Duterte may not be as assertive on the South China Sea when he visits China

Observers believe that Philippine President Duterte will not "go all the way" on the ruling of the international arbitration court when he visits China.

Philippine President Duterte. Photo: Inquirer.

"I think Mr. Duterte's recent declaration that he will not give in to China on sovereignty in the East Sea is because he feels the "heat" of the Philippine elite with his pro-China and anti-US views," Ei Sun Oh, an expert atS. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, spoke with VnExpress.

The Philippine president said yesterday that he would discuss with China the international arbitration ruling, not haggle anywhere and continue to assert Manila's sovereignty in the South China Sea. He also agreed that he could be impeached if he made concessions on Scarborough Shoal like that.Philippine Supreme Court Justice stated.Mr. Duterte's statement was made before he left for a visit to China from October 18 to 21.

On July 12, the arbitral tribunal under Annex VII of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) issued a ruling on the case of the Philippines against China, rejecting Beijing's unreasonable "nine-dash line" claim in the East Sea. China declared that it did not recognize the ruling, prompting many countries to demand that Beijing comply.

According to Ei Sun Oh, the Philippine President must show himself as a protector of the people's rights.

Agree with this opinion,Joseph Franco, an expert at Nanyang University, said Mr. Duterte's statement seemed to be "aimed at domestic audiences." The Philippine president has been consistent in his stance that he will not use the arbitration court's ruling to "condemn" China.will not pressure China to withdraw its forces fromScarborough Shoal.

“Maybe Duterte will just mention the fishermen’s right to fish and get it over with. He won’t mention it explicitly,” Franco said.

According to Franco, Duterte’s visit to China is clearly planned to be focused on trade. He is expected to be accompanied by a large group of Chinese-Filipino businessmen. The agreements to be signed could be infrastructure and transport projects, agriculture, such as China lifting its ban on Philippine banana imports.

Reuters news agency said there were about200 business leaders will accompany Mr Duterte on his visit to China, paving the way for what he calls a new trade alliance.

ExpertEi Sun Oh assessed that the trade and infrastructure agreements expected to be signed between the Philippines and China are areascooperation has been stalled for the past few years due to the South China Sea dispute. At this point, normalizing relations would help create a foundation for stronger cooperation.

Explaining Mr. Duterte's stance on China's position on the East Sea, Ei Sun Oh said that the Philippine president showed that "it would be difficult to win if there was a conflict with China". Therefore, Mr. Duterte raised the issue in a realistic way, suggesting that both sides could prevent the escalation of tensions in this area.

"He only raised the Philippine sovereignty issues, and the Chinese side will not give in no matter what," Ei Sun Oh said.

China has occupied Scarborough Shoal since 2012. Photo: SCMP

According to VNE