Catalans head to historic elections

Today, more than 80% of Catalonia's 5.5 million voters will go to the polls in the most important election in the region's history.

The big day

December 21, 2017 will probably go down in history as one of the most important days in the region’s recent history. It was the day of early regional elections in Catalonia, 81 days after the illegal October 1 secession referendum and more than a month after Catalonia was stripped of its autonomy.

According to Spanish electoral law, parties ended their campaign activities on the afternoon of December 19, to give voters a "quiet" day before going to the polls.

Catalans protest for independence. (Photo: Reuters)

But the absence of election activity has not made the atmosphere in Catalonia, and particularly in the capital Barcelona, ​​any less heated. The tension is palpable, from the streets to the newspapers.

Compared to late October, when Catalonia was placed under direct control of the Spanish central government, the political atmosphere in the region is no calmer, and even worse.

This was evident during the election campaign, when parties supporting and opposing Catalan independence had heated debates, attacking and insulting each other out of control.

The press on both sides, the central and local, also joined in, heightening tensions. While local newspapers, such as El Periodico and TV3, were filled with information that favored the independence of Catalonia, on Sunday, December 17, the newspaper “The World” (El Mundo) called on the Spanish government to re-arrest Carme Forcadell, the former President of the Catalan Parliament, because she continued to call for secession.

The final colour is the strangeness. Never before has an election witnessed such unusual campaigning methods as in Catalonia. The campaigns of the most important parties are led by a jailed leader, Oriol Junqueras of the left-wing Republican Party - ERC, and the “All for Catalonia” party of the former Catalan government president, Carles Puigdemont, who is in exile in Belgium.

All these factors make Catalonia truly feel like it is living in the calm before the storm.

Scenarios

Based on surveys and analysis, there are currently three main scenarios for today's elections in Catalonia.

The first scenario is that the pro-independence Catalan faction (led by the ERC) wins, but will have to change its stance, that is, maintain the independence trend but must soften and build a long-term dialogue roadmap with the Spanish central government.

Factors that could create this scenario are the expected high voter turnout, between 82 and 85 percent, and the recent crisis not causing the separatists to lose too many supporters.

But even if this faction wins, it cannot declare Catalonia independent because, first, of pressure from the Spanish government, and second, of the clear alienation from the European Union. However, if this faction wins, it will clearly be a defeat for the Spanish government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, and although the scenario of Catalonia independence is very small, it will force the Spanish government to change its approach.

The second scenario, which is that the unified faction (led by the Citizens Party – Ciudadanos), which supports Catalonia remaining part of Spain, prevails thanks to what analysts call a “silent majority”.

The millions of people who demonstrated in support of a united Spain in October showed that there is a significant number of people who do not want Catalonia to secede, although it is not necessarily a majority. Therefore, if this force is mobilized in large numbers, the unificationists could win nearly half of the seats in the Catalan Parliament, not enough to overtake the separatists but enough to create a large enough counterweight before seeking a coalition.

Banner: "Catalonia is not Spain". (Photo: Reuters)

The final scenario is that the separatists win but are divided between Carles Puigdemont's All for Catalonia party and Oriol Junqueras' left-wing Republican Party - ERC.

In this case, the victorious separatists did not have enough strength to make any big demands. This split has actually happened because in today's election, the ERC party refused to join the All for Catalonia coalition.

At that time, the most realistic goal that the separatists set after the election was to regain Catalonia's autonomy, not independence.

However, all of these scenarios are very uncertain because analysis of the composition and psychology of Catalan voters shows that this election will be an extremely close contest, with very small margins and a relatively high risk of a “hung parliament”, meaning neither side has enough majority to govern on its own.

Back to normal

Today's election in Catalonia is, in some ways, a legitimate referendum by the people of Catalonia on whether they really want independence from Spain.

So, whatever the outcome, the Catalan secession crisis will, in terms of legitimacy, find a certain solution. However, this does not mean that the crisis will end immediately.

First, even if the separatists win, Catalonia's independence is impossible. The Spanish government has been using all its power to prevent it, and the international community does not support a separatist option.

But, whether we like it or not, we all have to admit that there is a large number of Catalans who truly want independence and their wishes need to be heard.

They need to be able to dialogue to change the current inadequacies in the relationship between the local and central governments. What is important, therefore, is the next steps after the elections. Catalonia needs to quickly regain its autonomy and political stability in order to develop, for the benefit of the region and of Spain as a whole.

That will be the first goal that both sides need to aim for in order to bring things back to normal, before hoping to have policies to completely resolve the disagreements that are the source of current tensions between the Catalonia region and the Spanish central government.

According to VOV