A Closer Look
The Republic of Egypt: An Overview
Egypt has an area of 997,000km2with more than 80 million people. More than 90% of the population is Sunni Muslim, about 8% Roman Catholic. Egypt is in the North of Africa, more than 90% of the area is desert. Most of the population lives around the Nile Delta. Oil and gas reserves are not large. Suez Canal tolls and tourism account for a large proportion of the national GDP.
Egypt was a flourishing center of civilization in ancient times. From 3100 to 332 BC, dozens of dynasties
Pharaohs ruled Egypt and they left humanity the most magnificent architectural works in the world - the Pyramids.
In the first half of the 7th century, the Arabs invaded Egypt and began a process of transforming Egyptian society into an Arab Islamic society.
In the 1250s, on the land of present-day Egypt, an independent Islamic state (Egypt) was formed.
From 1517, Egypt became part of the Ottoman Empire of Türkiye.
After the French invasion of Egypt (1798 - 1801), the Ottoman Governor Mohammed Ali (1769 - 1849) established a powerful dynasty in Egypt.
Britain occupied Egypt in 1882 and established a protectorate there from 1914 to 1922.
On July 23, 1952, the "Free Officers" staged a military coup to overthrow the corrupt and rotten Pha-ruc dynasty.
1953 The Republic of Egypt was established, with Gamal Apden Nasser, leader of the radical faction, as President. Nasser implemented an active domestic and foreign policy and made Egypt the center of the Arab nationalist movement in North Africa and the Middle East.
The second president (replacing Naser) was An-ua Sadat. Sadat advocated reconciliation with Israel but was boycotted by the Arab world. In 1981, President Sadat was assassinated and Hosni Mubarak took over.
Horsi Mubarak was President of Egypt from 1981 to February 11, 2011, when he was overthrown in the “Arab Spring”.
Egypt in the North Africa – Middle East strategy of the US and the West
Egypt is the largest and most powerful country in the Arab-Islamic world in the North Africa - Middle East arc. In Islam, Sunni Islam accounts for nearly 90%, Shiite Islam accounts for only about 10%. Egypt is the largest country in the Sunni Muslim world.
Although its natural resources (oil, gas, precious metals, etc.) are not large or rich, Egypt has a particularly important geo-strategic, geo-political, and geo-economic position in the North Africa - Middle East region.
During the East-West confrontation (1950-1991), Egypt was an important link that both the Soviet Union and the United States wanted to control. For a short time, Egypt had quite close relations with the Soviet Union and socialist countries. After that, Egypt leaned towards the United States and the West. During the period 1980-1989, Egypt sent special forces to Afghanistan to collaborate with the United States and the Taliban along with Islamic jihadists against the Soviet Union.
During the thirty years of H. Mubarak's reign (1981 - 2011), Egypt always considered itself one of the leading flags of the Non-Aligned Movement and the leader of the Arab-Muslim world. In fact, the H. Mubarak government leaned towards the US, serving the interests of the US and the West in the region richest in oil and gas in the world.
In the North Africa - Middle East arc, the US and the West have built many allied and friendly countries such as Israel, Tunisia, Egypt, Georgia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, etc., the most important of which is Israel, the second is Egypt. Israel plays the role of a checkpoint, a "high point" to control the Muslim world, while Egypt mediates the conflict between the Muslim world and Israel. Both Israel and Egypt play the role of shock forces to protect the interests of the US and the West in North Africa - Middle East, while contributing to preventing the influence of Russia, China and US competitors in this important strategic region.
Since the military coup that overthrew the corrupt monarchy of the “Free Officers” (1952), the Army has always played a dominant role in Egyptian politics. During Mubarak’s tenure (1981-2011), the US annually provided the Egyptian Army with 1.3-1.5 billion USD. It is not an exaggeration to say that the US spent money to support the Egyptian Army, in return the Egyptian Army has always been loyal to protecting US interests in Egypt in particular, and in the North Africa - Middle East region in general. Most of the generals and mid- and high-ranking officers of the Egyptian Army received basic training in the US, UK, and France. The Egyptian Army has 468,000 soldiers, is the strongest force in Africa and is ranked 10th strongest in the world.
The Egyptian Constitution stipulates: When the President is unable to hold power (for some reason), he can hand over the power to run the country to the Vice President or to the Speaker of the National Assembly.
On February 11, 2011, before fleeing, H. Mubarak handed over power to the army, directly to the Supreme Military Council headed by veteran general Hussein Tantawi.
