Denuclearization negotiations: When the time is not yet 'ripe'

When North Korea "runs out" of patience

On December 7, North Korea's UN Ambassador Kim Song confirmed that denuclearization has been withdrawn from negotiations with the US, saying that prolonged talks with Washington are unnecessary. In a statement, Ambassador Kim Song said that the "continuous and substantial dialogue" sought by the US is just a way for Washington to save time to benefit its domestic agenda. In addition, the North Korean ambassador also objected to the statement of European members of the UN Security Council on Pyongyang's recent missile launches.

The statement came after Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Poland and the UK condemned North Korea's continued ballistic missile testing and called for strict enforcement of sanctions against Pyongyang. According to statistics, North Korea has conducted 13 ballistic missile launches since May - a move seen as a warning to the US, if Washington does not make new proposals to resume denuclearization talks before the end of 2019.

Pyongyang has called on Washington to abandon its “hostile policy” and stop making one-sided demands, but the US has shown no signs of responding. As the deadline approaches, these tough messages from North Korea are becoming more frequent and may be aimed at gaining last-minute concessions, said Jenny Town of 38 North, a website that monitors activities in North Korea.

And to demonstrate its determination, on December 8, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that Pyongyang had conducted a "very important" test at the Sohae launch site. According to the news, the North Korean Academy of Defense Science conducted the test a day earlier and the results of the successful test were presented to the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea.

Satellite images show new developments at North Korea's Sohae test site. Photo: 38 North

The statement stressed that this result plays an important role in changing the strategic position of North Korea in the near future. Meanwhile, satellite imaging service Planet Labs has captured images of North Korea preparing to restart missile engine testing in Dongchang, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province. Satellite images show a large cargo container that has never appeared before at the missile test site. This test site is the place that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pledged to permanently close, one of the denuclearization agreements that the leaders of the two Koreas reached at the third inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang last September.

The last time US and North Korean officials met was in early October in Stockholm, Sweden. The meeting ended with mutual blame. Things have been quiet since then, making North Korea really impatient. The US, on the other hand, seems to know that the remaining hurdles for a denuclearization deal are too great, so it still made a formal statement.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump during a meeting at the inter-Korean border in June. Photo: AP

Not the right time

In response to North Korea's provocative rhetoric, US President Donald Trump said he would continue to monitor the situation in North Korea, stating that the two sides' relations remained good despite some confrontation. He also expressed confidence that North Korea would not interfere in the upcoming US election, and stressed that he would be surprised if Pyongyang took hostile action. These gestures show that US President Donald Trump is "not in a hurry".

After two summits with the North Korean leader, although he could not resolve the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula, Mr. Trump was confident enough to establish a dialogue channel to end the "brink of war" situation in 2017 with Pyongyang's consecutive nuclear and ballistic missile tests. That was certainly a foreign policy success for the White House owner in the eyes of American voters. And this reality still exists, despite North Korea's recent continuous testing of new weapons, but these are only seen as shows of strength to gain an advantage at the negotiating table by Pyongyang, rather than a real threat to the security of the US and its allies.

North Korea tested a super-large multiple rocket launcher in South Hamgyong Province on November 28. Photo: KCNA

The US President’s attitude after North Korea’s new weapons tests further reinforces the view that a quick resolution to the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula is not on Trump’s priority agenda. What he needs most is what he has achieved: a temporary “freezing” of the Korean Peninsula in a way that does not pose a risk of erupting into a hot spot that directly threatens US interests. Therefore, let time find a solution. In addition, it seems that the North Korean nuclear issue does not have much influence on voters’ votes, in the context of the US presidential election less than a year away.

Commenting on a solution to the impasse in the near future, Professor Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, Pusan ​​National University in South Korea, said that both sides have not been able to make a difference at this time, because their positions have hardly changed. For the US, it is complete, verifiable and irreversible nuclear disarmament. As for North Korea, they want to lift sanctions before discussing what to do. The December 2019 deadline that North Korea set for the US or else it will end the denuclearization negotiations is about to expire, but so far everything is still at a standstill. Perhaps, the US and North Korea need more time and effort to complete this complicated issue.