Germany: Will the CDU victory lead Merkel to a fourth term?

With the CDU party's victory on May 14th, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the CDU leader, is moving closer to a fourth term.

In Germany, there are no candidate selection conferences, and Germans cannot directly elect their chancellor.

However, regional state parliamentary elections are considered important indicators. The election held on May 14th in Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), is particularly significant, especially at this time, four months before the general election for the Federal Parliament on September 24th.

A major boost for Merkel's CDU party.

With the results of last Sunday's election (May 14th), the defeat of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the victory of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will boost the standing of CDU leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel. This is a major boost for Merkel's party.

North Rhine-Westphalia is the SPD's 'sacred ground,' and the power shift is more significant there than anywhere else. The SPD held an absolute majority in this state for the past 15 years, from 1980 to 1995. Since 1966, the CDU has only managed to form a single-term government, from 2005 to 2010. Therefore, it's not surprising that the German media has called the CDU's May 14th victory a "political shock."

The CDU appears to be on track for victory. Sunday's election was the third regional election this year in which the party has won. In Saarland, the CDU leader was re-elected; over the weekend, the SPD was defeated in Schleswig-Holstein, and a similar scenario unfolded in North Rhine-Westphalia. According to some political observers, Merkel has essentially secured victory in the general election next September.

SPD is on the defensive.

When Merkel's rival, Martin Schulz, was appointed chairman of the SPD and became a candidate for German chancellor in January of this year, it gave Schulz's party an incredible boost: its popularity soared in opinion polls and it gained thousands of new members.

However, that momentum seems to have subsided, and Schulz now appears to no longer pose a real threat to Chancellor Merkel.

Recent opinion polls across Germany have confirmed this. The SPD's popularity is returning to square one, just as it was before Schulz's nomination. This could be bad news for Schulz, who has admitted that he is not a "magician." He has vowed to continue the fight, but he is now facing a tough battle.

So far, Schulz has not revealed much about his strategy. His favorite theme of "social justice" doesn't seem to be garnering much support. Meanwhile, the issue of increased security, a central focus of the CDU's election campaign, appears to be more appealing to voters.

Recent regional elections have brought about a "real revival" for the CDU. The CDU had performed poorly at the state level in previous years, leading to a weakening of Merkel's power in the Bundesrat, the German upper house of parliament. Merkel, as head of the CDU, bears responsibility for this failure.

However, the May 14th results show that not only has the CDU attracted voters from other parties, but it has also been able to mobilize non-voters who had "turned their backs" on politics in recent years. Voter turnout in recent state elections has increased across Germany.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is losing momentum.

Meanwhile, the right-wing populists in Germany appear to be stalled. Although they surpassed the 5% threshold needed to represent parliament on May 14, the party did not win a significant number of votes.

Unlike in many other parts of Europe, this party's position is similar to that of smaller parties like the Green Party and the Left Party. On the other hand, both the CDU and SPD are striving to protect their positions as major parties in Germany and maintain a relatively stable German political landscape.

It could be said that the victory on May 14th paved the way for replacements for the current "grand coalition" between the SPD and CDU that leads Germany. With the resurgence of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the CDU's traditional coalition partner, returning, this means that a combination of old and new could be a realistic possibility for Germany's future.

According to VOV