What are the risks involved in Israel's retaliatory strike options against Iran?

Israel is considering retaliatory strikes against Iran. It could choose to target Iranian military bases, key economic facilities, or even nuclear plants. However, US President Joe Biden has warned Israel that the US will not support any Israeli attack on nuclear plants. Meanwhile, other Western countries have also urged Israel to remain calm.

Iran’s current air defense system is limited and may not be able to withstand modern Israeli missile or air strikes. This was demonstrated by Israel’s attack on April 19, when the country carried out a precision strike that partially destroyed the Russian S-300 air defense system in the city of Isfahan, an important military industrial center of Iran. Through this attack, Israel wanted to send a clear message about its military capabilities and deter Iran.

Fabian Hinz, a leading Middle East expert at the UK's International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Israel was considering various strategic options, which could include strikes on Iranian military or economic targets, if it decided not to attack nuclear plants.

Military objectives

The most direct response, according to Fabian Hinz, would be for Israel to attempt to strike Iran’s cluster of missile and drone bases, which are underground and in some cases “deep under mountains.” While they could be bombed and their entrances blocked, the bases are designed to withstand all types of conventional explosives.

Alternatives could include expanding attacks on Iran’s air defenses beyond current bases to include key areas such as Tehran, Isfahan, and ports. Another option is to carry out more sophisticated attacks, such as using drones to destroy weapons factories, similar to the January 2023 attack on the Isfahan factory.

However, it should be noted that any attack could lead to unintended consequences, such as civilian casualties and escalating tensions in the region.

Oil Infrastructure and Economic Infrastructure Targets

An attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure has been considered a possible response to the Israeli ballistic missile attack. The most widely considered target is the Kharg oil port, which handles about 90% of Iran’s crude exports, much of which is shipped to China. Other important facilities include the Abadan refinery, near the border with Iraq, which handles a significant portion of Iran’s domestic oil needs.

According to expert Fabian Hinz, Iran’s oil sector is a major vulnerability. If attacked, it could be severely damaged, with long-term negative effects on the country’s already unstable economy. Hinz cited Israel’s bombing of Yemen as an example. Targeting fuel, power, and port facilities such as Ras Issa and Hodeidah shows that attacks on economic infrastructure can cause serious and lasting damage.

A major question in the wake of Iran’s attack is whether the economic response is truly proportionate. While Iran claims to have attacked Israeli military facilities, causing minor damage, a school in Ashkelon was hit, causing serious damage. The fact that a civilian facility was hit raises questions about Iran’s ability to control its attacks and raises concerns about the humanitarian consequences.

A widespread Israeli attack could escalate tensions and provoke a more severe response from Iran. Major General Bagheri, Iran's military chief of staff, warned that if attacked, Iran would not retaliate with just a few missiles but would launch a larger salvo and hit more targets. He also said that subsequent attacks would be more powerful and target Israel's entire infrastructure.

Expanding the targeted killing plan

A report in the New York Times said that Israel could take a different tack, expanding its targeted killing program further into Iran. It has demonstrated its ability to carry out assassinations in Tehran, after killing Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in late July. It detonated an explosive device that had been secretly planted two months earlier in the guest house where he was staying.

Israel is suspected of assassinating several top Iranian scientists who were working on nuclear energy. The most high-profile assassination was that of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was shot dead with a special remote-controlled machine gun in late 2020. But Israel was unfazed when Iran threatened to retaliate with missiles. The Israeli prime minister publicly said that Iran would suffer the consequences.

Targets of nuclear facilities

Military experts believe that Israel cannot carry out a destructive attack on Iran's nuclear network without direct military support from the United States. The main sites where Iran is enriching uranium to 60% purity, Natanz and Fordow, are both underground, under dozens of meters of rock and concrete.

“The only conventional weapon that can achieve this is the US GBU-57A/B large armor-piercing bomb, which weighs more than 12 tons and is 6 meters long, and can only be carried by large US bombers such as the B-2 Spirit,” said an article published last April by the Journal of the Atomic Scientists.

If Israel were to attack smaller parts of Iran’s nuclear program, such as centrifuge plants (used to enrich uranium, which is needed to make a bomb), it could slow down Iran’s nuclear program. However, such an attack could also anger Iran and make it more determined to develop a nuclear bomb in retaliation. In other words, instead of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, the attack could actually make Iran want one even more.

Military experts say: "The Tehran government may consider weaponizing its nuclear program as the only remaining option that can ensure the security of the Iranian regime."