Price management will determine the CPI level in 2013.

To achieve the target of keeping the annual CPI below 7%, price management in the final months of the year will be crucial.

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The National Financial Supervisory Commission has just released a report assessing the economic situation in 2013 and forecasting for 2014-2015.

Accordingly, the Committee concluded that the macroeconomic environment continues to remain stable, creating a foundation for stable development in the coming years. Inflation continues to be controlled at a low level compared to previous years. However, achieving the 5.5% growth target for 2013 is a major challenge, and growth is likely to reach only 5.3%.

Price management will determine the CPI level.

A detailed analysis by the National Financial Supervisory Commission shows that the CPI for the first eight months increased by 3.53% compared to the beginning of the year. Calculations separating seasonal factors reveal that adjustments to the prices of basic goods and services, exchange rates, and public services (healthcare, education) are the main factors driving inflation this year. Specifically, in August, year-on-year inflation was quite high compared to previous months (7.5%), but inflation excluding seasonal factors (gasoline, electricity, public services) was only 3.43%.

Thus, based on the assessment in the June 2013 report, the National Steering Committee for Anti-Corruption

They argue that without changes in the prices of basic commodities, there is a high probability...

The inflation rate for the whole year of 2013 is expected to be around 5% (higher than the corresponding rate of 4.3% in 2012). Therefore, to achieve the target of keeping the CPI for the whole year below 7%, price management in the remaining months of the year will be crucial.

Adjusting the prices of basic goods and public services requires unified coordination, appropriate steps, and a clear roadmap.

In 2013, the surplus was $1.5-2 billion.

Regarding the overall balance of payments, the National Steering Committee for Economic and Financial Affairs stated that it continues to be in surplus and forecasts a surplus of US$1.5-2 billion in 2013. However, the balance of payments surplus decreased significantly compared to 2012, with a surplus of US$1.5 billion in the first five months of the year, down 79% year-on-year; the capital balance surplus was US$2.56 billion, down 37% year-on-year in 2012. Exports increased considerably, but mainly due to the contribution of the FDI sector.

Exports in the first eight months increased by 14.7%, but the domestic sector only grew by 3.1%. Similarly, imports increased by 14.9%, while the domestic sector only grew by 4%. Alongside this, the financial and monetary markets improved, contributing to greater macroeconomic stability and enhancing the economy's ability to supply capital.

Achieving the 5.5% growth target in 2013 will be difficult.

The National Steering Committee for Economic and Production Management also noted that while economic growth and production have improved in recent months, many challenges remain. This is evidenced by the gradual increase in industrial production over the months (the increase in the industrial production index for March, April, May, June, July, and the first eight months of 2013 was 4.9%, 5%, 5.2%, and 5.3%, respectively) and the gradual increase in the number of registered businesses, although the registered capital decreased (the number of newly registered businesses increased by 4.8% in 5 months, 7.6% in 6 months, and 8.4% in 7 months compared to the same period. The amount of newly registered capital decreased by 14.1% in 4 months, 16.3% in 5 months, 19.9% ​​in 6 months, and 17.5% in 7 months).

However, industrial production (IIP) remained lower than the same period last year, while agricultural, forestry, and fisheries production reached its lowest level in 10 years (only 2.4% in the first six months of 2013). Specifically, the IIP for the first eight months of the year reached 5.3%, a lower increase compared to the same period last year (6.5%), and the PMI has been below 50 (the threshold for production expansion) for three consecutive months. The agricultural sector also experienced a significant decline, from 3.9% in 2011 to 2.28% in 2012 and 1.89% in the first six months of 2013; the fisheries sector saw a continuous decline from 4.33% in 2011 to 2.34% in the second quarter of 2013.

At the same time, businesses still face many difficulties, especially domestic businesses compared to FDI businesses. In the first eight months of the year, domestic businesses' exports increased by only 3.1% while FDI businesses' increased by 26%; imports increased by 4% compared to 24.1% for FDI businesses.

Given the above situation, the National Steering Committee for Economic Development assessed that achieving the 5.5% growth target in 2013 is a major challenge, and it is highly likely that the GDP growth for the whole year of 2013 will only be at 5.3%.

According to VOV - HV