How deep is Russia-China military cooperation?

NATURAL REACTION

Western SkyPacificbecame the focus of regional military attention when Russian and Chinese bombers conducted a joint patrol mission on December 22. The Russian Defense Ministry affirmed that the patrol aimed to “develop and deepen the comprehensive partnership between Russia and China, further enhance the level of cooperation between the two countries’ militaries, expand the possibility of joint action and strengthen strategic stability” and was “not aimed at any third country”. However, this development made Japan and South Korea “unable to take their eyes off”. Both countries have mobilized aircraft to monitor the activities of Russian and Chinese aircraft and prepared for “unforeseen” situations.

A Chinese H-6K strategic bomber participates in a joint patrol mission over the Western Pacific with Russia on December 22, 2020. Photo: AP

The Western Pacific Ocean is not only a strategic area for Russia and China, but also a location with maritime disputes between countries in the region such as China and Japan in the East China Sea, Japan and Korea on Takeshima/Dokdo Island and a US military base in Japan. Therefore, the appearance of Russian and Chinese bombers in this sensitive area immediately caught the attention of countries in the region. This is the second time that Russia and China have organized such a joint patrol, demonstrating the increasingly close military relationship between Moscow and Beijing.

Since China and Russiaupgrade relationshipupgraded their relations to “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for a New Era, Characterized by Greater Mutual Support” in June 2019, cooperation between the two countries has truly expanded and accelerated in all areas, including the military. The two countries regularly participate in land and sea exercises. In 2019, Russia and China held two notable events: joint air patrols and missile defense cooperation. Two Russian Tu-95 long-range bombers accompanied Chinese Xian H6-K bombers on a joint patrol over international waters between Japan and the Korean Peninsula, forcing both countries to conduct interception operations. In October 2019, Russian President Putin revealed that Russia is helping China develop a missile launch detection system.

There are many reasons for the “rapprochement” between Russia and China in the defense field. Firstly, this is an important aspect in the framework of common cooperation that the two countries are aiming for. Secondly, the security and political environment in the region is volatile and changing, the approach of both Beijing and Moscow is to seek partners who share the same perspective and viewpoint on many common international issues... Thirdly, there is the US factor. Since the 1970s, analysts have used the strategic triangle to illustrate models inrelations between the US, Russia and China. According to this triangular logic, strengthening Sino-Russian relations would be a “natural response” to the current tensions in US-Russia and US-China relations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping enter the hall during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on June 5, 2019. Photo: AFP

RUSSIA-CHINA MILITARY ALLIANCE?

The growing military cooperation between Russia and China raises the possibility of a military alliance between the two countries. This idea is not far-fetched, as it seems that the leaders of both China and Russia are adjusting their bilateral relationship after tensions with Western countries. While Moscow has long referred to Beijing as a “partner” or “friend,” in recent statements, senior Kremlin officials have chosen a rather strong word: “allies.”

For example, on November 24, Russian President Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the President of Russia, welcomed the successful launch of China's new lunar exploration mission "Chang'e-5" and sent his congratulations to "our allies, our Chinese comrades". In particular, last October, when participating in the Valdai Discussion Club forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the possibility of establishing a military alliance between Russia and China. He emphasized that it was a completely possible theoretical thinking but not urgent at the moment. Immediately, this comment became the top topic on international military forums.

Meanwhile, China has been more cautious but has also stressed that “there is no limit to the traditional Sino-Russian friendship.” In a recent phone call with his Russian counterpart, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed that Moscow and Beijing play the role of “global stabilizers” that help reduce regional disputes.

Soldiers of the Chinese People's Liberation Army march towards Red Square during the Victory Day parade marking the 75th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany at Red Square in Moscow, Russia on June 24, 2020. Photo: AP

In fact, these statements are not surprising. Russia and China have noticed thetheir relationship with the Westare at their lowest point since the Cold War. The old adage “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” can now be applied when it comes to Sino-Russian-US relations at this time. Both Russia and China foresee little improvement in their relations with the US under the new Joe Biden administration. In addition, Moscow and Beijing are also viewed with skepticism in their relations with Europe. For a long time, the EU focused on Russia and ignored China as a threat. But according to a new NATO report released on December 2, China is considered a threat to “undermine the security of allies”. Meanwhile, Russia remains on Brussels’ sanctions list.

Clearly, the world political context “pushes” Russia and China closer together. However, the possibility of forming a military bloc between Russia and China remains very low. Currently, China is still a member of the Non-Aligned Movement, a group of 120 countries that are not allied with any major power bloc. China considers this a core element of its independent foreign policy for many decades and may not want to change the balanced bilateral cooperation model with Moscow. For its part, Russia, although well-intentioned, also realizes that the two countries have formed a state of deep cooperation in security relations, so there is no need to formalize this relationship further. In addition, perhaps neither Russia nor China wants to aggravate tensions with Western countries in the event of a military alliance.