The 2015 G7 Summit: Opening New Doors

(Baonghean) - The G7 Summit held in Germany on June 7-8 was the latest international event to attract public attention. A reporter from Baonghean newspaper had a conversation with Major General Le Van Cuong, former Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies under the Ministry of Public Security, about this issue.

G7 heads of state are meeting in Germany. (Image: Internet)

PV:General, could you please give us a brief overview of the G7 group of countries?

Major General Le Van Cuong:First, in terms of its organizational nature, the G7 is not an alliance, forum, club, or dialogue group. The G7 is a group of the world's most industrialized nations.

Economically, these countries completed industrialization 100 years ago – the earliest in the world. Currently, their GDP accounts for 70% of the world's GDP.

In terms of science, this is the world's knowledge center. A concrete example: 80% of annual inventions and discoveries, and 85% of the world's Nobel Prizes, are awarded to G7 countries.

Politically, this group includes three permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. In terms of security, with the exception of Canada and Japan, the remaining countries are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Historically, six out of seven countries were imperialist nations that waged wars of colonial conquest across the planet.

With the characteristics mentioned above, the G7 is considered an "elite" group and also a group that imposes the world order. A visual example is that leading economic organizations such as the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) all abide by the "rules of the game" set by the G7.

PV:General, returning to the 2015 G7 Summit, what were the differences compared to the 2014 G7 Summit?

Major General Le Van Cuong:There are four fundamental differences:

Firstly, politically, while the atmosphere surrounding the 2014 G7 summit was the Ukrainian crisis and sanctions against Russia, this issue has temporarily "cooled down" at the 2015 G7 summit. I believe this is because the relationship between the West and Russia has reached a limit and the issue has been temporarily resolved by the Minsk peace agreement in February. Of course, this is a positive change.

Secondly, economically, this year's G7 summit also saw many positive developments. The US economy – the "backbone" of the group – experienced significant growth. Japan began to recover from the 2014 recession. Although EU countries still had some hotspots, they were generally stable. Overall, this G7 summit had a more optimistic economic atmosphere.

Thirdly, regarding security, the issue of ISIS has emerged as a thorny question for the G7. It's worth remembering that exactly one year ago, President Obama declared to 320 million Americans and 8 billion people worldwide that the US would destroy ISIS by any means necessary. Yet, to this day, ISIS continues to operate freely in the Middle East, despite the efforts of the US-led international coalition.

Fourth, security remains a key issue, but the hotspot has shifted to the Asia-Pacific region: the South China Sea. This year, the G7's concern for the South China Sea and East China Sea is significantly more pronounced than in 2014. The G7 openly demanded a halt to the reclamation of submerged reefs in the Spratly Islands for military bases; and the assurance of maritime safety and security for this bustling trade route. I believe this progress in the G7's attitude towards the East China Sea and South China Sea is due to China's increasingly aggressive and arrogant actions, which not only threaten regional security, politics, and economics but also directly impact nations worldwide, including the G7.

PV:General, recently there has been much discussion about the BRICS group as a formidable competitor to the G7. What are your thoughts on this view?

Major General Le Van Cuong:BRICS – the group of the world's largest emerging economies – is indeed a new and exciting factor on the international balance of power. Many studies suggest that within 15-20 years, BRICS could become the center of the world economy, replacing the role of the G7. Of course, there are certain arguments to support this, such as: the size of China's economy; the rising power of India, Russia, and Brazil; and the 2008 financial crisis which weakened three major economic centers: Japan, the US, and Europe.

Personally, I believe that the near future is probably not enough for BRICS to "dethrone" the G7. Despite their rapid growth, the level and quality of BRICS development remain lower than that of the G7. BRICS also faces numerous internal problems. China has $28 trillion in public debt, nearly three times its GDP. Russia's economy is stagnant due to its slow transition process, compounded by Western sanctions and embargoes. I agree with some scholars who view the world economy as a concentric three-ring model, with the G7 at the center and BRICS only at the outer ring.

PV:So, in that model, where does the G20 fit in, General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:By conventional logic, the G20 naturally includes the G7. Following the same logic, one would assume that the G7 is the core, concentrating power that makes decisive decisions on major global issues.

But in recent years, the reality is that major global economic issues are only resolved within the G20 forum. This means that the dominant power of the G7 is gradually being transferred and "diluted" outside the G20 circle. Does this mean the G7 is weakening?

I think the reason lies more with the other side. It's not because the G7 is weakening, but because the world is "strengthening." When the world develops to a certain level, it will transcend the confines of the G7 circle. The G20 emerged at a time when the global economy demanded economic democracy, with decision-making power fragmented instead of concentrated in the hands of just a few countries as before.

While the G7 was a dominant group, the G20 leans towards a cooperative one. This is a positive trend that the whole world agrees on.

PV:General, what direction do you predict the G7 will develop in the near future?

Major General Le Van Cuong:As I mentioned above, it's likely that within the next 15-20 years, the G7 circle will still exist and not be broken, but its power will increasingly narrow compared to the G20. This doesn't mean we should diminish the role of the G7; the question is, with whom should we establish relationships and at what level?

I believe that the more countries Vietnam expands its partnerships with, the better. However, our strategy must be focused in order to progress quickly. On this foreign policy path, the G7 will continue to receive special attention, but at the same time, we will open our doors wider and look more broadly, integrating into the general trends of the world.

PV:Thank you, Major General, for the conversation!

Thuc Anh - Phuong Thao

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