Reasons why the Ukrainian crisis is unlikely to escalate into nuclear war.
If war were to break out between two countries or organizations possessing nuclear weapons, the destructive power itself would act as a shield.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that if Russia joins NATO,UkraineIt is possible to use force to retake Crimea, which could then push Russia andNATOinto military conflict. An attack on any NATO member means an attack on the entire bloc, and the alliance will act collectively in response to the attacking nation.
According to CNN-NEWS12, President Putin has clearly reminded countries of a potential war situation with Russia – the country with the world's largest number of nuclear warheads.
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| A picture of a Russian military exercise at the Kapustin Yar training ground in 2020. Photo: AP |
But could an attack occur that would completely wipe out human civilization and plunge the Earth into an eternal nuclear winter?
According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) Nuclear Handbook, Russia has a stockpile of 4,497 nuclear warheads, with 1,760 awaiting dismantling as of January 2021. NATO also has its own nuclear arsenal, primarily from the United States, which possesses 3,800 nuclear warheads, with 1,750 retired and awaiting disarmament. The US currently deploys approximately 1,800 warheads.
According to the FAS's Status of World Nuclear Forces, the other two NATO countries, France and the United Kingdom, possess 290 and 225 weapons respectively.
In the event that Ukraine joins NATO and NATO-Russia conflict erupts, could a nuclear war occur? According to experts, this is unlikely to happen.
The only nuclear attack the world has witnessed to date was in Japan during World War II. Hiroshima was hit by an atomic bomb dropped by the United States on August 6, 1945, and Nagasaki was attacked on August 9, 1945. These two explosions caused horrific destruction and casualties, forcing Japan to surrender unconditionally.
What happened immediately after the two explosions was just the beginning of a chain of future disasters, including radiation exposure and long-term health effects on the survivors. They suffered from various terrible diseases such as cancer, brain atrophy, mental disorders, or developmental delays.
Today, nuclear arsenals around the world contain even more powerful bombs. The FAS estimates that the nine countries currently possessing nuclear weapons have a combined total of 13,150 such weapons. Of these, 3,650 warheads have been deployed at missile or bomber bases, with 2,000 warheads on high alert.
In 1945, Japan had no nuclear shield. In 2022, if a war-like situation were to occur between two countries or groups possessing nuclear weapons, and if those nuclear weapons were used simultaneously, the near-total destructive power would itself act as a shield. Therefore, the risk of nuclear war is very small.
However, the world could witness a limited military offensive in the future if negotiations on the Ukrainian crisis fail. In that case, Ukraine could see yet another battlefield open up beyond the eastern region, where pro-Russian groups are demanding secession.
Therefore, if the Ukrainian crisis escalates into war, it will only be at a limited level, not a nuclear war between two sides possessing nuclear weapons.
