Worried about not achieving export targets

Exports in the first 9 months of 2016 are estimated at 128.6 billion USD, much lower than the target set for the whole year of 180 billion USD. If we want to complete the export task, in the next 3 months, we must export over 17.2 billion USD each month, but this figure is almost impossible because in September, exports only reached 15 billion USD and the highest month since the beginning of the year (August 2016) also only reached 15.2 billion USD.

Many key products are facing difficulties.

Exports in the first 9 months of 2016 are estimated at 128.6 billion USD, up 6.7% over the same period in 2015. It is worth noting that this increase is lower than the increase in the same period last year, which increased by 9.6% in the first 9 months of 2015, and the possibility of achieving the export target for the whole year of 2016 will face many difficulties and challenges.

Assessing the export situation in the past 9 months, the General Statistics Office said that, besides the commodity groups with increased export turnover such as vegetables and fruits up 31.6%, precious stones and metals up 64.5%, machinery, equipment and spare parts up 23%, the export turnover of key commodity groups such as agricultural products and fuel and mineral groups continued to have a decrease in price as well as export volume. Specifically, rice decreased by 16.3% in volume and 14.4% in value; cassava and cassava products decreased by 11.4% in volume and 24.8% in value; crude oil decreased by 25% in volume and 43.3% in value... significantly reducing the overall growth rate of exports.

The processing industry, which accounts for about 40% of the country's total export structure, has not been able to maintain a high growth rate like in previous years and cannot "carry" the decline of the mining industry, in which the focus is oil and gas. Not to mention, since the second quarter, the textile and garment industry has faced many difficulties due to the stagnation of export orders and has begun to decline since the third quarter. Textile and garment exports in the first 9 months reached 17.9 billion USD, up only 5.9% compared to the same period in 2015 due to reduced competitiveness compared to many competitors. Mr. Vu Duc Giang, Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, said: Competitors of Vietnamese textile and garment such as Cambodia, Myanmar, Bangladesh... enjoy preferential import tax on textiles and garments to the US at 0% while Vietnam still has to pay tax of 17%. Not only that, labor costs in these countries are also lower than in Vietnam, causing customers to shift orders to those partners. The policy of stabilizing the exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong compared to some other foreign currencies also makes Vietnamese textiles more expensive and less competitive compared to other countries.

Exports of some processed and manufactured industrial products still increased compared to the same period last year, but the growth rate has slowed down. In the first 9 months, the production of phones and components increased by only 8.6% and electronic products increased by only 11.37% compared to the same period last year because these product groups were close to their designed capacity.

Acceleration is not easy

Some economic experts believe that the reason for Vietnam's low export growth is that Vietnam's exports are mainly processing, assembling, and raw exports, so the added value is not high. In particular, due to the slow development of supporting industries and the large import rate of raw materials, Vietnam often faces disadvantages when world prices fluctuate, increasing domestic production costs and reducing the competitiveness of goods. On the other hand, the world market is experiencing many uncertainties, leading to a decrease in import demand from countries. Many countries have even increased the application of technical barriers to imported goods, especially for agricultural, forestry, and fishery products... Not only that, competitors with similar supply sources such as Thailand, India... are also increasing competition with Vietnamese goods, making exports increasingly difficult.

To overcome the above situation, experts said that, in the immediate future, it is necessary to continue supporting solutions for agricultural, forestry and fishery products exported to the US and European markets, while at the same time, focusing on improving the quality of food hygiene and safety. For export products that are showing a tendency to stagnate and decrease such as textiles, footwear, etc., it is necessary to promote cooperation, connection, and minimize unnecessary costs. Along with that, domestic enterprises must also strengthen links with import enterprises in other countries to create value chains to sign stable, long-term contracts. According to Mr. Vu Duc Giang, enterprises themselves must proactively seek ways to increase competitiveness by increasing productivity, innovating technology, etc. In addition, the State needs to support enterprises through administrative procedure reform, for example, amending inappropriate regulations on specialized management, for example, in the textile industry, abolishing Circular 37 on formaldehyde content testing, etc.

Time is running out, while the Ministry of Industry and Trade also assessed that export growth is struggling and it is difficult to achieve the target set by the National Assembly of 10%. Therefore, to strive for the highest export growth, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Thang Hai said that he will focus on reviewing regulations related to import-export procedures as well as promoting administrative procedure reform, issuing policies to promote production thereby increasing export value. "In particular, it is necessary to strengthen market solutions, promote trade promotion to open up export markets, issue many documents on guiding opportunities and challenges from free trade agreements, strengthen market forecasting to effectively support businesses...", Deputy Minister Do Thang Hai emphasized.

Thu Huong/baotintuc