Why the Ukraine crisis is unlikely to escalate into nuclear war

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that if he joins NATO,Ukrainecould use force to retake Crimea, thereby pushing Russia andNATOinto military conflict. An attack on any NATO member means an attack on all, and the alliance will act collectively to respond to the attacker.

According to CNN-NEWS12, President Putin clearly reminded countries of a war situation with Russia - the country with the largest number of nuclear warheads in the world.

But could there be an attack that would completely eliminate human civilization and plunge the earth into a permanent dark nuclear winter?

According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) Nuclear Handbook, Russia has an inventory of 4,497 nuclear warheads, with 1,760 warheads awaiting dismantling, as of January 2021. NATO also has its own nuclear arsenal, mainly from the United States, which has 3,800 nuclear warheads, with 1,750 “retired” warheads awaiting dismantling. The United States has about 1,800 deployed warheads.

According to FAS's State of World Nuclear Forces, two other NATO countries, France and the UK, hold 290 and 225 weapons respectively.

In the event that Ukraine joins NATO and NATO-Russia falls into conflict, could a nuclear war occur? According to experts, this possibility is unlikely to become a reality.

The only nuclear attack the world has seen to date was on Japan during World War II. The city of Hiroshima was hit by an atomic bomb dropped by the United States on August 6, 1945, and the city of Nagasaki was attacked on August 9, 1945. The two explosions caused terrible destruction and casualties, forcing Japan to surrender unconditionally.

What happened immediately after the two explosions was the beginning of a chain of future disasters, including radiation exposure and long-term health effects on survivors, who suffered terrible diseases such as cancer, brain atrophy, mental illness or failure to develop normally.

Today, the world’s nuclear arsenals contain even more powerful bombs. The FAS estimates that the nine nuclear-weapon states have a total of 13,150 such weapons. Of these, 3,650 are deployed at missile or bomber bases, with 2,000 on high alert.

In 1945, Japan had no nuclear shield. In 2022, if a war-like situation were to occur between two countries or groups with nuclear weapons, and if nuclear weapons were used simultaneously, the possibility of near-total destruction would act as a shield. Therefore, the risk of nuclear war is very small.

However, the world could see a limited military strike in the future if negotiations on the Ukraine crisis fail, in which case Ukraine could see a new front opening up outside the eastern region, where pro-Russian groups are fighting for independence.

Thus, if the Ukraine crisis escalates into war, it will only be limited, not a nuclear war between two nuclear-armed sides.