What scenario after the results of the Korean presidential election?

Amid rising tensions between North Korea and the United States, Japan and China, South Korea is holding a snap presidential election.

South Korea's presidential election is being held seven months early, after former President Park Geun-hye was impeached in a corruption scandal that is still ongoing, with some of South Korea's biggest conglomerates - including Samsung and Lotte - under investigation.

But scandal aside, the big concern now is who is likely to be elected president of South Korea and what his or her policies will be, especially in relations with North Korea, the United States and China?

Moon Jae-in: Candidate No. 1

Moon Jae-in is the leading candidate in this year's South Korean presidential election. According to opinion polls just before the vote, Moon Jae-in could receive 40% of the votes, 20 percentage points ahead of his nearest rival.

Mr. Moon Jae-in is the number one candidate in this Korean presidential election. Photo: CFP Photo

Mr. Moon Jae-in is considered a "liberal" or "progressive" candidate.

Ahn Cheol-soo: High-tech tycoon

Another important candidate is Ahn Cheol-soo, a businessman and runner-up in polls ahead of South Korea's presidential election.

“Ahn Cheol-soo, a high-tech tycoon who developed a computer anti-virus program, is a tech tycoon turned politician. But he has started to look like a traditional candidate, as conservatives have piled on his support, hoping to avoid a Moon Jae-in victory,” said analyst Mr. Volodzko.

Conservative voters in South Korea are flocking to Ahn Cheol-soo, but to foreigners his policies seem quite socialist.

Ahn Cheol-soo's policies seem to lean towards socialism. Photo: CFP

“Ahn Cheol-soo supports raising taxes on profits, criticizing free trade agreements and supporting public welfare. In terms of economic policy, he wants to help startups and plans to introduce various stimulus packages to help small businesses,” Volodzko said.

It may seem odd that conservative parties are rallying around a presidential candidate like Ahn Cheol-soo who wants to raise taxes, renegotiate free trade agreements and increase welfare, but it is mainly due to opposition to the foreign policy of No. 1 candidate Moon Jae-in, Volodzko said.

"Everything leads me to believe that Moon Jae-in will probably engage with North Korea and at least help ease tensions. He also seems like one of the candidates who is likely to engage actively with China," Volodzko said.

Implications for regional security

Reducing tensions in the region seems like a good idea, as tensions on the Korean Peninsula are currently at a high, threatening to erupt into war.

But according to Asia security expert Zack Cooper of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC, that does not fit with the current plan of the Donald Trump administration.

The Trump administration wants to keep up the pressure until North Korea is willing to come to the table and negotiate on Washington’s terms. But if Moon Jae-in moves ahead with bilateral talks with the North Korean leader too soon, the Trump administration’s plan could fail.

Ahead of the South Korean presidential election, Moon Jae-in has strongly opposed the THAAD ballistic missile defense system that the US is deploying in South Korea. Moon Jae-in even said that he would suspend the THAAD deployment in South Korea if he were elected president.

But according to the US military, the THAAD system has been put into operation in South Korea.

Mr. Cooper said it was no coincidence that the US put the THAAD system into operation just days before the South Korean presidential election. He commented: "I think this was a very carefully calculated plan between the US and the previous South Korean government."

Analysts Cooper and Volodzko both said that it would be difficult for Moon Jae-in to reverse the THAAD missile defense system once it is operational in South Korea.

According to Kienthuc.net.vn