Germany: CDU victory brings Merkel to 4th term?

With the CDU's victory on May 14, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, leader of the CDU, is moving closer to a fourth term.

In Germany, there are no nominating conferences and Germans cannot elect their chancellor directly.

But regional state elections are seen as important indicators. The May 14 election in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), is particularly important, especially now, four months before the general election for the Bundestag on September 24.

Big "boost" for Merkel's CDU Party

With the election results last Sunday (May 14), the defeat of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the victory of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will elevate the position of CDU leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel. This is a big boost for Ms. Merkel's party.

North Rhine-Westphalia is the SPD's 'holy land' and the power shift counts more here than anywhere else. The SPD held an absolute majority in the state for 15 years from 1980 to 1995. Since 1966, the CDU has only managed to form a government for one term, from 2005 to 2010. It is therefore no surprise that the German media have called the CDU's victory on 14 May a "political shock".

The CDU appears to be on a winning streak. Sunday’s election was the third regional election this year in which the party has won. In Saarland, the CDU leader was re-elected, the SPD was defeated in Schleswig-Holstein over the weekend and the same scenario was repeated in North Rhine-Westphalia. According to some political observers, Ms Merkel is basically assured of victory in the general election in September.

SPD on the defensive

When Ms Merkel's rival Martin Schulz was appointed SPD chairman and candidate for chancellor in January this year, it gave Mr Schulz's party a dramatic boost: its popularity soared in the polls and it added thousands of new members.

But that momentum appears to have fizzled out and Mr Schulz now appears to pose no real threat to Chancellor Merkel.

Recent polls across Germany confirm this. The SPD's popularity is back to where it was before Mr Schulz was elected. This could be bad news for Mr Schulz, who has admitted that he is no "magician". He has vowed to fight on, but he is facing an uphill battle.

So far, Mr Schulz has been mum on his strategy. His favourite theme of “social justice” appears to be gaining little traction. Meanwhile, the CDU’s campaign focus on increased security appears to be winning more support from voters.

Recent regional elections have brought a “real revival” for the CDU. The CDU had performed poorly at the state level in previous years, leading to a weakening of Ms Merkel’s power in the Bundesrat, Germany’s upper house of parliament. Ms Merkel, as head of the CDU, bears responsibility for this defeat.

But the result on May 14 shows that the CDU has not only attracted voters from other parties, but has also been able to mobilize non-voters who have "turned their backs" on politics in recent years. Voter turnout in recent state elections has increased across Germany.

Far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) loses momentum

Meanwhile, Germany’s right-wing populists appear to have stalled. Although they passed the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament on May 14, the party failed to gain a majority.

Unlike in many parts of Europe, the party's status is similar to that of smaller parties like the Greens and the Left Party. On the other hand, both the CDU and the SPD are working hard to maintain their status as major parties in Germany and keep German politics relatively stable.

It can be said that the victory on May 14 has paved the way for alternatives to the "grand coalition" between the SPD and the CDU that currently governs Germany. With the revival of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the CDU's traditional coalition partner is returning, and that means that a combination of old and new could be a real possibility for Germany's future./.

According to VOV