G7 Summit 2015: Opening a new door

(Baonghean) - The G7 Summit held in Germany on June 7-8 is the latest international event that has attracted public attention. Nghe An Newspaper reporter had a conversation with Major General Le Van Cuong - Former Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the Ministry of Public Security on this issue.

G7 heads of state meet in Germany. Photo: Internet

PV:Could you please give us an overview of the G7 group of countries?

Major General Le Van Cuong:First of all, in terms of organizational nature, the G7 is not an alliance, a forum, a club or a dialogue. The G7 is a group of the most developed industrial countries in the world.

Economically, these are the countries that completed industrialization 100 years ago - the earliest in the world. Currently, the GDP of these countries accounts for 70% of the world's GDP.

Scientifically, this is the world's knowledge center. A concrete proof: 80% of the world's annual inventions and discoveries and 85% of the world's Nobel Prizes belong to G7 countries.

Politically, this group includes three permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. In terms of security, except for Canada and Japan, the remaining countries are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Historically, 6/7 countries were imperialist countries, having organized wars of colonial conquest across the planet.

With the above characteristics, G7 is considered an “elite” group and also a group that imposes order on the world. A visual example is that leading economic organizations such as the World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Trade Organization (WTO) all comply with the “rules of the game” set by G7.

PV:Dear Major General, going back to the 2015 G7 Summit, what is different compared to the 2014 G7 Summit?

Major General Le Van Cuong:There are four basic differences:

Firstly, in terms of politics, if the atmosphere that dominated the 2014 G7 Summit was the Ukraine crisis and sanctions against Russia, this issue has temporarily “cooled down” in the 2015 G7 Summit. I think that is because the relationship between the West and Russia has reached its limit and the issue has been temporarily “tied up” by the Minsk Peace Agreement last February. Of course, this is a change in a positive direction.

Second, in terms of economy, this year's G7 also had many improvements. The US economy - the "backbone" of the group - has seen quite a development. Japan has begun to recover from the recession of 2014. Although there are still hot spots in the EU, the economy is basically stable. In general, this year's G7 Summit has a more cheerful economic atmosphere.

Third, in terms of security, the IS issue has emerged as a thorny question for the G7. Just to remind readers, exactly one year ago, President Obama declared to 320 million Americans and 8 billion people on the planet that the US would destroy IS by all means. But to this day, IS is still "rampant" in the Middle East, despite the efforts of the US-led international coalition.

Fourth, the issue of security is still there, but the hot spot has been “moved” to Asia-Pacific, the issue of the East Sea. This year, the G7’s concern for the East Sea and the East China Sea is much more evident than in 2014. The G7 publicly requested to stop the conversion of submerged rocks in Truong Sa into military bases; to ensure maritime safety and security for the busiest trade route on the planet. The reason for such a step forward in the G7’s attitude towards the East China Sea and the East Sea issues, I believe, is because China’s increasingly aggressive and arrogant actions are not only a threat to regional security, politics and economics, but also directly affect countries around the world, including the G7.

PV:Dear Major General, recently people have been talking a lot about the BRICS group as a formidable competitor to the G7. What is your opinion on this point of view?

Major General Le Van Cuong:BRICS - the group of the world's largest newly developed economies - is truly a new and interesting factor in the international balance. Many studies suggest that within the next 15 - 20 years, BRICS could be the center of the world economy, replacing the role of G7. Of course, there are certain arguments such as: the size of China's economy; the rising power of India, Russia, Brazil; the 2008 currency crisis that weakened the three economic centers of Japan, the US and Europe.

Personally, I think that the near future is not enough for BRICS to "overthrow" the G7. Despite its rapid growth rate, the level and quality of development of BRICS is still lower than that of G7. BRICS also has many problems internally. A China with 28 trillion dollars in public debt, nearly 3 times larger than GDP. A stagnant Russian economy due to the slow transition process, in addition to the sanctions and embargo imposed by the West. I agree with some scholars who reflect the world economic model according to the 3-circle concentric model with the central circle being G7, and BRICS only being on the outer circle.

PV:So in that model, where does the G20 stand, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:By common logic, the G20 of course includes the G7. By the same logic, one would think that the G7 is the core, concentrating decisive power over major world issues.

But in recent years, it has become a fact that major global economic issues are only resolved within the G20 forum. This means that the G7’s dominant power is gradually being transferred, “diluted” to the G20 circle. Does this mean that the G7 is weakening?

I think the reason is more on the other side. It is not because the G7 is weakening, but because the world is “strengthening”. When the world develops to a certain level, it will go beyond the limits of the inner circle of the G7. The G20 appeared at the right time when the world economy required economic democracy, with decision-making power divided instead of being concentrated in the hands of just a few countries as before.

If the G7 is a dominant group, the G20 is more of a cooperative group. That is a positive trend that the whole world agrees on.

PV:Dear Major General, in what direction do you predict the G7 will develop in the coming time?

Major General Le Van Cuong:As I said above, it is likely that in 15-20 years, the G7 circle will still exist and not be broken, but the limit of its power will increasingly narrow the gap with the G20 circle. Saying so does not mean that we should lower the role of the G7, but the question is who should we establish relationships with and at what level?

I think that the more countries we expand our partnership with, the better. But our strategy must be focused to move forward quickly. On that foreign policy roadmap, the G7 will still receive special attention, but at the same time, we will open our doors and look more widely, joining the general trend of the world.

PV:Thank you, Major General, for the chat!

Thuc Anh - Phuong Thao

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