7th US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue: No breakthrough

(Baonghean) - The 7th US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue took place from June 23-24 in Washington, attracting the attention of the international community. Regarding this issue, Nghe An Newspaper reporters had an interview with Associate Professor, PhD, Major General Le Van Cuong - Former Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies, Ministry of Public Security.

Reporter:Major General, can you tell us about the context of the China-US relationship before entering into the dialogue?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Before talking about the context, we must clarify the nature of the relationship between China and the United States. In essence, the China-US relationship is the relationship between a rapidly rising power with a comprehensive national strength on a global scale and a superpower that plays a particularly important role in the world's economic, political and security development process. In many cases, the US still plays a dominant role in the world situation. Thus, at a deep level, China and the US have antagonistic conflicts in strategic goals, in other words, conflicts in interests and structures at a deep level. The US wants to maintain the current world order under its control, while China is an emerging power, they need a larger political and economic space to develop. Thus, one side demands to maintain the status quo with the order led by them, while the other side does not accept the status quo order, they want to change it.

The 7th annual US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) in Washington, DC (USA). Photo: Internet

Entering the recent dialogue, the political and security situation between the two countries was extremely tense. One was the heated issue in the East Sea due to China's illegal reclamation and construction of rocky islands in Truong Sa. The US and world public opinion believe that China is building military bases in Truong Sa, fundamentally changing the natural status quo in the East Sea and that China's actions seriously violate international law, the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea (DOC). These actions also go against what Chinese leaders, from Mr. Hu Jintao to Mr. Xi Jinping, have repeatedly promised and committed to the US, ASEAN countries and the international community, seriously threatening maritime safety and security in the East Sea - the world's busiest international shipping route. More importantly, such actions directly threaten the security and interests of the United States, as well as its friends and allies in the region.

The second hot issue is that the Obama administration has accused the Chinese government of being behind the intrusion of Chinese hackers to steal personal information of 14 million US federal employees, confidential joint venture information and proprietary technology of US companies. This issue has actually reached its peak since 2012. Thus, they entered the dialogue in the context of two hot spots emerging, reflecting antagonistic contradictions.

Reporter:So how does the Major General evaluate the results of this China-US dialogue?

Major General Le Van Cuong:US and Chinese officials have said the talks were constructive and positive. But in reality, many important issues remain unresolved.

The Chinese side still provided information to explain, asking the US to sympathize and declare that the renovation is for civilian purposes, such as storm shelters, humanitarian relief, oceanographic research facilities, the environment, etc. China also intended to commit that these actions would not affect the security and safety of navigation in the East Sea. The US listened but they did not believe it, this issue was ultimately put aside for further research, negotiation, and finding a reasonable solution to ensure the interests of both sides. China asked the US not to interfere in the East Sea dispute and they were very wise to say that the China-US relationship is at a high level, the East Sea issue is a small issue, should not affect the relationship between the two countries.

As for US officials, they believe that this is a serious issue. If not resolved properly, it can easily cause tension and even lead to conflict. But the most thorny issue is that China's actions violate international law and have not been resolved, so in the end, both sides only agreed to continue discussing.

The second is the theft of US information by Chinese hackers. China has also tried to deny this issue and promised to continue to cooperate with the US to clarify it. Thus, both issues have not been resolved, not to mention many other issues that remain open.

Reporter:Dear Major General, what is your comment on this issue?

Major General Le Van Cuong:If nothing changes, President Xi Jinping will visit the US. They believe and expect that this trip will create a principled relationship that future Presidents cannot change. A week ago, China announced that it had basically completed the construction of artificial islands in Truong Sa, paving the way for Xi Jinping to visit the US at the end of September. I assess that this dialogue prepares a favorable psychological, political and security environment for Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to take place in a more open atmosphere.

Reporter:There is a lot of speculation in the international community about China-US relations. What is your prediction about the future of China-US relations?

Major General Le Van Cuong:This is an important and extremely complicated relationship. The Xi Jinping era will last another 7 years. China's strategy until 2021 is to achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society, bringing the country into the group of middle-income economies with a GDP per capita of 12,000 - 15,000 USD. Along with that, since last year, the Xi Jinping administration has been implementing the "One Belt, One Road" strategy. This is China's global strategy to deal with the US's "pivot" policy and to take over the Eurasian continent. China's most important task is to implement this strategy, to control the Eurasian continent in order to confront the US. Therefore, I think that from now until 2022 there will be no confrontation between the two countries. China will pretend to be important to show the US that the US needs China and try to buy time, confrontation now is suicidal and a disaster for both countries. They both cooperate and compete, hiding confrontation, although the competition is increasingly tense. China will by all means stabilize Sino-US relations to implement its global strategy.

Reporter:How will the relationship as you predicted impact the Asia-Pacific region in general and ASEAN countries in particular?

Major General Le Van Cuong:It can be said that the Asia-Pacific region will not be turbulent, the relations between countries in the region have not been resolved. Countries continue to have conditions for development, but at the same time, it must be noted that when the two countries, the US and China, cooperate and compete with each other, it will affect the security and development in the region. In addition, we must always be alert and vigilant, and be on guard against the US and China, for the sake of greater goals, being willing to sacrifice the interests of small countries to trade interests with each other, avoiding becoming pawns in the political chessboard of the two countries.

Reporter:Major General, in your opinion, how does the US-China relationship affect the US-Russia relationship?

Major General Le Van Cuong:It can be said that from now until 2022, the three countries of the US - Russia - China will dominate the world situation. Therefore, the US - China relationship directly affects the US - Russia relationship. When the US - China cooperation is the main one, Russia is very likely to face the risk of being threatened. This time, if the US - China does not cooperate, it will also affect Russia. It can be predicted that the US does not have enough potential to deal with Russia and China at the same time so as not to push Russia and China closer together. In 2014, with the Ukraine crisis, the US foolishly pushed Russia to cooperate with China. I think this is a mistake and the Obama administration has realized that. In the near future, the US will not let the US - Russia relationship get close to the abyss, because then the beneficial party will be China. Conversely, the US and China cannot confront each other. I think that the current China-US relationship contributes to the US-Russia relationship also tending to develop more and more tension.

Reporter:Thanks for the chat, Major General!

Chi Linh Son

(Perform)