Is the Covid-19 pandemic coming to an end?

EpidemicMore than two years of lockdown have left many people exhausted by the harsh restrictions and unpredictability of daily life. Millions of Covid-19 patients have died, tens of millions have lost their livelihoods and economies have been severely affected.

So everyone is hoping that the pandemic is coming to an end. In some countries, the easing or complete removal of restrictions has fueled those hopes.

The Covid-19 pandemic that has lasted for more than two years has left many people exhausted. Photo: AP

In a recent article on Al Jazeera, Dr. Amir Khan from the School of Medicine at Leeds University and the University of Bradford (UK) pointed out that the above mentality is further promoted by the Omicron variant - which has been shown to cause less severe illness and lower hospitalization rates than infection with the Delta variant.

However, the emergence of Omicron, with its ability to spread rapidly and evade some immune barriers, is still a reminder of the complexity of Covid-19. World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also issued a very clear warning when he said "it is dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant and that we are in the final game".

While Omicron may be milder than Delta, the number of cases is still rising, especially in Europe, suggesting that any hope that Covid-19 could soon become endemic would be misguided.

In the most scientific terms, a disease is considered endemic when the number of cases stabilizes or levels off, not when it becomes less deadly. By this definition, Covid-19 is not yet endemic, as cases are still rising. On the other hand, endemic diseases like malaria can still kill 600,000 people a year, or dengue fever, which kills 25,000 people a year.

So when people talk about “living with” Covid-19, the question is: What is an acceptable death toll for the world to continue as normal? Of course, it is important to note that this approach puts vulnerable and elderly people – who are at high risk of dying if infected with SARS-CoV-2 – at a huge disadvantage.

Some might argue that influenza also kills 650,000 people a year worldwide, so surely we can live with Covid-19. But influenza is not endemic, instead we usually only see outbreaks in winter.

Covid-19 and influenza are two different diseases. Covid-19 is a multi-system inflammatory virus that is not only deadly but can lead to long-term health problems for people of all ages. In contrast, influenza typically only affects the respiratory system. This means that millions of people around the world could be living with prolonged Covid-19, with livelihoods affected and economies severely impacted. Not to mention, Covid-19 has so far killed significantly more people than influenza.

Therefore, humans must still apply measures to prevent the spread of the virus until this goal is achieved in the true sense.

In addition, the key is to get a Covid-19 vaccine into as many people as possible, giving the virus less time to replicate and less opportunity to mutate. In addition, antiviral treatments such as molnupiravir and paxlovid, which have been shown to reduce the risk of hospitalization for people in high-risk groups, are needed. These drugs block the replication of the virus, which means that it shortens the time a person is sick, meaning that the virus has less time to mutate into new forms.

It's something that humanity as a whole would benefit from, according to Dr. Khan.