Discussing Vietnam - China relations again (last article)

(Baonghean) - On the occasion of the 69th anniversary of the August Revolution (August 19, 1945 - 2014), discussing Vietnam - China relations is necessary and has topical significance.

Continued from previous issue:

Many countries have voiced their support for Vietnam and protested China’s reckless actions that seriously violate international law. (In photo: Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung meets with Philippine President Benigno Aquino on May 21, 2014).

3. China, who are they?

In 65 years (since 1950), China has conducted 4 wars of aggression against Vietnam with live fire weapons (1956, 1974, 1979, 1988) and one legal invasion of Vietnam (2012).

How can China’s invasion of Vietnam be explained? Based on the behavior of the Chinese authorities, internationally renowned scholars from Japan, the United States and the EU have made valid opinions:

“After abandoning Communism, the Communist Party (of China) used nationalism as the glue that held China together… And as China progressed economically, Chinese nationalism only grew stronger” (3).

“One of Deng's main legacies was his determination to lead the country to capitalism” (4) and “more precisely, “CPP” (Chinese Communist Party) means the Chinese Capitalist Party” (5). More than ten years ago, the Germans commented: “China has long since returned to capitalism” (6).

While wearing the "communist" coat, the Chinese rulers practice great power chauvinism towards Vietnam in particular and towards countries in the world in general.

4. Why does China want to monopolize the East Sea?

There have been hundreds, even tens of thousands of articles and research works by Vietnamese scholars and scholars from other countries written on this issue.

Most articles and research works claim that: in defiance of international law and trampling on elementary principles in international relations, China is using every means to monopolize the East Sea to exploit oil and gas to meet the demands of its giant energy-hungry economy.

That is only partly true.

The oil and gas reserves in the East Sea are not as large as many people think. World geologists believe that the East Sea only has about 30 billion barrels of oil reserves. If so, it is small, even very small compared to the Middle East - North Africa (dozens of times larger). China has a need to exploit oil and gas in the East Sea to serve its economy. But if it were only for oil and gas, perhaps they would not be so aggressive, belligerent and reckless.

The problem lies in the particularly important geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic position of the East Sea.

And it must start with China's global ambitions.

Steven Mosher, a famous American expert on China, has an opinion that is widely shared by public opinion:

“Zhongnanhai's ambition is huge and Beijing does not give up any plot to move towards the goal of gaining the position of the highest power in the world” (7).

“Terrorists are not capable of upsetting the world order. China's ambitions are serious and destructive to the world order” (8).

China's goal is to become the world's dominant superpower. Every superpower that has ever dominated the world has existed for only a short time and then declined. For more than half a century, five generations of Chinese leaders have always harbored the ambition that after the US (post-US), it would be China's turn to play the role of "Son of Heaven". All directions of China's development have been blocked: to the North, it is blocked by Russia; to the Northeast (China's front) it is blocked by the US-Japan-Korea alliance; to the Southwest, it is blocked by India; the East Sea is the only path for China to advance to the Pacific and Indian Oceans, expanding to the world.

Furthermore, monopolizing the East Sea to push the US out of the Western Pacific, controlling Japan, South Korea and ASEAN countries.

This is the real reason, the main driving force that pushes China to monopolize the East Sea by all means. Without monopolizing the East Sea, it will not be able to realize the “Chinese Dream” - the dream of hegemony and world domination.

5. National sovereignty and territorial integrity are paramount.

National sovereignty and territorial integrity are paramount.

That is known to everyone and there are few different opinions.

There are still many different opinions on how to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Fatherland. That is normal, the more different and even opposing opinions there are, the more likely it is that the optimal solution will be chosen. The Party and the State need to organize a campaign to mobilize the entire population to contribute strategies to protect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Fatherland in the context of globalization and international integration.

The issues raised below belong to the group of basic solutions to protect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the fatherland.

5.1. On perception.

There are three issues that require coherent, correct, and unified awareness within the Party, State, and people:

- Firstly, besides a giant neighbor like China, Vietnam needs to understand: 1. Who is China? (explained in section 3 above); 2. What does China want? - China's real plot and ambition towards the world in general, towards Vietnam in particular; 3. What methods and tricks will China use towards Vietnam?

Without a deep and correct understanding of the three issues mentioned above, Vietnam cannot deal with China, but will always be passive, weak in its response, and may even fall into the eight trigrams that China has actively set up.

