Scenario of Russia using nuclear weapons and the worries of Ukrainians

The line between tactical and strategic nuclear is quite blurred.

Vitaly Fedchenko is a renowned expert on nuclear weapons. He is currently a senior research fellow in the Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sweden).

Nuclear bombing. Photo: Arknews

In response to the Russian leadership’s statements about the use of nuclear weapons only at the tactical level, Mr. Fedchenko said that a nuclear explosion is still a nuclear explosion. The expert said that there is “no clear definition or consensus on the difference between tactics and strategy.”

According to Fedchenko and other experts, Russian President Putin has three options for using his nuclear arsenal (of about 6,000 weapons) on the battlefield in Ukraine. One is to detonate at a very high position, creating an electromagnetic pulse that would damage all electronic systems in Ukraine and Europe. Two is to detonate at a moderate altitude, killing tens of thousands of people but not affecting neighboring countries. Three is to detonate nuclear weapons on the ground, with radioactive dust being spread everywhere by the wind.

Expert Fedchenko added that this does not take into account the possibility that Russia could use conventional weapons to destroy Ukraine's nuclear reactors, turning them into a dead zone.

During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union were on the brink of nuclear war when the Cuban Missile Crisis lasted 13 days in 1961. The confrontation that year resembled a calculated chess game. The current nuclear confrontation in Ukraine resembles a game show in which the opponents loudly and horribly shout to destroy each other.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned President Putin of the “most serious consequences” if Russia uses nuclear weapons.

But Russia did not appear to be deterred by Western warnings. Former Russian President Medvedev, current Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, strongly warned: “Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons, can be used.”

Another close ally of Mr Putin, the Chechen regional leader Ramzan Kadyrov, recently urged his leader to activate nuclear weapons. “It is necessary to take more drastic measures, to impose martial law on the border and use low-yield nuclear weapons,” Mr Kadyrov said.

Meanwhile, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has countered Russia and threatened that “if Russia crosses the line, they will face serious consequences.”

Little testing so unpredictable destructive power in the field

No one has doubted the destructive power of nuclear weapons since the US dropped two nuclear bombs on two Japanese cities in 1945, killing tens of thousands of people instantly or slowly later due to radiation exposure…

Nuclear weapons expert Fedchenko further explained: “The energy of nuclear explosions is essentially the same. The difference is in the scale, the ability to withstand external shocks and the convenience of launching or dropping nuclear weapons.”

According to Fedchenko, the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty limited the assessment capabilities of both Russia and the United States.

“There are new fundamental designs, but without a lot of real-world testing, you don’t know whether the nuclear weapons actually work as you want them to,” Fedchenko said. “The nuclear arsenal is still based on systems developed in the late 1980s or earlier.”

Olena Pavlenko, an energy policy analyst at the Dixi Group think tank in Kiev, said the United Nations had done little to deter Russia’s nuclear threat to Ukraine. She said Ukrainians were genuinely wary of Russia using actual nuclear weapons, although psychologically they might not fear a nuclear attack.

Pavlenko said Ukrainians really want to know whether Putin will launch nuclear weapons. They understand the Russian psyche, she said. “If Russia talks a lot about something, they won’t do it. But if they stay silent, that’s when we need to worry.”