Why?
Through this event, we can understand the role of the US in the Mubarak Government. Was Mubarak giving power to the Army under Washington's "directive"? Public opinion leans towards the affirmative.
Some people believe that the fall of the Mubarak regime caused the US to lose a strategic ally in North Africa and the Middle East. Perhaps, that is not true. The US still holds Egypt, using Egypt as an important link in their regional strategy in the post-Mubarak period.
The Muslim Brotherhood seized power and then lost it. Why?
The Muslim Brotherhood movement was founded in 1928 and included devout believers, some with extremist ideas who wanted to impose Islamic law on society, who were jealous of, and even opposed to, other religions.
From 1928 until the fall of the H. Mubarak government (January 12, 2011), for 84 years, the Muslim Brotherhood was not recognized by the Egyptian government as a legitimate political and social organization. They had no legal status and were not allowed to participate in the country's political life.
Mr. M. Morsi was a member of the “Anti-Semitic Committee” of the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1980s. The Muslim Brotherhood in general and Mr. M. Morsi in particular have always had an anti-Semitic, anti-Jewish stance and do not recognize the existence of the Jewish State of Israel. Mr. M. Morsi was the leader in opposing Egypt’s normalization of relations with the State of Israel (sponsored by the US to sign the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty at Camp David in 1979).
Mr. Morsi used to have a good relationship with the Hamas movement. He is the head of the Freedom and Justice Party (FIP) of the Muslim Brotherhood and the FIP Party has a fairly close relationship with the AK Party of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Taygip Erdogan.
In the political riots that overthrew the H.Mubarack government in February 2011, the Muslim Brotherhood did not play a significant role, they mainly "stood on the sidelines" and observed. The street protests that overthrew Mubarak were due to the alliance and coordination of many forces including youth, students, secular leftist political forces and the majority of Egyptian people.
When it was realized that the M. Mubarak government would certainly collapse, the Muslim Brotherhood forces openly participated in the large-scale protest movement of the Egyptian people in Tahrir Square in Cairo.
After the fall of the M. Mubarak government, Egypt went through a 17-month transition period: From February 11, 2011 to June 30, 2012, the Supreme Military Council took control of the country.
In May 2012, Egypt held a presidential election.
In the first round of the election, Mr. M. Morsi received 24.8% of the votes, the second place received 23.24% of the votes. In the second round of the election at the end of May 2012, Mr. M. Morsi won with 51.73% of the votes, and became the first President in Egypt through a democratic election.
Why did the majority of Egyptian voters vote in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood?
Simply because they are dissatisfied with the M.Mubarack Government and have lost confidence in the figures of the M.Mubarack dynasty supported by the Supreme Military Council to run against Mr. Morsi.
Mr. Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, was also the President of Egypt for only 1 year and 3 days (from June 30, 2012 to July 2, 2013). Another question: Why did the Muslim Brotherhood Government collapse so quickly?
During the election campaign (April, May 2012) and at the swearing-in ceremony before the Supreme Constitutional Court on June 30, 2012, Mr. M. Morsi pledged before more than eighty million Egyptians: Although he is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, he is the President of all Egyptian people, he will represent and protect the interests of all classes of people, all political organizations, all religions, and all ethnicities; he will achieve national harmony, unite all classes of people in the task of restoring and developing the economy, improving the lives of all people, and enhancing Egypt's position in the Arab-Muslim world in particular, in the region and in the world in general.
During more than 1 year in power, Mr. M. Morsi has continuously made many mistakes in domestic and foreign policies, and more importantly, the President's actions are inappropriate, even going against what he promised and committed when running for election and when taking the oath of office.
A survey by Zogby Research Agency in the first half of July 2013 showed that 74% of respondents said they had lost confidence in the Muslim Brotherhood.
In his first year in office, President M. Morsi made a number of decisions that were contrary to the Constitution, and in fact unconstitutional. In early June 2012, Mr. Morsi announced that he would not take the oath of office before the Supreme Constitutional Court, but would instead take the oath of office before the National Assembly. The judges objected, and later (June 30, 2012) Mr. Morsi had to take the oath of office before the Supreme Constitutional Court.
In July 2012, President M. Morsi issued a decree to restore the National Assembly (which had been dissolved by the Supreme Military Council). The Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that the President's decision was unconstitutional, and the President was forced to withdraw the decree.
