A close-up view
Republic of Egypt: A brief overview
Egypt has an area of 997,000 square kilometers.2With a population of over 80 million, over 90% of the population follows Sunni Islam, while approximately 8% are Roman Catholic. Egypt is located in North Africa, with over 90% of its land being desert. The majority of the population lives around the Nile River delta. Oil and gas reserves are not large. Revenue from Suez Canal tolls and tourism accounts for a significant portion of the national GDP.
Egypt was a center of flourishing civilization in ancient times. From 3100 to 332 BC, dozens of dynasties ruled the region.
The Pharaohs ruled Egypt and they left humanity some of the world's most magnificent architectural structures - the pyramids.
In the first half of the 7th century, the Arabs invaded Egypt, and a process of transforming Egyptian society into an Arab Islamic society took place.
In the 1250s, an independent Islamic state (Egypt) was formed in what is now Egypt.
From 1517, Egypt became part of the Ottoman Empire of Türkiye.
After the French invasion of Egypt (1798-1801), the governor of Ottoman Egypt, Muhammad Ali (1769-1849), established a powerful dynasty in Egypt.
Britain occupied Egypt from 1882 and established a protectorate there from 1914 to 1922.
On July 23, 1952, the "Free Officers" staged a military coup, overthrowing the corrupt and decadent Faruch regime.
In 1953, the Republic of Egypt was established, with Gamal Abdel Nasr, the leader of the radical faction, as President. Nasrr implemented active domestic and foreign policies and made Egypt a center of the Arab nationalist movement in North Africa and the Middle East.
The second president (replacing Nasser) was Al-Wahdash. Shadash advocated reconciliation with Israel but was boycotted by the Arab world. In 1981, President Shadash was assassinated, and Hosni Mubarak took over.
Horsi Mubarak served as President of Egypt from 1981 until he was overthrown on February 11, 2011, during the "Arab Spring".
Egypt in the US and Western strategy for North Africa and the Middle East.
Egypt is the largest and most powerful country in the Islamic Arab world in the North African-Middle Eastern arc. Within Islam, Sunni Islam accounts for nearly 90%, while Shiite Islam makes up only about 10%. Egypt is the largest country in the Sunni Islamic world.
Although its natural resources (oil, gas, precious metals, etc.) are not vast or abundant, Egypt holds a particularly important geostrategic, geopolitical, and geoeconomic position in the North Africa-Middle East region.
During the East-West confrontation (1950-1991), Egypt was a crucial link that both the Soviet Union and the United States wanted to control. For a short time, Egypt had relatively close relations with the Soviet Union and other socialist countries. Afterward, Egypt shifted completely toward the US and the West. Between 1980 and 1989, Egypt sent special forces to Afghanistan to cooperate with the US, the Taliban, and other Islamist militants fighting against the Soviet Union.
For three decades under the Mubarak regime (1981-2011), Egypt consistently presented itself as one of the leading forces of the Non-Aligned Movement and a leader of the Arab Islamic world. In reality, the Mubarak government leaned heavily toward the United States, serving the interests of the US and the West in the world's richest oil and gas region.
In the North Africa-Middle East arc, the US and the West have built many alliances and friendships with countries such as Israel, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, etc., with Israel being the most important, followed by Egypt. Israel acts as a bulwark, a "high point" to control the Islamic world, while Egypt mediates conflicts between the Islamic world and Israel. Both Israel and Egypt play a leading role in protecting US and Western interests in North Africa and the Middle East, while also contributing to preventing the influence of Russia, China, and other US competitors in this strategically important region.
Since the military coup that overthrew the corrupt monarchy by the "Freedom Officers" (1952), the military has always played a dominant role in Egyptian politics. During Mubarak's rule (1981-2011), the US provided the Egyptian military with $1.3-$1.5 billion annually. It's not an exaggeration to say that the US spent money to support the Egyptian military, in return for which the Egyptian military has always been loyal in protecting US interests in Egypt in particular, and in the North Africa-Middle East region in general. Most of the generals and senior officers of the Egyptian military received their basic training in the US, UK, and France. The Egyptian military has 468,000 soldiers, making it the strongest force in Africa and ranked 10th strongest in the world.
The Egyptian constitution stipulates that when the President is unable to hold office (for any reason), he may delegate the power to the Vice President or to the Speaker of Parliament.
