What is Kerry's Plan B for Iran?

(Baonghean.vn) - US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Vienna last weekend, hoping to conclude negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and declare success. He wants to make sure that this agreement must limit Iran's ability to build a nuclear arsenal in the future.

That kind of success now seems elusive. After two days of talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif returned to Tehran for consultations, and diplomats have acknowledged that they are likely to miss today’s (June 30) self-imposed deadline.

In addition, in a televised speech more than a week ago, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appeared to cancel inspections of military sites. Iran had previously blocked access to the sites, but agreements that barred inspections of military sites suspected of being nuclear facilities were also rejected. Khamenei also demanded that the economic sanctions that forced Iran to return to negotiations two years ago be lifted immediately after the deal was signed, rather than in phases to ensure compliance. He also suggested that restrictions on Iran should last less than the proposed 10 to 12 years.

Talks will decide the fate of Iran's nuclear reactors. Photo: Getty Images.

Each of these has the potential to break the deal. Looking back at the history of Iran’s nuclear program, negotiations began 12 years ago, after Iran’s nuclear fuel program was discovered, and continued for a decade on the basis that Iran should abandon it entirely. That effort failed. Iran went from having a few rudimentary centrifuges and no substantial fuel stockpile to a full-blown program with enough fuel on hand to produce multiple weapons.

President Barack Obama used tougher sanctions to bring Iran back to the negotiating table to reach a compromise: Iran would maintain a small, closely monitored fuel program. An interim deal reached in November 2013 halted the expansion of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and eliminated its most dangerous fuel in exchange for sanctions relief. That deal remains in effect and is more favorable to the United States and its negotiating partners than to Iran.

So if no new deal is struck, negotiations continue and the status quo remains, with no significant damage to either side. The question is what happens if the whole process collapses? Kerry needs to prepare for this outcome with a contingency plan.

Plan B, some experts say, would require ensuring there is enough support to escalate sanctions if necessary. That would mean convincing Europe, Russia, India and others not to oppose sanctions. That would require patience from Congress.

Many lawmakers believe Iran is stalling for time to expand its program, as it did under the George W. Bush administration. It could face new sanctions if no deal is reached in the coming days. But that would violate the terms of the interim deal and give Khamenei an excuse to accuse the United States of cheating, thus ending negotiations and continuing to expand Iran’s nuclear program. If that happens, it will be much harder to keep the international community united behind efforts to curb Iran’s program.

Kerry should not sign a bad deal. But to have an effective Plan B, he also needs to ensure that if the whole process collapses, the blame lies not just with the US but with Iran as well.

Thu Giang

(According to Bloomberg)