Iran and P5+1 sign comprehensive nuclear agreement: Positive, progressive and in line with the trend!

(Baonghean) - After a difficult, tense and prolonged negotiation process, yesterday (July 14), Iran and the P5+1 group reached a comprehensive nuclear agreement. This historic agreement will open a new chapter not only for Iran, the US, and the countries participating in the negotiations, but also for peace, stability and development in the region. Nghe An Newspaper interviewed Associate Professor - Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong, former Director of the Institute of Strategic Sciences of the Ministry of Public Security, about this historic agreement.

Overview of the negotiations between Iran and P5+1. Source: AFP/VNA

PV:Major General, Iran and the P5+1 group (the 5 permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany) have just signed a historic comprehensive nuclear agreement. Could you give us an overview of the process of reaching an agreement between the parties?

Major General Le Van Cuong:To reach today's agreement was a long process, going through the following historical milestones:

In August 2003, many Middle Eastern sources, especially Israel and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), provided information that Iran was enriching uranium with the aim of possessing nuclear weapons. And officially the nuclear program began to be on the agenda of the world in general and the United States and the Middle East in particular.

By 2006, Iran officially announced that they were enriching uranium, but for peaceful purposes, serving the mission of economic development, scientific research, and tasks in both agricultural and medical development. But the US's allied countries, mainly Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar... do not believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes. They believe that Iran is pursuing an ambitious nuclear program. And the Gulf allies, especially Israel, have urged the US to do everything possible to prevent the Islamic Republic of Iran from possessing this dangerous weapon. Because in the opinion of these countries, if Iran possesses nuclear weapons, it will be a disaster not only for the region but also for the world.

In that situation, unlike his predecessor George W. Bush, starting in 2009, under President Obama, he made a famous conciliatory speech to the Muslim world in April 2009 at Cairo University. In my opinion, this event marked a new chapter in the US relationship with the Arab world. And then, President Obama was determined to pursue negotiations with Iran starting in 2009.

Although the parties recognized that an agreement was necessary, for 4 years (from 2009-2012), the negotiations were at a standstill due to reasons from both sides, the US and Iran. In 2013, a particularly important event was the Iranian presidential election (June 14). Perhaps with the consent of Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the vast majority of Iranian voters chose Mr. Hassan Rouhani. Rouhani is a moderate figure among the elite of Tehran. Unlike his predecessor who had an anti-American ideology to the end, Rouhani chose the path of dialogue and cooperation with the US with the aim of lifting the embargo. And the constructive dialogue officially began when Rouhani was President of Iran.

Thus, only from 2013 until now, the constructive dialogue has become substantial. By November 2013, P5+1 and Iran had reached a framework agreement to move towards a formal agreement on Tehran’s nuclear issue. And since November 2013, through four missed appointments (July 2014, November 2014, early June 2015 and June 10, 2015).

Yesterday (July 14) made history when Iran and the P5+1 Group (including the UK, France, Russia, China, the US and Germany) reached a comprehensive nuclear agreement, thereby allowing the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for the Islamic Republic limiting its controversial nuclear program over the past 12 years.

PV:In P5+1, public opinion believes that the role of the US is the main one. So why does the Obama administration show determination to pursue the goal of reaching the recently signed nuclear agreement?

Major General Le Van Cuong:International public opinion that the role of the US is the most important is correct, of course we cannot deny the role of other countries such as Russia, China... Because in my opinion, this is an agreement between Iran and P5+1 but in the end, this is an agreement between the US and Iran.

As for why America shows such determination, from the perspective of a scholar, I think there are the following important reasons:

In all public statements by President Obama, his foreign ministers, and the top figures who have been his closest associates in the White House for the past seven years, they have always declared that they will do everything possible to reach an agreement with Iran to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. This is in line with the demands and interests of Israel and America's close allies in the Middle East.

But that is only the public purpose of the United States, but personally, I think that the most important purpose of the United States is to promote a nuclear agreement with Iran. That is, Iran is the center of a series of problems of the contemporary world. We can mention the US-led NATO war in Afghanistan against the terrorist Al Qaeda force, without Iran it would not be successful; that is, security and energy in the Gulf (35% of energy sources go through Iran); or especially the endless competition between the two sects of Shiite and Sunni Islam... all are related to Iran.