On February 11, 2011, before fleeing, H. Mubarak again handed over power to the military, specifically the Supreme Military Council headed by veteran General Hussein Tantawi.
Why?
This event sheds light on the role of the United States in the Mubarak regime. Was Mubarak's delegation of power to the military at the "directive" of Washington? Public opinion leans toward the answer.
Some argue that the fall of the Mubarak regime meant the US lost a strategic ally in North Africa and the Middle East. Perhaps that assessment is incorrect. The US still controls Egypt, using it as a crucial link in its regional strategy in the post-Mubarack era.
The Muslim Brotherhood seized power and then lost it. Why?
The Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928, comprised devout believers, some with extremist views who sought to impose Islamic law on society, and who were envious of, and even opposed to, other religions.
From 1928 until the fall of the Mubarak regime (January 12, 2011), for 84 years, the Muslim Brotherhood was not recognized by the Egyptian government as a legitimate socio-political organization; they lacked legal status and were not allowed to participate in the country's political life.
Morsi M. was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood's "Anti-Jewish Committee" in the 1980s. The Muslim Brotherhood in general, and Morsi M. in particular, consistently held anti-Semitic and anti-Jewish stances, refusing to recognize the existence of the Israeli state. Morsi M. was a leading opponent of Egypt's normalization of relations with Israel (the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty at Camp David, sponsored by the US, was signed in 1979).
Mr. Morsi once had good relations with the Hamas movement. As the leader of the Freedom and Justice Party (FIP), which belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood, the FIP has close ties to the AK Party of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
During the political riots that overthrew the Mubarak regime in February 2011, the Muslim Brotherhood played no significant role, mostly remaining on the sidelines as observers. The street protests that overthrew Mubarak were a coordinated effort involving numerous forces, including youth, students, secular left-wing political groups, and a large segment of the Egyptian population.
Realizing that the Mubarak regime was certain to collapse, the Muslim Brotherhood openly joined the large-scale protests of the Egyptian people in Tahrir Square in Cairo.
Following the fall of the Mubarak regime, Egypt experienced a 17-month transition period: From February 11, 2011, to June 30, 2012, the Supreme Military Council was in charge of the country.
In May 2012, Egypt held presidential elections.
In the first round of the election, Mr. Morsi received 24.8% of the votes, while the runner-up received 23.24%. In the second round of the election at the end of May 2012, Mr. Morsi won with 51.73% of the vote, becoming the first President of Egypt through a democratic election.
Why did the majority of Egyptian voters cast their ballots in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood?
Simply because they were dissatisfied with the Mubarak government and had lost faith in the figures from the Mubarak regime who were backed by the Supreme Military Council and running against Morsi.
Morsi Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, also served as President of Egypt for only 1 year and 3 days (from June 30, 2012 to July 2, 2013). Another question arises: Why did the Muslim Brotherhood government collapse so quickly?
During his election campaign (April-May 2012) and at his presidential inauguration before the Supreme Constitutional Court on June 30, 2012, Mr. Morsi pledged to over eighty million Egyptians: Although he was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, he was the President of all the Egyptian people; he would represent and protect the interests of all classes of people, all political organizations, all religions, and all ethnic groups; he would achieve national reconciliation, unite all classes of people in the task of restoring and developing the economy, improving the lives of all citizens, and enhancing Egypt's position in the Arab-Islamic world in particular, and in the region and the world in general.
During his more than one year in power, Mr. Morsi has repeatedly made mistakes in domestic and foreign policy, and more importantly, the President's actions have been inappropriate, even contradicting the promises and commitments he made during his election campaign and when he took the oath of office.
A Zogby Research Agency survey conducted in the first half of July 2013 revealed that 74% of respondents said they had lost faith in the Muslim Brotherhood.
In his very first year in office, President Morsi made several decisions that were contrary to the Constitution, essentially unconstitutional. In early June 2012, Morsi announced that he would not take the oath of office before the Supreme Constitutional Court, but rather before the National Assembly. The judges objected, and subsequently (June 30, 2012), Morsi was forced to take the oath of office before the Supreme Constitutional Court.
In July 2012, President M. Morsi issued a decree restoring Parliament (which had been dissolved by the Supreme Military Council). The Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that the President's decision was unconstitutional, and the President subsequently had to withdraw the decree.
