Behind the 'last-minute' impeachment plan

When the Democrats show their cards

The Democratic Party's efforts to put pressure on outgoing President Donald Trump are growing stronger as Mr. Trump has just over a week left in office.

In the meeting on January 11, the Democratic Party in the US House of Representatives promoted the plan to impeach Mr. Trump, citing the core reason as the accusations that the current president incited the riot by a group of extremists who stormed the US Capitol building on January 6.

The move comes after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi issued an ultimatum demanding that Vice President Mike Pence and Trump's cabinet invoke the 25th Amendment to the Constitution.to impeach the President.

That means that absent any Democratic or Republican objections, the impeachment resolution will be voted on in the House on January 12. Once the resolution is passed, Mr. Pence will have 24 hours to act.

However, according to sources, Mr. Pence has rejected the idea of ​​using the 25th Amendment and said that this is not a feasible option. In case Mr. Pence is determined to not act to remove Mr. Trump from office, the House of Representatives will launch impeachment proceedings.

The US House of Representatives will vote on impeaching President Donald Trump for the second time on January 12. Photo: NBC News

Whatever the scenario, it is clear that the Democrats’ moves are aimed at not allowing the 45th President to “land” easily. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi bluntly told reporters that Congress needed to “act urgently” because “any day” left in Trump’s term “could be a horror show for America.”

It should be emphasized that the promotionimpeachment processThe impeachment proceedings, which are taking place just days before Trump leaves office, cannot be completed while Trump is still in office. The House of Representatives can expedite the impeachment proceedings, but the Senate is currently in recess and will not receive the notice and articles of impeachment until it returns to session on January 19.

Then, according to impeachment rules, the Senate will not begin its deliberations until 1 p.m. the following day, January 20. At that time, Mr. Trump will no longer be President. Many people question whether it is constitutionally possible to impeach a President after he has left office. Not to mention that impeachment will affect President-elect Joe Biden's agenda.

If Trump had to be tried, the Senate would not be able to handle other important tasks, such as approving personnel in Biden's cabinet or urgent bills such as increasing Covid-19 support for people.

A protest before President Donald Trump was impeached in December 2019. Photo: AP

Deep calculations

If the procedure goes according to plan,Donald Trump will go down in American historyis the first President to face two impeachments in one term. However, impeachment is probably not just a personal story because whether Mr. Trump is actually found guilty or not is likely to only happen when he is already a "former President".

The price he would pay if he were found guilty would be a ban on running for office in the future, the loss of all security privileges and the salary of a former president. However, these things do not seem to matter much to a billionaire like Mr. Trump, and they do not seem to be the ultimate goal that the Democrats want to pursue when impeaching him. According to observers, there are many important reasons for the second impeachment attempt against President Trump.

First, impeaching President Trump would once again allow lawmakers to send a message about the need for accountability from the president for actions that have the potential to have lasting consequences. Given Trump’s apparent role in inciting his supporters to riot on Capitol Hill, many House lawmakers see this as a clear case for impeachment.

Looking back at the Trump impeachment case a year ago, there is a big difference. Some House members said that in 2019, they saw a president who threatened to erode Democratic norms. Now, they see that threat made real with the accusation that Trump “incited an insurrection,” which is a serious violation of the president’s oath to “preserve and protect the Constitution.”

Not to mention Democrats could also point to Trump's recent phone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, encouraging him to "find" more than 11,000 votes to overturn.election results

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi issued an ultimatum to Vice President Mike Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment to the Constitution to remove the President or impeach Mr. Trump. Photo: AP

Second, the Democrats’ impeachment effort is also aimed at narrowing Trump’s voter support and paving the way for a new Biden administration, even though Trump received more than 74 million votes in the last election, a record number for a Republican candidate.

However, after the riots at Capitol Hill on January 6, the White House boss's reputation and support have significantly declined. Six polls conducted after the riots showed that about half of Americans believe Trump should be impeached, including those who voted for him on November 3.

And now with the impeachment process, whether or not he is convicted, the allegations against Mr. Trump will certainly undermine voters’ confidence in this leader even though he is no longer in office. In theory, voter support for a former president does not mean much, but the current situation is completely different. The more people “turn away” from Trump, the less valuable his complaints about election fraud will be. Of course, such a situation will give the new Biden administration an advantage in healing and uniting America as well as calming down the whispers of “election fraud”.

Therefore, although it is late and may not bring the desired results, the Democrats will not miss the opportunity to impeach Mr. Trump until the last minute. For their part, after a challenging term, whether President Trump is removed from office early or faces impeachment, one thing is certain, he will have to face an unpleasant prospect after leaving office and his chances of running for the 2024 election will also gradually narrow.