In October 2012, President M. Morsi decided to dismiss the Prosecutor General Aldel Meguid Mahmoud. The judges said: According to the law, the President does not have the right to dismiss members of the Judiciary. Once again, the President had to withdraw his decision.
In August 2012, President M. Morsi issued a decree to cancel the Supplementary Constitutional Declaration approved by the Supreme Military Council right before the second round of elections (late May 2012). Also during this time, President M. Morsi decided to dismiss Minister of Defense Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and Commander-in-Chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces General Sami Anan. These decisions were not unconstitutional but affected the power and interests of the Army, the force that has continuously dominated Egyptian politics for sixty years (since 1952).
In particular, on November 22, 2012, President M. Morsi issued a decree giving the President great power, with many important issues of the country, the President overrode the power of the Judiciary. In essence, this decision gave the Muslim Brotherhood more power, while limiting the power and interests of secular political organizations, of progressive and democratic forces - those who made the coup to overthrow the H. Mubarak Government in February 2011.
Thus, in the first 5 months of his term in office (from June 30 to November 2012), through his decrees and decisions, President M. Morsi has deepened the deep conflict (which has accumulated for more than half a century) between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Army and with secular forces, political parties and organizations in a progressive and democratic direction, whose front lines are youth, students and citizens.
The decree of November 22, 2012 of President M. Morsi was like the last straw. Since December 2012, there has been a movement of increasingly large-scale street protests against the M. Morsi government. The climax of the anti-government movement of the Muslim Brotherhood was the violent political demonstration of millions of people in most major cities on June 30, 2013, and there were clashes between forces loyal to the M. Morsi government and protesters leading to casualties. In the last days of June 2013, Egypt fell into almost uncontrollable chaos - What had to happen, happened: July 3, 2013, the Egyptian army forced Mr. Morsi to leave power, the government of the Muslim Brotherhood collapsed.
In all respects, the Muslim Brotherhood does not yet have the necessary conditions to hold power (immature, politically immature).
Where is Egypt going?
Egypt plays an important role in the North Africa - Middle East arc in general, and in the Arab - Islamic world in particular. Not only countries in the region, but also world powers are very interested in the developments in Egypt. As an important link in the strategic arrangement in the Africa - Middle East region, more than anyone else, the US, Israel and EU countries are especially interested in the situation in Egypt.
How long will Egypt remain unstable and is there a possibility of prolonged conflict and civil war?
In Egypt's current political arena, there are many organizations, political parties, and forces that have been and are competing for power. When studying the internal political situation in Egypt, it is necessary to pay attention to a characteristic of the Egyptian people, especially the elite, which is that they are willing to change their views: When they see an advantage, they can move from one side to another. Some officials and politicians in the Mubarak administration have been running around like a shuttle from one side to another.
Among the political forces in Egypt today, there are two forces that play the most important, if not decisive, role in the political arena: 1. The Army and; 2. The Muslim Brotherhood. In addition, there are many political parties and radical secular organizations. In the short term, these forces rely on the Army to deal with the Muslim Brotherhood; in the long term, they will be the governing force in Egypt.
The relationship between the Army and the Muslim Brotherhood will shape the situation in Egypt.
In Egypt, for a long time, two things have to be acknowledged: 1. The army plays a major role in politics. Anyone who wants to eliminate the great influence of the Egyptian army is delusional; 2. The Muslim Brotherhood is a huge political force and exists objectively. If the Egyptian government wants to eliminate the political and social role of the Muslim Brotherhood, it will be a fatal mistake, which will push Egypt into chaos and conflict.
The current transitional government in Egypt and the democratically elected governments in the future, regardless of which force is the President, if they want stability, they must be tolerant of the Muslim Brotherhood and invite them to participate in the government to build the country (they must have real power and not be a decoration in the government).
At the same time, the Muslim Brotherhood must abandon the path of confrontation and extreme opposition to secular and radical political organizations and parties and must integrate into society to create deep social harmony for justice, democracy and progress. Those in charge of the Muslim Brotherhood must accept the objective reality that it is impossible to impose Sharia Law on Egyptian society.
In the next few years, and perhaps even longer, neither the Muslim Brotherhood nor the opposition forces with the Army as the core will be able to achieve the above. Therefore, Egypt will remain unstable, but conflicts and civil wars like those in Syria are unlikely to occur.
Let us not forget: Egypt's stability or instability is always under the control of the United States.
Major General Le Van Cuong (Former Director of the Institute of Strategy - Ministry of Public Security)