In October 2012, President M. Morsi decided to dismiss Attorney General Aldel Meguid Mahmoud. The judges argued that, according to the law, the President does not have the power to dismiss members of the judiciary. Once again, the President had to reverse his decision.
In August 2012, President Morsi issued a decree revoking the Supplementary Constitutional Declaration adopted by the Supreme Military Council just before the second round of elections (late May 2012). Around the same time, President Morsi dismissed Defense Minister Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and Commander-in-Chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces General Sami Anan. While these decisions were not unconstitutional, they impacted the power and interests of the military, a force that had consistently dominated Egyptian politics for sixty years (since 1952).
In particular, on November 22, 2012, President M. Morsi issued a decree granting the President very broad powers, overriding the authority of the judiciary in many crucial national issues. Essentially, this decision granted the Muslim Brotherhood more power, while simultaneously restricting the power and interests of secular political organizations and progressive, democratic forces – those who orchestrated the coup that overthrew the Mubarak government in February 2011.
Thus, in the first five months of his presidency (from June 30 to November 2012), through his decrees and decisions, President M. Morsi further deepened the profound conflict (accumulated over half a century) between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Army, as well as with secular forces, parties, and political organizations leaning towards progressive and democratic ideals, with youth, students, and urban dwellers at the forefront.
President Morsi's decree of November 22, 2012, was the straw that broke the camel's back. From December 2012, a movement of increasingly large-scale street protests against the Morsi government erupted. The peak of the anti-government movement against the Muslim Brotherhood was the violent political demonstration of millions in most major cities on June 30, 2013, which resulted in clashes between forces loyal to the Morsi government and the protesters, leading to casualties. By the end of June 2013, Egypt had descended into almost uncontrollable chaos – what was inevitable happened: on July 3, 2013, the Egyptian army forced Morsi to relinquish power, and the Muslim Brotherhood government collapsed.
From every perspective, the Muslim Brotherhood has not yet met the necessary conditions to hold power (it is not yet mature or politically ready).
Where is Egypt headed?
Egypt plays a crucial role in the North African-Middle Eastern arc in general, and in the Arab-Islamic world in particular. Not only countries in the region, but also world powers are very interested in developments in Egypt. As a key link in the strategic landscape of the Africa-Middle East region, the United States, Israel, and the EU countries are especially concerned about the situation in Egypt.
How long will Egypt remain unstable, and is a prolonged conflict or civil war a possibility?
The current Egyptian political landscape is characterized by numerous organizations, political parties, and forces vying for power. When studying the internal political situation in Egypt, it's important to note a characteristic of Egyptians, especially the elite, their willingness to change positions: when they see an advantage, they can switch sides. Several officials and politicians in Mubarak's government have moved back and forth between different factions.
Among the political forces in Egypt today, two play the most important, if not decisive, roles: 1. The military and 2. The Muslim Brotherhood. In addition, there are numerous other political parties and radical secular organizations. Currently, this force relies on the military to counter the Muslim Brotherhood; in the long term, they will be the ruling force in Egypt.
The relationship between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood will shape the situation in Egypt.
In Egypt, for a long time, two things had to be acknowledged: 1. The military played a significant role in politics. Anyone attempting to eliminate the Egyptian military's considerable influence was under an illusion; 2. The Muslim Brotherhood was a powerful and objectively existing political force. If the Egyptian government attempted to eliminate the socio-political role of the Muslim Brotherhood, it would be a fatal mistake, plunging Egypt into chaos and conflict.
The current transitional government in Egypt, and any democratically elected governments that follow, regardless of which faction holds the presidency, must be tolerant of the Muslim Brotherhood and invite them to participate in nation-building (they must have real power, not just be decorative figures in the government).
At the same time, the Muslim Brotherhood must abandon its path of confrontation and extremist opposition to secular and progressive political organizations and parties, and must integrate into society to create broad harmony for the sake of justice, democracy, and progress. Those in positions of responsibility within the Muslim Brotherhood must accept the objective reality that it is impossible to impose Sharia Islamic law on Egyptian society.
For the next few years, and possibly even longer, neither the Muslim Brotherhood nor the opposition forces with the military as their core have been able to achieve the aforementioned goals. Therefore, Egypt remains unstable, but a conflict or civil war like the one in Syria is unlikely.
Let's not forget: Egypt's stability, whether it's stable or unstable, has always remained under American control.
Major General Le Van Cuong (Former Director of the Institute of Strategy - Ministry of Public Security)
