Erdogan to maintain influence in the country with the largest oil and gas resources in Africa.

An oil refinery in the town of al-Buraqah, Libya. Photo: AFP/TTXVN

In 2018, Libya accounted for 1.1% of the world’s oil production. By 2019, Libya had increased its crude oil production to a seven-year high of 1.15 million barrels per day, accounting for 2.8% of the world’s total. With a small population, most of Libya’s oil and gas production is exported, making it a “perfect complement” to Türkiye’s economy, which is the world’s 19th largest but energy-poor economy.

Many have compared Türkiye’s support for Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj’s Government of National Accord (GNA) to Russia’s support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It was thanks to the support of Turkish armor and drones that the GNA was able to hold Tripoli and withstand massive attacks by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s eastern government last year.

But Türkiye's strategy in Libya has caught the attention of regional countries because Libya is just a springboard for Türkiye to expand its influence to a wider area, including the particularly important eastern Mediterranean Sea - an "energy chessboard" that borders the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

Military support for the Government of National Accord in Libya is of strategic significance to Türkiye. Photo: Getty

...to the energy war at sea

In a joint statement by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Greece, France and Cyprus, Türkiye was not only criticized for violating the UN arms embargo on Libya, but also for actions that escalate tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, such as conducting controversial drilling operations in Cypriot waters or flying aircraft through Greek airspace.

However, Türkiye has cited the Security and Economic Agreement signed between Turkish President Erdogan and Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj to defend its actions. According to this agreement, the Government of National Accord in Libya will receive military equipment and weapons from Turkey. In return, Türkiye will be able to join Libya in protecting its interests in the coastal waters of Libya in the eastern Mediterranean.

Türkiye rejected the accusations of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Greece, France and the Republic of Cyprus, considering this an act that harms Libya's democracy, because Libya has the right to sign bilateral agreements with rights and obligations in accordance with international law.

Türkiye has accused Greece and Cyprus of avoiding good-faith dialogue with Türkiye, accused the United Arab Emirates of joining an “evil alliance” because of its long-standing hostility to Türkiye, and accused France of seeking to destabilize it to consolidate its role as a patron in the Muslim world.

Türkiye calls the five countries of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Greece, France and the Republic of Cyprus an “evil alliance”. Photo: AP.

According to analysts, the new tense developments in the relationship between Türkiye and five countries in the region continue to reveal the strategic calculations of the parties in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The huge gas reserves in this area are an abundant source of supply for the exploitation plants of Egypt and Israel. Greece and the Republic of Cyprus have recently had many agreements with Egypt and Israel related to the exploitation of gas in this area.

In addition, in January 2020, Greece, Cyprus and Israel signed an agreement to build a 1,900km East-Med undersea pipeline to transport gas from eastern Mediterranean gas fields through Greece, Cyprus, Italy and to European countries.

This project is expected to be completed in 2025, transporting 10 billion m³gas each year and is considered a “salvation” for Europe to reduce its dependence on gas from Russia. That is the reason why the battle on the “energy chessboard” in the Mediterranean region has received the attention of European countries, led by France.

The maritime area that Libya and Türkiye jointly protect under an agreement signed in November 2019. Photo: Forbes

Meanwhile, with the security and economic agreement signed with the Libyan government, Türkiye wants to establish the right to block any energy-related projects in the eastern Mediterranean without Türkiye's consent - a not insignificant power for Turkey to increase its economic and political influence in the region.

After Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Greece, France and the Republic of Cyprus issued a joint statement, Türkiye called on countries to resolve the issue through dialogue and in accordance with international law and practice. Whether or not dialogue has a chance to take place, these developments once again show that, nearly 10 years after the Arab Spring, Libya continues to be swayed by the calculations of external forces, and the real “spring” that Libya has been waiting for is still far away.