Ireland can beat Portugal to win a ticket to the 2026 World Cup
A 2-0 win over Portugal puts Ireland back in the race: they must beat Hungary 3-0 in Budapest and wait for Portugal to lose to Armenia to take the lead on head-to-head 2-1.
Troy Parrott scored twice, Cristiano Ronaldo was sent off, and Ireland beat Portugal 2-0. The scoreline was not only shocking, but also opened the door—albeit narrowly—for Ireland to dream of a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup, in a tight Group F.
Group F situation: advantage belongs to Portugal
Portugal leads with 10 points, Hungary follows with 8 points, Ireland with 7 points and Armenia with 2 points. The right to self-determination is still in the hands of the "European Selecao".
| Team | Point |
|---|---|
| Portugal | 10 |
| Hungary | 8 |
| Ireland | 7 |
| Armenia | 2 |
Ireland's scenario of going straight to the 2026 World Cup
The scenario Irish fans have been waiting for requires two conditions to happen simultaneously:
- Ireland beat Hungary 3-0 in Budapest. They then had 10 points and a goal difference of +4.
- Portugal unexpectedly lost to Armenia. At that time, Roberto Martinez's team stopped at 10 points and a goal difference of +4.
When two teams are level on points and goal difference, the head-to-head criteria will determine the rankings. Portugal beat Ireland 1-0 in the first leg, but the return leg ended 2-0 to Ireland. The aggregate score of 2-1 in favor of Ireland helped "The Boys in Green" take the lead in Group F and qualify automatically.
The probability is not high, but the door is still open.
This scenario is unlikely to materialise. Portugal beat Armenia 5-0 in the first leg, while Ireland scoring three goals against Hungary is a big test. Although Ronaldo is suspended for the next match, the EURO 2016 champions' points base and performance still give them a significant advantage.
The realistic path: the play-off ticket
If they fail to finish top, Ireland have a clearer path: reaching the play-offs. They must beat Hungary first. If Portugal wins or draws with Armenia, Ireland will finish second in the group and advance to the play-offs, where they will face another runner-up.
A draw or loss to Hungary would end Ireland's hopes. On the other hand, if Hungary wins to move up to 11 points, Portugal would need to beat Armenia to secure top spot and a direct ticket—a scenario that reaffirms their self-determination.
Tactical perspective and mindset
The 2-0 win over Portugal showed that Ireland can maximise the decisive moment: the mobility of the attack with Parrott, combined with the discipline in the defensive organisation, created enough margin to break down a strong opponent. But recreating the three-goal margin against Hungary is a more difficult task, especially in the context of the pressure of “win big or go out”.
For Portugal, Ronaldo’s red card has necessitated a change in personnel plans, but the squad structure is deep enough to manage the risks. Their focus is simple: not to lose to Armenia, and preferably to win and close out the group in a tidy fashion.
Mini final in Budapest
The Hungary-Ireland clash has the appearance of a final: win to stay alive, lose to leave the game. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Portugal-Armenia match, where developments could change the situation of Group F in just 90 minutes.
Summary of key capabilities
- Ireland go straight to the World Cup: beat Hungary 3-0 and Portugal lose to Armenia; Ireland top on head-to-head 2-1.
- Ireland play-off: beat Hungary, plus Portugal beat or draw Armenia; Ireland finish second.
- Ireland eliminated: draw or lose to Hungary.
Whatever the scenario, Group F is entering its final stages at a breathless pace. And after the 2-0 shock, Ireland have given themselves the right to hope.
