Has World War III been ignited?

The fragile world order is now facing an abyss as the international community struggles to find ways to prevent war, according to the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House).

The conflict in eastern Ukraine is getting worse, pushing Russia-West relations into a dead end.

In the past hundred years, humanity has experienced two world wars. And now, a popular question that is often mentioned in the media is how to prevent World War III? The scientist Albert Einstein once famously said: "I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but I do know that World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

Violence and bloody conflicts are taking place in many places around the world. The war machine seems to be starting up and ready to operate. From the Middle East, South Asia to Ukraine, the world is caught in a spiral of instability with no "light at the end of the tunnel" in sight. Russia is on the brink of conflict in Ukraine. The US is forced to increase its military involvement in Iraq to stop Islamic militants. The Afghan government faces the risk of collapse when NATO withdraws its troops. Violence in the Gaza Strip as Israel launches a military campaign to destroy the Hamas Islamist movement. Tensions on the Korean peninsula and the Kashmir region have yet to be defused. Meanwhile, the sovereignty dispute in the East Sea can erupt into conflict at any time.

According to statistics from the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme, there have been 254 armed conflicts since 1946, of which 114 turned into large-scale wars. Since the end of the Cold War, the number of armed conflicts has decreased significantly. In 2013, there were only 33 conflicts, a 50% decrease compared to 1989.

The rise of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq shows that peace remains elusive for the world.

However, developments in some hot spots around the world are seriously threatening the relative balance of the world order. In a recent study, Chatham House predicted that the world by 2030 will be very fragile. Governments and international organizations will struggle to cope with the trend of independence and secession. The risk of war between countries will increase significantly, stemming from conflicts and competition for influence and interests.

According to Dr. Robin Niblett, Director of Chatham House, although the West has tightened sanctions and embargoes against Russia, it is difficult for the West to immediately turn around the situation of the Ukraine crisis. Therefore, Mr. Niblett believes that Europe needs to be consistent with its current policy in Ukraine, in which applying new sanctions against Russia is the right approach to rebalance the EU's influence and interests.

In the past, there were criticisms that the EU reacted too slowly to Russia’s involvement in Ukraine. However, recently, the EU decided to implement sanctions that could completely destroy the relationship between Russia and Europe after the Cold War.

The EU is not just talking nonsense. This time, the EU has quickly gained consensus among all 28 member states, which clearly demonstrates the strength of a regional organization with 500 million people and the world's largest economy, according to Mr. Niblett. When the EU is determined to get involved, its decisions can have a strong impact on the Russian economy.

However, Russia is a neighbor of EU member states, so the conversation now turns to geoeconomics. Russian gas supplies account for 35% of the EU’s total imports. Russia is also Europe’s third-largest trading partner, after the US and China. A Europe in conflict with its eastern neighbor will not only have negative economic consequences, but also cause political instability. Internal disputes and conflicts between factions will become more intense, making it difficult for Europe to focus on other security issues, from instability in the Middle East to the rise of China.

After the mutual praise, the West will have to answer an important question: what next? The reality is that the decision to impose new sanctions is not necessarily successful immediately. Oil exports still bring in a stable source of income. Currently, Russia's government debt accounts for only 15% of GDP. Foreign exchange reserves, although falling, remain high at $470 billion. In his calculations, Mr. Putin may think that the threat to power stems from the failure in Ukraine, not the economic recession. However, in the long term, the embargo will cause the Russian economy to suffer. In fact, Russia's economic growth rate has begun to decline since the beginning of 2014.

According to:Infonet