IMF forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth at 5.1%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues to cut its global GDP growth forecast, with Vietnam's down 0.3% compared to its forecast in July.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its latest World Economic and Financial Situation Survey report. Accordingly, when forecasting about Vietnam, the International Monetary Fund said that this year, GDP may only grow at 5.1%.

This figure was revised down from the most recent forecast of 5.4%. The GDP outlook for next year was also lowered by 0.3 percentage points, from 6.2% to 5.9%. Longer term, in 2017, Vietnam's gross domestic product could expand at a rate of 7.5%, the IMF forecast.

The IMF report was released ahead of the annual meeting between the IMF and the World Bank, which begins today in Tokyo. Photo: WB

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that Vietnam's inflation this year could fall significantly compared to last year, from 18.7% to 8.1%, and is likely to fall to 6.2% in 2012. However, the IMF believes that with inflation still high, Vietnam is unlikely to be able to apply monetary easing policies unless it slows down domestic demand with financial solutions. According to the IMF, one of Vietnam's top priorities now is still to stabilize public debt through tightening credit finance.

For the world economy, the IMF believes that global growth will only reach 3.3% in 2012 and 3.6% next year, instead of 3.5% and 3.9% respectively as in the July report. Financial stress, decisions to cut public spending, high unemployment and political instability continue to be factors threatening growth in developed countries.

The IMF report, released ahead of its annual meeting with the World Bank in Tokyo, focuses on high-income countries, especially those currently experiencing political and economic instability. The IMF predicts that the group of developed countries, including the US and Germany, will grow by just 1.3% this year, down sharply from 3% in 2010. The forecast for next year is not much better, at 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the group of emerging countries, which were the driving force behind the global economic recovery during the crisis, is now also slowing down. China and India, in particular, are now also affected by the decline in world trade.

According to VnExpress - VT