The biggest 'loser' is not Mrs. Clinton

Billionaire Trump's surprise victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has shown that the biggest loser in this year's race to the White House is American pollsters.

New York shocked by Trump's victory: New Yorkers, mostly Democrats, were shocked by Trump's victory. Zing.vn reporter in the US analyzes the impact of Trump's victory.

When asked about the quality of this year's polls, experienced election forecaster Nate Silver, founder of polling site FiveThirtyEight.com, simply replied: "Terrible."

Forecast shock

Twenty major polling organizations, including television stations and reputable newspapers, have conducted more than 80 national polls since mid-September. Of these, except for the Los Angeles Times in conjunction with USC Tracking, which predicted a Trump victory, all said Clinton had a good chance.

When the final results were determined late on November 8, everyone was probably shocked. They may have even been shocked before that when Mr. Trump won the most fierce battleground states one by one.

Forecasts and reality on the chances of victory of the two candidates, blue represents Mrs. Clinton, red represents Mr. Trump. Graphics: New York Times

On the morning of Election Day, November 8, the polling site RearClearPolitics still showed Clinton with an average of 3.3% more support than Trump nationwide. Just a few hours later, the tables had turned in a startling way, leaving the entire polling community gaping.

FiveThirtyEight.com predicted that Mrs. Clinton would win the swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In the end, Mr. Trump won all four states, and won the election.

Meanwhile, the New York Times predicts that the female Democratic candidate has an 85% chance of winning, and even says that her chances of winning in Wisconsin are up to 93%.

The majority is silent

Like most forecasters, political science professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia believes victory will belong to Mrs. Clinton.

“There is clearly something going on here,” said Professor Sabato, referring to the wrong forecasts, saying hundreds of polls have been conducted this year.

According to the professor, polls largely ignore the number of people who do not publicly express support for Mr. Trump, also known as the "silent majority," for many reasons. That is the cause of the wrong forecast.

Forecasts do not take into account the possibility of a wave of white voters voting for Mr. Trump. Photo: Thanh Tuan.

“There was overwhelming turnout among white voters in rural areas,” Sabato said. They made up the majority of the billionaire’s base. Meanwhile, African-American and millennial voters, who supported Clinton, did not turn out in as many places as expected.

While the decline in the number of black and young voters compared to the 2012 election season had been predicted, pollsters "did not take into account the possibility of a wave of white voters in rural areas."

Clinton's internal polling system also miscalculated working-class white voters, according to an election analyst who asked not to be named, despite not downplaying Clinton's widespread opposition.

"They were completely wrong, and they paid the price," the analyst told AFP.

Mrs. Clinton announced her defeat to Mr. Trump on the evening of November 9. Photo: Reuters.

Sabato said he felt embarrassed after the night of November 8 when "literally hundreds of polls were wrong." However, he also insisted that polls are necessary to maintain.

"Analysis based on 'hearsay' is not a professional way of doing things. You don't just rely on intuition, you have to rely on data."

“There will be one or more research groups that come up with a way to do it effectively,” he said.

According to Zing.vn