Missed 5.5% GDP growth target?
Given the developments in the world economy and domestic circumstances, many economic experts believe that the 5.5% GDP growth target for this year may not be achieved and will have to be achieved in 2014.
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According to the forecast of BIDV Research Center, this year could be the third consecutive year of economic growth below 6%, GDP at 5.1-5.3%. Economic expert Can Van Luc commented that GDP growth this year is forecast to be low, equivalent to 2009, around 5.2-5.3%. Analyzing more specifically, this expert pointed out that the growth driver this year is not due to domestic investment but is still basically due to export, disbursement of FDI, ODA investment and partly from aggregate demand.
According to the World Economic Forum, Vietnam has increased 5 ranks in the global competitiveness rankings in 2013. This is a positive signal creating momentum for the improvement of the macro economy next year, however, Vietnam still has some limitations in competitiveness that need to be resolved. In 2014, the world economy is forecast to recover more strongly with the potential growth of about 3.2% compared to the expected level of about 2.6% this year. Economic experts have given scenarios for Vietnam's economy in 2014 with the following assumptions: Total social investment is about 30% of GDP, export growth is 15% and demand increases more strongly, then GDP can reach about 5.5%.
Economist - Can Van Luc: The bright spot of Vietnam's economy in 2014 is that the TPP negotiations may be concluded in 2013. This event will create great advantages in investment, trade and services for businesses and the entire economy. |
BIDV Research Center has given its opinion: If the growth drivers of the economy continue to weaken and the innovation of the growth model is not promoted, the growth prospects of 2014 will not be optimistic. Therefore, in order to increase GDP at about 5.5% in 2014, along with continuing to firmly maintain the policy of stabilizing the macro economy and controlling inflation, it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of 3 breakthroughs: institutions, support policies and human resources. In addition, according to economic expert Can Van Luc, the solution for economic growth in 2014 needs to continue to support the market and enterprises; carry out comprehensive solutions and accelerate the progress of handling bad debts; and soon allow an increase in foreign investor room in the financial-banking sector. In particular, "urgently orient and support enterprises in integrating into the TPP and AEC bloc" - Mr. Luc emphasized.
According to haiquanonline-PH
