Decoding Iran's Missile Arsenal in War with Israel

In an unprecedented move, Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israeli territory on October 1. An estimated 180 ballistic missiles were launched, making it the largest missile attack Israel has ever faced.

Although most of these missiles were successfully intercepted by the missile defense systems of Israel, the US and Jordan, this attack is still considered a serious provocation, directly threatening the security of Israel and the region.

This latest air strike marks a significant escalation from the one in April. With its greater scale and intensity, the attack has increased tensions in an already volatile region, pushing the Middle East closer than ever to a large-scale conflict.

A 2021 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) revealed Iran's considerable military might by showing that the Tehran regime possesses a huge missile arsenal, including thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles with diverse ranges.

While the exact number is unknown, estimates suggest that Iran possesses a massive ballistic missile arsenal. US Air Force General Kenneth McKenzie told the US Congress in 2023 that Tehran had “more than 3,000” ballistic missiles, raising serious concerns about the country’s military capabilities.

According to a recent report by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, this information shows that Iran possesses a significant military power, enough to have a major impact on regional security.

The trajectory of a ballistic missile is extremely complex, taking it high into the atmosphere, or close to it. The warhead then separates and plunges down towards its target at great speed and with tremendous destructive power.

Weapons experts who analyzed verified social media videos of the attack scene told CNN that Iran used variants of the Shahab-3 ballistic missile in the latest attack on Israel.

According to Patrick Senft, research coordinator at the Armament Research Service (ARES), the Shahab-3 ballistic missile is the basis for all of Iran's liquid-fueled medium-range ballistic missiles.

The Shahab-3, which entered service in 2003, can carry a warhead weighing between 760 and 1,200 kg and can be launched from mobile launchers as well as silos. The latest variants of this ballistic missile are the Ghadr and Emad missiles, which are accurate to within 300 meters of the intended target.

Separately, Iranian media reported that Tehran used a new missile, the Fattah-1, in the attacks. Tehran describes the Fattah-1 as a “hypersonic” missile, meaning it travels at Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound (about 6,100 kilometers per hour).

But analysts point out that most ballistic missiles reach hypersonic speeds while in flight, especially as they hurtle toward their target.

The term “hypersonic” is often used to refer to so-called hypersonic glide vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles, highly advanced weapons that can maneuver at supersonic speeds inside the Earth’s atmosphere. That makes such weapons extremely difficult to shoot down.

Fabian Hinz, a leading weapons expert, said that Iran's Fattah-1 missile possesses unique technology. Instead of being just a cruise missile or a conventional aircraft, the Fattah-1 is equipped with a "steerable reentry vehicle". This means that the missile's warhead is capable of adjusting its trajectory during the final phase, effectively helping it evade missile defense systems.

According to Fabian Hinz, this is a significant step forward compared to Iran's previous generations of missiles, demonstrating the country's remarkable development in aerospace technology.

However, military experts are skeptical that Iran will deploy the new missile in this attack. Trevor Ball, a veteran weapons expert, said: "This is an important military asset for Iran. They may want to keep it for use in more important situations or to thoroughly evaluate its effectiveness before putting it into widespread use."