Why Ukraine's counterattack is difficult to defeat the Russian army

M1 Abrams tank (made in the US) fires a cannon. Ukraine is looking forward to this weapon from the West. Photo: US Army

Ukraine is facing a very complicated reality. Senior leaders from the United States, Britain and the European Union (EU) have expressed strong support for Ukraine and its expected counter-offensive in the past few days. However, if we analyze these statements carefully, we see that the West is increasingly aware that the probability of the Ukrainian army pushing the Russians out of all the areas they have just captured is very low.

Therefore, scholars say the West urgently needs to change its policy before Ukraine suffers further losses in combat and still cannot change the fact that this conflict is likely to end through negotiations.

What is noteworthy in the US statement?

Over the past few days, a group of senior Western leaders have issued strong statements in support of Ukraine and its impending counter-offensive. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, British Foreign Secretary James Cleaverly and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have all issued strongly worded statements expressing support for Ukraine. The question, however, is whether the West will follow through.

Evidence is mounting that the West in general, and the United States in particular, is unlikely to have the same level of critical weapons and ammunition available to Ukraine for the remainder of 2023 as it did during the first 14 months of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On May 9, 2023, the United States announced additional military support for Ukraine, this time in the form of a $1.2 billion aid package.

It is worth noting that this aid is not provided under the US President’s Withdrawal Powers but under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. The difference between the two programs is huge and reflects the US attitude towards the reality of the Ukrainian battlefield.

Withdrawal powers mean that President Biden could order the immediate delivery of existing US weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. That means, in theory, they could be on the battlefield in Ukraine within weeks.

The Security Assistance Initiative, meanwhile, means that contracts must be written, published, and put through a bidding process, and then the winning defense companies must spend a significant amount of time, possibly several years, producing the weapons and ammunition they ordered. So, in this way, it will be at least 2024 before Ukraine can see the major benefits of the latest US support package.

Western-made artillery shells. Photo: New York Times

Britain and the EU are also well aware of the situation.

In an interview with Euronews on May 5, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell admitted: “If I stopped supporting Ukraine, the war would definitely end soon,” because Ukraine would be “unable to defend itself” and would “fall in just a few days.”

British Foreign Secretary Cleaverly said optimistically that since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the Ukrainian military has “performed better than expected.” However, Cleaverly concluded with sober caution: “We have to be realistic. This is the real world. This is not a Hollywood movie.” This is an accurate statement, and Western leaders should consider the implications.

It is understandable that the West opposes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and wants Ukraine to regain all the territories it once controlled. If Western leaders had written the script, that would certainly be how the film would end. But British Foreign Secretary Cleaverly has pointed out the truth: the West must base its policy on the most accurate, realistic and sober understanding of the facts on the ground and as little dependence as possible on subjective, emotional wishes.

Ukraine lacks the experience and resources to mount a large-scale counterattack.

There are a few points to consider here.

First, the task facing the Ukrainian army before launching a counteroffensive is enormous. Author Daniel Davis, who has experience in large-scale tank offensive operations, argues that defending is much easier than organizing a large-scale combined arms attack.

Ukraine has suffered heavy casualties in the first 14 months of the conflict. Today, Ukrainian soldiers and officers have limited combat experience and only superficial training in combined arms operations. Meanwhile, a large-scale counteroffensive requires close coordination of all units on a battlefield hundreds of kilometers wide. Ukrainian soldiers and generals have not yet undertaken a mission of this magnitude.

Second, Russia has been preparing extensive defensive positions for more than half a year, along the entire 1,000km front. According to some American analysts, the Russians have designed and built an impressive defensive belt that even well-trained Western armies would find difficult to penetrate.

President Zelensky’s military will have to attack this elaborate defense system with a limited air force, limited air defenses, scarce artillery ammunition, and an army equipped with both modern and aging armor, with a mix of conscripts with no combat experience and newly trained NATO officers.

Some Ukrainian leaders are aware of the difficulty of the challenge. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Washington Post last week that he was concerned the world “overestimates the expectations of our counteroffensive.” He feared that such high expectations would lead to “emotional disappointment.” Minister Reznikov warned that the success rate was only “10 kilometers.”

Post-counterattack scenario

Mr. Reznikov did not mention the more serious thing that would happen next.

Even if Ukraine exceeds Western expectations and gains 50-100km of territory, the casualties it will suffer will be high in all scenarios, leaving the Ukrainian army weaker than it is today. As mentioned above, it is highly unlikely that the West will be able to replace the Ukrainian army’s worn-out equipment and provide it with enough ammunition to sustain its operations for the rest of this year (2023). Meanwhile, according to the Washington Post, in addition to the 300,000 troops currently stationed in Ukraine, Russia has another 200,000 troops that could cross the border into Ukraine at any time.

In addition, once Ukraine launches a counter-offensive, whether successful or not, Russia will almost certainly launch its own counter-offensive in response. At that time, Ukraine will be in a tense position to withstand such a counter-offensive, possibly for months, while they are short of artillery, missiles and even soldiers.

Thus, the chances of Ukraine retaking all the territory it once controlled are very low. The likely outcome is that the conflict will continue despite the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive. But over time, the odds will tilt in Russia’s favor. Ultimately, Ukraine will have to find a negotiated solution to the conflict.

If the West recognizes this reality and supports negotiations now, Ukraine will be less likely to suffer an unfavorable deal in the future./.