No breakthrough in China-US relations

(Baonghean) - From September 22 to September 25, Chinese President Xi Jinping made his first official high-level visit to the United States. There have been many articles about this event, discussing the purpose and results of the trip with conflicting opinions. Let's take a look back at the whole picture of this famous visit.

Background

Since 1979, a total of four senior Chinese leaders have visited and worked officially in the United States. They were Mr. Deng Xiaoping with his trip in January 1979 as Vice Premier, Mr. Jiang Zemin visited the United States in 1997 as President, Mr. Hu Jintao in 2010 as President, and most recently, President Xi Jinping.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama at the White House on the morning of September 25. Photo: Reuters

Of the four visits by Chinese leaders to the US mentioned above, only Deng Xiaoping's visit took place in the context of relatively close and favorable relations between the two countries. This was also the time when the conflict between countries in the socialist and capitalist systems was at its peak and China advocated associating with the capitalist bloc. However, both visits by the two Chinese leaders later took place in a tense atmosphere, and at times European and American public opinion even demanded to sever diplomatic and economic relations with China. Since 2010, the East Sea issue has emerged in China-US relations after China made a series of moves that were condemned by regional and international public opinion.

Xi Jinping's visit to the US (September 22-25) also took place in an unfavorable context. The US public and politicians are hostile to China because of issues such as: China establishing an air defense identification zone in the East China Sea, encroaching and renovating submerged islands in the East Sea, directly threatening the interests of the US and allied countries, Chinese hackers attacking US networks to steal exclusive technology, military secrets and personal information of US officials and employees, devaluing the Yuan in the first half of August 2015 to compete unfairly, causing economic damage to countries, including the US.

Against such a bleak backdrop, history repeated itself when Xi Jinping did not go directly to Washington, DC, but took a “detour.” Xi Jinping’s first destination was Seattle (September 22-24), just as Jiang Zemin had chosen Virginia, followed by New York and finally Washington, DC. The reason for this was that the Chinese leadership did not want to immediately face the “wall” of indifference from American politicians, but gradually approached the US through economic, social and media channels.

In Seattle, Xi held more than a dozen meetings and attended roundtables with top business executives chaired by US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. He repeatedly stressed that Sino-US economic cooperation brings huge benefits to both sides, and to prove it, the Chinese President opened his wallet to spend $38 billion to buy 300 Boeing aircraft and invited Boeing to build an aircraft assembly plant in China.

As a result, several major US newspapers reported on the above moves and promoted the promotion of US-China cooperation, somewhat lightening the heavy atmosphere before Mr. Xi's visit to the White House. Of course, the media effect was probably not as expected by Chinese officials when Mr. Xi's visit coincided with that of Pope Francis - attracting the attention of the people and having a certain influence on US politicians, because the Pope is the one who played an extremely important role and contributed to the normalization of US-Cuba relations.

Purpose and results

Although not made public, the main goal that China set during President Xi Jinping's visit to the US this time is not difficult to see. That is to convince the US political community, directly the Obama administration, to accept the commitment to build a new type of great power relationship with China in the next 5, 10, 15 years with 3 pillars: 1. No confrontation; 2. No infringement on each other's core interests and internal affairs; 3. Win-win cooperation.

In June 2013, at an informal meeting with President B. Obama at the Sunnylands ranch in California, Mr. Xi Jinping suggested that China and the US “need to work together to build a new model of major power relations, based on respect and cooperation for the benefit of the Chinese, the Americans and the people of the world”. In response to this suggestion, President B. Obama did not express any attitude or opinion.

Since then, Chinese officials have taken every opportunity to raise the issue with US officials. At the APEC Summit in November 2014 in Beijing, Xi Jinping continued to make the proposal to President B. Obama. All of these proposals have not received a response from the US.

China still has not given up on that intention, as clearly seen by sending two high-ranking officials, Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Commission Meng Jianzhu (member of the Politburo Standing Committee) and State Councilor Yang Jiechi (a position below the Vice Premier but above the Minister in China) to the US in the first half of September to ease the conflicts and "pave the way" for Mr. Tap to smoothly carry out his "political mission".

Xi’s second major goal is to make a breakthrough in the negotiations on the “US-China Bilateral Investment Treaty” (BIT) and commit to a specific time frame for completing the negotiations. Started in 2008, this is the most important economic negotiation between China and the US today.

Did Mr. Xi achieve the big goals he set? There are many mixed opinions. Chinese media unanimously praised the complete success of this trip. Some major newspapers in Hong Kong and Macau gave modest assessments, while Taiwanese press said that this trip did not achieve its goals. Looking at the US-China joint statement on September 25 and through the press conference in Washington, American public opinion believes that the US-China relationship is still "Happy but forced; Who knows who, who is passionate about!"

Review and re-evaluate the agreement between Mr. Xi and President B. Obama: 1. US - China cooperate to ensure cyber security. 2. US - China cooperate to combat climate change. In fact, this agreement does not say anything. The biggest goals that China set out are considered failures. The Joint Statement does not mention the issue of the two sides committing to building a new type of major power relationship, and the Bilateral Investment Agreement (BIT) continues to be studied without a roadmap to conclude negotiations.

This result is predictable, because China has always avoided specific, verifiable commitments, instead offering general, vague concepts and terms. It is a word game, a political trick - a tactic to bind the opponent while China itself has actions that encroach on and violate the opponent's interests without fear of being "blown the whistle" or "penalized".

Moreover, the US has never accepted China as an equal in the international arena, and accepting a new type of great power relationship with China is contrary to that thinking. Therefore, in the context where the US is still superior in all aspects and has the ability to dominate the game, perhaps the US will never lose its composure and accept China's proposal, no matter how "eager" the Beijing government is!

What impact does it have on Vietnam?

Vietnam has diplomatic and economic relations with nearly 190 countries and territories, of which the most important are the Vietnam-China and Vietnam-US relations. Any ups and downs in the China-US relationship affect Vietnam in both positive and negative directions.

However, the result of the Chinese President’s trip to the US this time is basically nothing to worry about, because all current US-China agreements are only temporary and situational. It can even be said that they are “playing” a game of stalling for time with each other, when both sides have goals and reasons not to turn against each other, but at the same time, separating them is an abyss of distrust, contradiction and antagonism.

“The best matchmaker is a common enemy”, currently the US and China do not have a clear common enemy, so their cooperative relationship cannot be said to be sustainable on the basis of opposing interests. In that context, the US needs Vietnam and China also needs Vietnam. This is beneficial for stabilizing Vietnam-China relations, while expanding and promoting Vietnam-US relations. With both of these factors, combined with expanding and tightening relations with other countries and international entities, Vietnam can maintain a balanced and stable position in the international and regional arenas that are experiencing many fluctuations.

Associate Professor, Dr. Major General

Le Van Cuong

(Former Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies, Ministry of Public Security)