CO2 increases, not decreases, in direct proportion to GDP
The UK's Climate Change Journal published on October 8 a study by scientists from the University of Oregon (USA) showing that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the main cause of the greenhouse effect that causes global warming, increase proportionally with economic growth but do not decrease proportionally with economic recession.
The UK's Climate Change Journal published on October 8 a study by scientists from the University of Oregon (USA) showing that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the main cause of the greenhouse effect that causes global warming, increase proportionally with economic growth but do not decrease proportionally with economic recession.
By examining World Bank statistics for more than 150 countries from 1960-2008, scientists discovered that CO2 increased by an average of 0.73% for every 1% increase in gross domestic product (GDP), while the rate of CO2 decline was only 0.43% for every 1% decrease in GDP.
Exhaust fumes are seen from a car stopped at a traffic light in Jakarta, Indonesia. (Source: Reuters)
Richard York of the University of Oregon said that economic recessions do not lead to as large a drop in CO2 as economic growth does in the atmosphere.
The reason for this difference, he said, is that new infrastructure built during boom times continues to operate during recessions. For example, when the economy is in recession, factories do not immediately close, people still drive on the roads, and many new buildings still use heating or cooling systems.
Even after 1990, when many developed countries began to curb greenhouse gas emissions under UN regulations, they fell less during economic downturns than they did during economic booms, Mr York noted. He warned that economists should rethink how they forecast CO2 growth, rather than following the current model of GDP and emissions rising and falling in lockstep.
The United Nations Climate Change Commission says greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the Earth's surface temperature, causing more frequent floods, droughts, heat waves, sandstorms and rising sea levels.
According to the committee's calculations, the world economy will increase from 21,000 billion in 1990 to about 235-550,000 billion in 2100, meaning the Earth's temperature will increase by about 1.1-6.4 degrees Celsius during the same period.
About 200 countries around the world are aiming to reach a new global treaty on combating climate change by 2015 so that the document can take effect from 2020. However, world leaders still failed in this effort at the United Nations Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, in 2009./.
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