Will a Russia-China-India strategic axis be formed?

(Baonghean) - The recent Russia-China-India Foreign Ministers' Conference, although not a superficial event, has attracted special public attention due to its strategic influence. From the results of the conference, including Russia and China's support for India's entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), public opinion is speculating about the possibility of forming a Russia-China-India strategic axis based on the strategic triangle that was formed 10 years ago. Will this calculation come true?

From left: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj in Beijing on February 2. Photo: Reuters

Russia - China - India want to increase their voice in the region and the world

Looking at the overall joint statement issued after the meeting of the three foreign ministers of Russia, China and India, it can be seen that the three countries want to develop extensive relations in many aspects. However, it is worth noting that most of the content of the joint statement mentioned the commitment to cooperation between the three countries on regional and international issues such as the commitment to strengthen and coordinate cooperation to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region or the call for "developing an open, comprehensive, transparent security mechanism and cooperation mechanism in the region". The joint statement also assessed "the special importance of cooperation between the three countries within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), considering it one of the key tools to promote multilateral cooperation in politics, economics, security and humanitarian activities in the region". Through these contents, it can be seen that through the joint cooperation mechanism, Russia - China and India not only want to promote the development of the three countries, but also use this mechanism to increase the voices of the three countries in common regional and world issues.

Looking forward to a closer relationship

Since 2005, Russia, China and India have started to hold a Joint Foreign Ministers' Conference, but so far, this cooperation mechanism has not really had much influence. Russia, China and India also cooperate within the framework of the Group of Emerging Economies (BRIC), however, in this mechanism, the countries focus more on cooperation in the economic field, while politics seems to be left open. Therefore, world public opinion believes that the recent Conference shows that Russia, China and India want the international community to acknowledge the geopolitical reality of the Russia-China-India strategic triangle and want to push this cooperation mechanism to a new level, possibly even becoming a Russia-China-India axis as some international newspapers mentioned. As the three largest and most powerful countries in Asia and among the top in the world, a closer connection between these three countries will certainly create a major change in the political atmosphere not only in the region but also globally. If formed, this axis could pose a formidable counterweight to the United States and the European Union.

Will a Russia-China-India strategic axis be formed?

It is not difficult to see that Russia and China have many reasons to promote this. In the context of being isolated and embargoed by the West, Russia is trying to expand cooperation towards the East, to open up opportunities for economic cooperation, while strengthening its political position and voice in the region and the world. On the Chinese side, it is clear that cooperation with Russia and India will increase China's prestige, and thus its influence. However, with India, it is not the same. Unlike Russia and China, India has a very good relationship with the US. There is also no major conflict between India and the US like there is between the US and Russia and China. Therefore, it can be said that whether the Russia-China-India axis is formed or not depends a lot on India. India knows that if it tightens relations with Russia and China, it will certainly affect its relations with the US and vice versa. Thus, it can be seen immediately that the Russia-China-India axis is putting India in a difficult position, when it has to balance relations between the US on one side and Russia and China on the other. This could be a major obstacle that makes it difficult for India to enthusiastically participate in building closer relations with Russia and China in a new axis of relations.

The second reason is that, strategically, the Russia-China-India axis is also unlikely to be formed because, in addition to the short-term goal of helping Russia and China counterbalance the US and strengthen the voices of the three countries in the international arena, all three countries have great suspicions about each other. Although Russia and China claim to be natural partners, the most important partners of each other, in reality, Russia is always wary that China's strong development could threaten Russia's position, especially in the Far East. Russia and China are also quietly competing for influence in Central Asia - a place that was once considered Russia's territory, but this country is gradually losing influence. China and India have had a border dispute that has lasted for many years and has recently become tense. Because of these barriers, it can be seen that the Russia-China-India relationship is unlikely to become close. Any form of relationship between these three countries will be more formal and short-term than substantive.

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