Another important reason is to pursue the nuclear agreement to normalize relations with Iran. And when relations with Iran are normalized, it will reduce the role of Russia and China in the South Asia and Middle East regions. Also through Iran, the US will "infiltrate" into Central Asia - which is considered Russia's backyard and this is also the region bordering Tibet and Xinjiang of China. And I think that reducing Russia's role in this region is the deepest purpose but the US never mentions it.

PV:Through the discussion, the Major General clearly pointed out the US's purpose, so what is Iran's purpose and why are they so eager to reach an agreement?

Major General Le Van Cuong:After nearly 10 years of economic sanctions, Iran is in an extremely difficult situation. Over the past 10 years, the United Nations has passed 6 resolutions, including 4 documents related to sanctions against Iran, in addition to sanctions from the US. Under the pressure of these sanctions, the economy and the Rial have lost 32% of their value; unemployment has reached 25%; inflation is around 28%.

Thus, Iran’s goal is to find a compromise with the US to remove all sanctions imposed by the United Nations and the US “jointly”. From there, the economy can be restored. When the economy is restored, Iran will regain its central role in the Shiite Muslim world and become a power in the Middle East. Strong enough to confront the Sunni Muslim world centered on Saudi Arabia, and even to deal with Israel - the country that still considers Iran its number 1 enemy.

PV:So, finally, after a long and thorny process, the negotiating parties have reached an agreement. So, can you assess the international reaction to this agreement?

Major General Le Van Cuong:On this issue, I think that the mainstream of the comprehensive nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 group is fully supportive. Because reaching this agreement means that the most burning issue in the Middle East has been resolved. And in the current world context, the mainstream trend is to promote peace, stability, cooperation and development, so there is no reason why most countries do not support it.

But at the same time, alongside such a positive stream of support for the agreement, there is still a very strong opposition, in which the biggest opposition is Israel. Even Tel Aviv has long declared that "the nuclear agreement with Iran is a historic mistake" and just yesterday (July 14), when Iran and P5+1 shook hands to sign this agreement, Israel also issued a statement of strong opposition. So why does Israel oppose it like that? Israel's point of view is that they do not believe that this agreement "ties Iran's hands" in developing nuclear weapons. And through this agreement, Iran has more conditions to enrich uranium at high levels to produce weapons of mass destruction.

PV:Knowing that there are still many different opinions coming from US allies in the Middle East and within the US and Iran. Can the Major General assess the possibility of implementing this agreement?

Major General Le Van Cuong:As we have seen, all of America's allies in the Middle East, including close allies Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar... strongly oppose this historic agreement. This is because of different approaches, perceptions and interests, so they have different views.

But in my opinion, after 12 years since the Iran nuclear crisis began and after 7 years of negotiations, although a historic agreement has been reached, the road to its realization is still full of obstacles.

First: The first difficulty is the fierce opposition from within the United States and within Iran. In the United States, both houses of the US Congress are currently controlled by the Republican Party. There have been congressmen who have publicly stated that "The President can sign it but it is not certain that it will pass the Congress". Thus, it can be seen that the determination of the Obama administration is very strong, but the fact that the legislative body openly opposes and obstructs it is a great difficulty.

Second: On the Islamic Republic of Iran's side, it can be said that the signing of this agreement had the consent of Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Because without the consent of this supreme leader, no agreement could be signed, let alone an agreement with the United States. However, there are many conservative forces that oppose this agreement because they always consider the United States to be Iran's enemy. This will be a great difficulty for the government of this country. Therefore, in order to realize this agreement, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself and President Hassan Rouhani must thoroughly resolve domestic issues.

I think that the realization of this agreement for both the US and Iran will be achieved, the problem is that they need to resolve the conflicting opinions within each country. As for the fact that the allies, no matter how much they oppose it, must agree.

PV:Assuming this agreement is reached. So from the perspective of a political scholar, what impact will this agreement have on the world political situation in general and the Middle East region in particular in the coming time, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:In my opinion, we cannot yet assess the impact of this agreement on the world political situation. We can only make a general perception that this agreement will contribute to promoting the trend of peace, cooperation and development. In the long term, it may raise other issues, that is, this agreement will impact the US-China and US-Russia relations. But regardless of the impact, in my opinion, this is a positive, progressive agreement that is in line with the trend of today's era.

PV:Thank you, Major General!

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