Professor correctly predicted 5 US presidential elections and said Trump would win

Although US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is always weaker than his Democratic opponent in most public opinion surveys, a famous professor in New York predicts that he will still be elected president.

Mr. Helmut Norpoth in an interview with Fox News. (Photo: Fox News)

In an interview with the New York Post yesterday, October 24, Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University, said: “I think he (Trump) is the strongest candidate in the primaries and he will win.” He said that billionaire Trump has an 87% chance of winning the presidency.

Mr. Norpoth, who has correctly predicted five elections, has developed a prediction model that, if applied back to every US presidential election since 1912, has given accurate results, except for the 2000 election when he predicted that Democratic candidate Al Gore would surely win against Republican opponent George W. Bush.

This model is based on the assessment that whichever candidate performs better in the primary elections in the form of ballots or caucuses, the better candidate will have a better chance of entering the White House.

For this year's election, Mr. Norpoth compared Mr. Trump's and Mrs. Clinton's performances in South Carolina and New Hampshire and found that Mr. Trump did better. He also explained that his model is based on the argument that changes occur after a party has run the White House for two consecutive terms. In fact, President Barack Obama, representing the Democratic Party, has served two consecutive presidential terms.

Although the political landscape has shifted significantly since Mr. Norpoth predicted Mr. Trump’s victory, he still stands by his position: “The model predicted a Trump victory in February, and that has not changed since then. Whatever happens will not affect the model,” Mr. Norpoth said.

US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. (Photo: Getty)

Sharing the same view with Mr. Nottpoth, last month, Mr. Allan Lichtman, a professor at an American university, also predicted that Mr. Trump would win the presidential election. He said that he relied on a system of true and false statements that he called "Keys to the White House" to predict who would be the next president. This system includes 13 "keys" corresponding to 13 evaluation platforms. These include evaluation of the advantage of the candidate's party, the advantage of the incumbent president, the independent party, the short- and long-term economic situation, changes in policy, social instability, diplomatic or military achievements, and the persuasiveness of the candidate himself.

Since 1984, Mr. Lichtman has correctly predicted the results of 8 US presidential elections, all based on the above prediction system. For this year's election, Mr. Lichtman predicts that Mr. Trump is likely to win, and he also admits that Mr. Trump's participation makes this year's US presidential election more unpredictable than ever.

The above predictions are considered quite surprising because recent public opinion polls have shown that Mr. Trump is somewhat at a disadvantage compared to his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. For example, surveys by the Washington Post and ABC News show that Mrs. Clinton's support rate is 50%, far exceeding Mr. Trump's rate of 38%. Mr. Trump's campaign representative himself also admitted that this New York billionaire is losing to Mrs. Clinton. The New York Times, based on surveys and assessments, even said that Mrs. Clinton has a 92% chance of winning the presidency, while Mr. Trump's chance of becoming the owner of the White House is gradually closing.

According to Dan Tri