La Nina is about to begin, Central region will have heavy rain and floods in the last months of the year

Expert Nguyen Van Huong - Head of Weather Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has just analyzed and commented on the possibility of rain in August and the last months of the year.

Accordingly, August is the main rainy season in the Northern region and the rain from July 28 to now may last until around August 3-4.

During this period, rain is mainly concentrated in the Northwest and Viet Bac regions, and locally there are still areas with heavy to very heavy rain. From August 5, heavy rain tends to decrease; from August 6-7 onwards, rain continues to decrease and becomes sunny.

From August 8-11, the northern provinces are likely to experience a heat wave.

“We believe that if it rains in August, the heat wave will end after August 11,” said Mr. Huong.

According to expert Nguyen Van Huong, from the second half of August and September onwards, the La Nina phenomenon will begin to take effect. Therefore, rainfall in September in the North may be higher than the average of many years.

Notably, since September, La Nina has had an impact that coincides with the time of storms and floods in the Central region. With this influence, storms and floods in the Central region are likely to occur in succession during the second half of September and October-November this year.

Mr. Huong added that, according to the rule, in years when La Nina appears, the impact of this phenomenon often causes higher rainfall than the average of many years; the number of storms and tropical depressions is also higher than the average of many years.

In fact, in the North, since the beginning of the rainy season, the total rainfall has been 30-80% higher than the average of many years, in some places it has been 80-100% higher. Especially in Bac Quang (Ha Giang) and Quang Ha (Quang Ninh), the rainfall in June alone has reached 1,105-1,271mm, twice as high as the same period last year.

The Department of Dyke Management and Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, said that according to incomplete statistics, floods in the North in the past week have killed 9 people; 63 houses had to be urgently evacuated, and nearly 600 houses were flooded and affected.

At the same time, the floods also caused nearly 2,500 hectares of rice and crops to be inundated; 33.2 hectares of aquaculture area were damaged. Regarding traffic, nearly 300 landslides and traffic jams were recorded...

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in August, total rainfall in the Northern region was approximately equal to the average of many years in the same period (5-10% higher); in the Central region it was 15-30% lower; in the Central Highlands and the South, rainfall was approximately equal to the average of many years in the same period (5-10% lower).

In addition, during the forecast period, the Northern, Central Highlands and Southern regions will have many rainy days, including the possibility of some widespread moderate and heavy rains. Thunderstorms in these areas may be accompanied by tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts of wind.

During the same forecast period, storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea are likely to be less than the average of many years during the same period (average: 2-3 storms).

The heat wave in August is forecast to continue in the Northern and Central regions, but the intensity will not be too severe. The average temperature across the country will generally be 0.5-1 degree higher than the average of many years in the same period.

According to meteorological experts, this year, due to the appearance of La Nina, the rainy and stormy season is likely to be complicated and unpredictable. It is especially important to note that storms that have a strong impact on our country often occur at the end of the year.