Former US intelligence officer warns Russia will change Ukraine's borders in 5 more areas

Ria Novosti quoted former US intelligence officer Scott Ritter's analysis on Consortium News, assessing that Russia has gone on the offensive. According to Ritter, initial information from the battlefield shows that the Russian army is achieving much greater success than the first few weeks of Ukraine's counter-offensive, which has lasted for 5 months.

According to former US intelligence officer, US News and World Reportjust released the ranking of the world's most powerful armies and Russia has surpassed the United States to take the number 1 spot.

There is a big difference between “Ukraine taking back lost territory” and “Russia attacking and possibly gaining some tactical advantage,” says Scott Ritter.

According to Scott Ritter, trying to minimize these Russian gains does not change the fact that they are taking place after a failed counteroffensive, which was supported by the economic and military power of the collective West, including the US, NATO and the European Union.

“The transition from a major counteroffensive designed to retake most, if not all, of the territory Russia has annexed, to a defensive posture in which Russia expects to seize even more territory, cannot be considered tactical in nature. It is a strategic change of fortune, symbolic of the ultimate trajectory of both sides in the conflict,” said former US intelligence officer Scott Ritter.

At present, the Russian goal is not to encircle Avdeevka. Instead, Russia is placing the Ukrainian command in a dilemma. Abandoning Avdeevka could lead to a collapse of morale among the Ukrainian defenders. And holding out could result in heavy casualties, given the difficulties involved in reinforcing the garrison.

According to Scott Ritter, trying to hold Avdeevka could have collapsed Ukraine’s entire defense effort, as its reserves were depleted. Ukraine would have been forced to transfer troops from elsewhere to the front line. This would have given Russian troops more opportunities to attack.

At Bakhmut, Russia may have killed or captured more than 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers – a number that matches the number of troops that NATO had assembled and trained to carry out the counterattack.

According to Scott Ritter, the battle at Kupyansk was a demonstration of Russian military strategy. It was an example of how Russia could exploit the shortage of manpower on the Ukrainian front line by attacking areas of the battlefield where Ukrainian forces were stretched thin.

In Kupyansk, Russia is trying to create a similar "meat grinder" to Bakhmut. That is, forcing Ukraine to retreat or redeploy its troops, leaving another location on the front vulnerable to Russian offensive operations.

And so this cycle repeats until the Ukrainian Armed Forces general collapse along the front line.

But what is happening is not the most important aspect, according to Scott Ritter. Unlike the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporozhye, the battles in Bakhmut and Avdeevka were fought on territory claimed by Russia. And thus, fulfilling President Vladimir Putin's stated goal: to liberate all of Russia. Kupyansk is a city in the Kharkiv region of eastern Ukraine.

Although Russia has maintained a military presence in Kharkiv province, after its withdrawal in the fall of 2022, this presence is designed to protect the northern territory of the Lugansk Republic, rather than as a springboard for Russian offensive operations.

"This shows a signal from Moscow that, to ensure the safety and security of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, Russia will begin military operations, which could cause Ukraine to lose five more provinces to Russian control," said former US intelligence officer Scott Ritter.

Scott Ritter believes that this is an important "new inflection point" in the "graph" of the conflict, with strategic significance./.