These are serious and very difficult scientific issues, requiring the participation of research and consultation from dedicated researchers (Vietnamese in the country, Vietnamese living abroad and international friends). There should not be a situation where the truth belongs to superiors, while the logic belongs to subordinates and scientists!

- Second, we must know that: although China's ambition for hegemony is great, it is not as strong as people think.

China's total GDP is larger than Japan's and is the second largest in the world (after the US). That's the quantity, that's the scale. What about the quality of development?

In 1968, Japan's GDP surpassed Germany to become the second largest in the world (after the US) and at that time (1968), Japan's GDP per capita ranked 20th in the world with a series of famous businesses and companies around the world such as: Toyota, Sony, Honda, Parasonic...

In 2010, China's GDP surpassed Japan's, rising to second place in the world (after the US), but China's GDP per capita (2010) only ranked 124th in the world (only 3,600 USD/person) (9), up to now, China has not had a single enterprise, a single company, or a single product with a brand that the world knows (except for the HD-981 drilling rig!).

China has the most millionaires and billionaires in the world, while the income of the rest of its 1.3 billion people is among the lowest in the world. The wealth gap and inequality in national wealth in China are among the largest in the world.

Of the 20 most polluted cities on the planet, 15 are in China.

China is facing an aging population: not rich yet old (Japan falls into the aging population syndrome when GDP per capita is over 35,000 USD).

Therefore, if we only consider the world's second-largest GDP, it is not that formidable, and after all, China has only just recovered the position it had won hundreds of years ago: In early 1820, China's GDP was equal to 1/3 of the world's total GDP, taking the top spot in the world. In 1870, China's GDP still accounted for 17% of the world's total GDP and fell to second place in the world (10).

In general, in terms of the quality of socio-economic development, will China catch up with Japan in 50 years? Few people dare to confirm.

In terms of defense potential, China is still far behind the US. From now until 2020 - 2025, China's military confrontation with the US is suicidal. It will only bully small, weak countries in the region.

All the above information says: China is big but not as strong as people think, and they do not have the ability to do whatever they want, more importantly there is nothing to fear from China.

Please note to readers: The 8 strategic decisive battles of the Vietnamese people against the Northern invaders: Bach Dang battle in 938, Nhu Nguyet battle in 1077, 3 victories over the Yuan-Mongol in 1258, 1285, 1288, Tot Dong - Chuc Dong battle in 1426, Chi Lang - Xuong Giang battle in 1427, Ngoc Hoi - Dong Da battle in 1789, Vietnam won under the condition that the Northern invaders were 10 to 20 times larger than Vietnam. Vietnam won because "Using great justice to defeat cruelty, using benevolence to replace violence". Historical lessons still have hot current significance.

- Third, Vietnam has three strengths that China will never have: 1. Law; 2. Morality and 3. Support from the international community.

Vietnam must know how to exploit these three factors to create national strength.

5.2. To protect independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, Vietnam must be strong.

If we want the country to be strong, the Party must be strong. The fighting strength of the Party is the strength of the country. If the Party is not strong, the country will never be strong.

If we want the Party to be strong, the Politburo and the Central Executive Committee must be strong. How can the Central Executive Committee and the Politburo be strong? This is beyond the writer's ability.

On the occasion of the 69th anniversary of the August Revolution (August 19, 1945 - 2014), discussing the Vietnam - China relationship is necessary and has current significance. In short, there are two basic reasons leading to the August Revolution of 1945: 1. The Party and the people clearly recognized the enemy (French colonialists) and 2. The Party is closely connected with the people. Now it is more difficult: the invader of Vietnam's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity is hiding its face. But no force, no difficulty can hinder the development of the Vietnamese people - a nation (the only one in the world) that was not destroyed by a thousand years of Chinese domination, but instead developed more and more powerfully.

Major General Le Van Cuong

(Former Director of the Institute for Strategic and Scientific Studies - Ministry of Public Security)

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3.Fareed Zakaria: Newsweek Magazine, July 2005.

4.5. Foreign Affairs Magazine, October 9, 2005

6. Newspaper "Phanphuoc Panorama" No. 26/8/2002.

7.8. VNA: TTKTG August 2, 2007.

9. VNA: TTKTG August 3, 2010, BBC night August 1, 2010.

10. VNA: TTKTG August 31, 2010 quoted Singapore's "Morning Alliance" late August 2010.