USD rebounds after series of unexpected fluctuations from Fed and White House
The dollar rose slightly to start the week after markets were shaken by poor jobs data, a Fed member resigned and President Trump unexpectedly fired his top statistics official.
USD recovers but long-term trend remains unclear
The USD Index edged up 0.1% to 98.77 after falling 1.3% on Friday.
The US dollar rebounded slightly on August 5 after suffering a sharp decline last weekend due to a series of shocking events: a disappointing jobs report, the unexpected departure of a Federal Reserve Governor, and President Donald Trump's move to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
These fluctuations have led investors to increase expectations that the Fed will soon cut interest rates. However, analysts warn that the recovery of the USD may only be temporary in the context of the US economy starting to show signs of weakness and the continued inconsistent management policy.
US labor market "out of breath"
Data released on August 2 showed that US job growth in July was lower than expected. Notably, the figure for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000 jobs, indicating a significant deterioration in the health of the labor market.
Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA, said the US economy is slowing down in many areas, especially industries affected by the trend of shifting production abroad.
In the trading session on August 5, the USD increased slightly against the euro, Swiss franc and commodity currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1576.
The Swiss franc lost 0.5% to $0.8078, amid the Trump administration's threat to impose higher tariffs on Switzerland.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell 0.2% and 0.3% to $0.6463 and $0.5904 respectively.
Against the Japanese yen, the USD rose 0.3% to 146.945 JPY.
Politics continues to cast a shadow over the market
President Trump abruptly fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday, accusing her of falsifying employment data. On the same day, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler submitted her resignation, paving the way for Trump to quickly appoint a new Fed official.
Investors see this as an opportunity for Mr. Trump to shape monetary policy in the direction of "easing to promote inflation", in the context that he has repeatedly criticized the Fed for not lowering interest rates quickly enough.
The US President said he will soon announce two replacements for the BLS and the Fed in the next few days.
Interest rate markets react strongly
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell to a three-month low of 3.659% amid speculation the Fed could cut rates in September. The yield on the 10-year note also hovered around a one-month low of 4.2257%.
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now at 84%. The market is also pricing in nearly 60 basis points of rate cuts between now and the end of the year, which equates to two certain cuts and a 40% chance of a third.
Domestic USD exchange rate 5/8
On the morning of August 5, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate at 25,240 VND/USD, down 9 VND compared to yesterday.
At the State Bank of Vietnam, the reference exchange rate was listed at VND24,028 for buying and VND26,452 for selling, up from the previous day.
In the commercial banking system, the USD price tends to decrease.
Specifically, Vietcombank quoted buying prices of VND25,980 and selling prices of VND26,370, down VND10. At BIDV, the corresponding prices were VND26,001 and VND26,361. VietinBank traded at VND25,870 - 26,380/USD.
